What's the Sign the Public Has Caught On?

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I've been reviewing my preparation check lists. CNBC -- the Kings of Cluelessness -- are on in the background. During the past several days we've had all sorts of media attention to y2k, ranging from the ABC 'soundbites' with Ed Yourdan and Gary North, to another commentary from 700 Cub, (with Cory Yamasaki), to articles in US News, Chicago Tribune, Washington Post, and so on. From CNBC -- nothing.

During all of this I've talked to casual acquaintances. "Oh, yeah, I've heard 'bout that." is a typical reply. This is usually followed by, "Gee, the market's down another 20 points. Wonder what's wrong?"

I've decided that we have until CNBC catches on in order to make our preparations. That may be a while, since they don't seem to focus on anything more than 2 weeks in the future. 'Bout the time the market drops through the 7000 level, though, they'll wake up, look around, and see what's happening. That's when I know a critical mass in the public has caught on.

That's also when I know we're *really* in deep yogurt.

Two weeks after that, y2k will be written into the theme of a soap, and the panic will be on.

What's going to be your own personal trip wire? When will *you* know to head for the hills? When will we know that any preparations we haven't completed are too late?

-- Rocky Knolls (rknolls@hotmail.com), June 03, 1998

Answers

Sen. Benett (Utah) had a good comment related to this on CSPAN2 yesterday. He said that Wall Street should discover Y2K soon, because financial managers were starting to take notice, and what they do on the stock market is impossible to ignore.

I think the market will be *THE* indicator. A sliding market may also darken the skys of "The Zipper", if Starr doesn't get to him first.

I see two possibilities for Joe Six-pack waking-up. 1) The market "nose-dives", and the Y2K explanation is given OR 2) Polititians "take-up the cause" of Y2K

My cracked, foggy crystal-ball says scenario #1 will be the ice-breaker after FY2000 starts for various agencies & companies next year.

-- Phil (pperucci@mindspring.com), June 03, 1998.


I've been watching the bestseller list from _Publisher's Weekly_- if you want to mount your own survey it's at http://www.bookwire.com/pw/bsl/bestseller-index.html. When a Y2K book makes the 'Hardcover Fiction' or 'Trade Paperback' list, you can figure the public has caught on- all of them that are likely too anyway.

Right now there isn't even a Y2K book on the 'Computer' bestseller list... .

LPL

-- Lee P. Lapin (lplapin@hotmail.com), June 03, 1998.


How will I know? When my wife starts to take it seriously. Actually, I think some awareness is trickling out already. Just this week I looked into buyng a used genset through a statewide for-sale publication and found that all five of the advertised generators had been sold the day after the ads appeared. I heard China Diesel is has a three-month backlog. Is this significant or is it their normal delay? Anyone know?

-- J.D. Clark (yankeejdc@aol.com), June 03, 1998.

The China Diesel company is now 14 weeks backlogged on the larger gensets....but I think that those who have heard and heeded Y2k news are watching for it and it is occupying more of their time and thoughts, and maybe we are a little overbalanced in the actual view of things in measuring the impact on thers.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), June 03, 1998.

The "Tipping Point" for Y2K is rapidly approaching. When this issue first gelled with me a few months ago I figured 3Q 99 would be the beginning- now 3Q 98 seems a little outside. A great deal of info on Y2k is available and credible as of a few months ago, so the critical mass- daily news reports, panicky "Dateline NBC" stories, CNN specials- should appear soon. Then, it is anybodys guess what kind of s***storm will develop.

-- Richard Dale Fitzgerald 2 (Daledoe@bnoc.net), June 04, 1998.


You'll know when the masses buy into it when resources shift from investment vehicles to survival/disaster preparedness commodities. Storeable foods, fuels and containers to store them in, gold and silver, firearms and ammo, etc. will soar in price while the stock markets dive. Rural real estate up, urban and suburban down. Gensets, solar panels, tractors, water pumps, tillers, etc become high priced and scarce. Talking heads begin downplaying potential impact. Gov. draws up emergency and contingiency plans (happening now)

-- grant (cblakely@htcomp.net), June 06, 1998.

1.There'll be a big rush on candles and the prices will escalate. 2.Someone will desigh, market, and SELL a security alarm for your mattress (where you stash your cash). 3.The clerks at the computer cash registers will be forced to take a crash course in basic math - just in case they have to compute your change from a $20.

-- tamie smith (tasmith@nm-us.campus.mci.net), June 07, 1998.

1.There'll be a big rush on candles and the prices will escalate. 2.Someone will desigh, market, and SELL a security alarm for your mattress (where you stash your cash). 3.The clerks at the computer cash registers will be forced to take a crash course in basic math - just in case they have to compute your change from a $20.

(First attempt to send above msg. - it was returned, so I tried again. Here's part of the header: 550 norrielock@webtv.net... User unknown. Now what?)

-- tamie smith (tasmith@nm-us.campus.mci.net), June 07, 1998.


"Those in the know"( those in this forum) seem to be assuming the worst, which is suspicious. We are dealing with probabilities, not certainties. Efforts are going forward, however belated. Public confidence is great. When the market tumbles, I don't believe it will be a result of y2k. This is not the only problem staring us in the face. If it were only y2k, I wouldn't be so worried. My tripwire is a great quake on the west coast. Or a sudden, dramatic downturn in the Japanese status quo. Or a nuclear exchange between India & Pakistan. There are others. It is everything else + y2k.

-- Joseph Danison (JDanison@aol.com), June 08, 1998.

On Gary North's website, in the articles area....subheading Programmers...there is a fairly recent article from a programmer,...I can't remember his name, begins with an H. It is entitled Tripwires, signposts of various Y2K problems.

It goes: if this is not fixed, then I will be doing this. If this agency doesn't do such and such by this date, I will be doing this, etc.

http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/search_.cfm#Choices

I think you'll find it at the above URL.

-- Donna Barthuley (moment@pacbell.net), June 10, 1998.



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