Dr. Yardeni, who is an emminent economist, and who believes that we have at least a 60% chance of having a global recession, will not allow us to enter his web page without giving him our useless and worthless greenback dollars. What does he know that perhaps we don't know..

-- Bill Solorzano (notaclue@webtv.net), May 18, 1998

Answers

When Dr. Yardeni talks about "60% chance of a global recession", he is *not* talking about TEOTWAWKI. His scenario is more along the lines of what happened in the 1974-5 recession. That was a pretty bad recession (arguably the worse since the Great Depression). The Dow dropped something like 40% and contributed to the "stagflation" and high high unemployment which lingered until 1981-2.

This is not the same prognosis as someone like Dr. Gary North who sees a recession along the lines of The Black Death or "The Fall of Rome"!

-- Andrew J. Jackson (ajackson@onramp.net), May 18, 1998.

Dear Mr. Jackson.(with a name like Andrew Jackson, what else could I call you?) In a strange way I am heartend by the fact that my money is worth something to someone, especially someone such as Dr. Yardeni who should know a lot more than we masses, dare I say swine? Dr. Yardeni said he was going to elevate his percentage of chances of global recession to 80% if G-8 did not consider y2k in it's discussions. Y2k came in #25 on the G-8 agenda. #26 and final item on the agenda was where they were going to meet next year. I guess Yardeni does not have to stick his neck out any further. A lot of people who read this discussion page have stuck their collective necks out a lot further than 60%.

-- Bill Solorzano (notaclue@webtv.net), May 18, 1998.

Dr. Yardeni seems to be sending mixed messsages about y2k. He says 60% chance of recession increased to 100% if the G8 thing doesn't pan out, then other times, sometimes in the same paragraph, he hints at the chance of a depression. My personal opinion is that he thinks things are going to be much worse than he lets on. He is trying to be rational and conservative so people will listen.

Also, I wasn't required to pay any money to access his web site. Not sure what site you're referring to.

-- Tommy (nearclear@hotmail.com), May 19, 1998.

Dr. Yardeni has a portion of his website that is for subscribers, which is the business he is in of selling economic information. However, he also has extensive information available to the public. I frequently go there to get the free information on Y2K, which is of excellent quality, in my opinion. There is a very interesting discussion/debate which includes Dr. Yardeni and two other eminent economists at www.cio.com/forums/y2k/ which is worth taking a look at. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>

-- Dan Hunt (dhunt@hostscorp.com), May 19, 1998.

I stand corrected. I guess I was looking at his paid web page. Thank you.

-- Bill Solorzano (notaclue@webtv.net), May 19, 1998.

Ed Yardeni has lied again. Read his own words. He said that if they did not declare war on y2k at the G8 metting he would raise his estimate closer to 100%. He flat out stated that they did not declare war and yet refused to raise his estimate.

This is not the first time that Yardeni has lied. He is more concerned about appearances and his 'reception' than he is in the truth.

Read his web page. He said the G8 was serious. They had an 'implicit' agreement to share info. If the were serious, it would be 'explicit, he said that they have provided for no budget and no other formalities. Yet he believes thi is seroius. Ed Yardeni is not serious. He continues to lie; from his own mouth we have his words.

In his recent writing he has said that the government id withholding the true nature of the severity of the impact of Y2K. Why? because if it were known, panic would ensue, and so, no one wants to be the first one to release the information and as a result many will have less time to prepare. The panic will be inevitable. It is better that it occurs now,under controlable circumstances while the infrastructure is still intact. The sooner the better.

Yardeni is a posturing fool who pretends to be in the vanguard, but all along is actually down playing the whole thing. Yardeni will cause more harm by this than if he did nothing at all.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), May 23, 1998.