It's like learning poker from strangersgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I have been trying to learn all I can about this situation for the past few months. I have no computer skills, so like anyone else would do, I seek the experts. Now the rules keep changing, just like when I first learned to play poker from some older guys in the military so many years ago.
The Gartner group is reported to have just increased the estimate of remediation from approx $1.10 per line to approx $6.42 per line. On that basis, there ain't enough money in the world to pay for remediation.
Gary North is reported to be selling cancer cures for $99.99 each. Who has time for cancer if what he predicts comes true? Why sell it for a hundred bucks? Isn't he a man of the cloth?
Dr. Yardeni says that if the politicians were to tell the truth, it would spread panic. He even says that a little panic wouldn't be so bad. Yet he will not upgrade his his predictions of recession from 60% to 100% despite the fact that the G8 conference practically ignored the y2k issue and he said he would do so if that occurred.
Am I going to lose my shirt this time too, just like when I learned to play poker? Just because I don't know the rules? Should we make them up as we go along?
-- Bill Solorzano (firstname.lastname@example.org), May 24, 1998
It's like all things in life. You place your bets and play the hand you get.
Research it yourself and make your own decisions. life is like that. Yardini and North are not Gods nor prophets, just men. No better than you. It never pays to place ultimate faith in a mans word, especially ones you have not met.
-- art welling (email@example.com), May 24, 1998.
The best thing to do is research it for yourself. I was on Dennis Elenburg's mailing list and had great faith in his updates! He then tried to start selling me products every day. He even suggested a type of chain letter with food. I was disgusted. Some of these guys turn out to be real kooks. Follow the news stores on the "press clippings" site. It's very helpful.
-- Annie (firstname.lastname@example.org), May 25, 1998.
Dear Bill (notaclue)
Yours is a very thought provoking comment. I have found some of my best Y2K information on Gary North's site. He has been predicting disaster or depression of one sort or another for the last 20 years, so I read as eating the fish and spitting out the bones.
I also like the presentation by John Westergaard in his "Westergaard Year 2000" report. It is updated daily. He has a lot of political connections as advisor to Moynihan so he tends to keep his whits about him.
Whenever we talk about predicting the future, there will always be an element of chance if we rely upon any prediction. Even the biblical prophets rarely knew when their predictions would come to pass. Some, like much of Ezekiel's, still have not occurred after some 2,600 years.
North, Yardeni and Gartner are not sure of the extent of what will happen. They each are apparently certain that some serious happenings will occur. They have taken various precautions themselves. They must each still currently make a living.
Will you lose your shirt this time? Perhaps sooner? Perhaps later? You might lose it if you wait and do nothing. I too have been reading, trying to determine just how serious I think this will be. I don't know, but if you read enough and dig enough, you will find that this is not a phenomenon that has been created from nothing by doomsday journalists and wannabe prophets. This is a real looming storm on the horizon.
A wise man once said that: "when it is evening, you say, It will be fair weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, It will be foul weather today: for the sky is red and lowering...you can discern the face of the sky; but you cannot discern the signs of the times."
As a Christian minister, I have been grappling with this just as you have, trying to discern the signs of the times. May the Lord help us all.
-- Rev. Stephen L. Bening (Gammadim@AOL.com), May 27, 1998.
When I lost at poker, all I lost was my shirt, (My late fathers watch too) but what is at stake for you is other people, perhaps your congregation. Perhaps your reputation. I know how people look at me when I bring this issue up in public. Your people may not stare at you with open mouths and blank faces, but I bet you will see fewer and fewer of them on Sunday. In another thread in this ng I said that I envied Moses because his job was easy. He was taking his people from slavery, not high paying jobs, and he was getting direct orders from the big guy upstairs. I don't think you have quite the same advantage. Good Luck Rev.
-- Bill Solorzano (email@example.com), May 27, 1998.