Totally worthless unscientific Y2K poll #1 (4-98)

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Howdy folks,

Ok, all other things aside, I would like to have a completely unscientific and probably worthless poll. Why? Because I am curious, one of my many many faults.

Q1: Is Y2K likely to be a serious problem in the lives of everyday citizens?

Q2: How serious do YOU think it will get? Quantify this in any way you choose. Hints...1-10 scale, "really,like, Uh Huh scary, man", yawn, etc etc.

Q3: IF the answers to 1 and 2 are way out in the frightening end of the freak out scale, have you started making PERSONAL preparations? (not business)

Q4: If as above, do you think the general public will ever become aware of the ramifications of Y2K, and when might that happen? What will trigger such an amazing mass eye opener?

Q5: Who REALLY shot JR?

Q6: Dwelling on one facet alone, take a wild SWAG on what might happen if the IRS loses the ability to use it's various systems.

-- art welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), April 21, 1998

Answers

A1: Yes very, very serious

A2: A 7-9, but not at first, the ripple/domino effect will take months

A3: Yes extensive preparations but most of these have been in place for over a decade in anticipation of earthquakes

A4: yes, but way too late, when things start falling apart in late 1999 in banking

A6: Smaller federal government, much smaller if in functional existance at all

-- R.Watt (rkwatt@hotmail.com), April 21, 1998.


Ok, all other things aside, I would like to have a completely unscientific and probably worthless poll. Why? Because I am curious, one of my many many faults.

Q1: Is Y2K likely to be a serious problem in the lives of everyday citizens?

Absolutely

Q2: How serious do YOU think it will get? Quantify this in any way you choose. Hints...1-10 scale, "really,like, Uh Huh scary, man", yawn, etc etc.

9 unless power grid goes down completely then a 10

Q3: IF the answers to 1 and 2 are way out in the frightening end of the freak out scale, have you started making PERSONAL preparations? (not business)

At full speed

Q4: If as above, do you think the general public will ever become aware of the ramifications of Y2K, and when might that happen? What will trigger such an amazing mass eye opener?

When bank runs start in 1st quarter of 1999.

Q5: Who REALLY shot JR?

I confess

Q6: Dwelling on one facet alone, take a wild SWAG on what might happen if the IRS loses the ability to use it's various systems.

Me along with everyone else will not pay any taxes.

-- Joe Stout (joewstout@iswt.com), April 22, 1998.


>Q1: Is Y2K likely to be a serious problem in the lives of everyday >citizens?

Yes, it will affect every person in the world to one extent or another.

>Q2: How serious do YOU think it will get? Quantify this in any way >you choose. Hints...1-10 scale, "really,like, Uh Huh scary, man", >yawn, etc etc.

Extremely scary!!!

>Q3: IF the answers to 1 and 2 are way out in the frightening end of the >freak out scale, have you started making PERSONAL preparations? >(not business)

Yes. I've prepared to move out of a metropolitan area into a rural area by the end of the year. I've converted my retirement account into gold and silver. I've told my relatives the extent of the problem. I've alienated several of my friends and convinced others that a serious societal change is coming.

>Q4: If as above, do you think the general public will ever become >aware of the ramifications of Y2K, and when might that happen? What >will trigger such an amazing mass eye opener?

Eventually, the media will begin to harp on this problem incessantly. At that point, I expect the government to intervene "for the good of the public" (ha ha).

>Q5: Who REALLY shot JR?

I have no idea.

>Q6: Dwelling on one facet alone, take a wild SWAG on what might >happen if the IRS loses the ability to use it's various systems.

Since the IRS provides 95% of the revenue of the US government, I would guess that the collapse of the IRS would precipitate the fall of the US government.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), April 22, 1998.


  1. Yes. An order of magnitude beyond the Great Depression.
  2. 10. I expend a great deal of time and energy on the subject and have been doing so for almost two years.
  3. Yes. Though my efforts are hampered by my wife's inability to look at the issue rationally.
  4. Yes. Sometime between September of 1998 and October of 1999, something will fail. Something big. Something that is obviously and unquestionably Y2K-related. Probably something in government, utilities, or banking, in that order or probablity. Not having detailed access to those entities, I have no idea what it will be. But something will fail that will be big enough to get the average person's attention.
  5. Me. No, wait -- I didn't start buying gun until last year, as a Y2K-preparedness issue. I guess it must have been somebody else.
  6. I operate on that assumption. In fact, it's why I'm using an alias here: I openly suggest to people that they take maximum deductions in 1999 and purchase precious metals with the money their employer would have been collecting for IRS. However, what will happen is this: economic chaos. The public debt is financed in large part by IRS tax receipts and consumer confidence. Take away tax receipts and you will affect consumer confidence in Federal securities. Even assuming that other IS/IT infrastructures are still functioning, this will trigger mass bail-outs on the securities which fund the Public Debt. The government would then attempt to monitize the debt, thereby triggering hyperinflation.

    Frankly, though, it's a pretty moot point. IRS isn't the only entitity with problems. You can't just isolate them as thought they were.



-- "John Smith" (pobox42@hotmail.com), April 22, 1998.

1. For some, yes, for others, not so bad. See, I don't assume the collapse of society as we know it as do many of my fellow posters.

2. Again, it depends. On a 1-10 scale: For society as a whole, 3-4. For some businesses/individuals, 10. I would be surprised if many people get away with less than a 2.

3. Yes, I have made some personal preparations. No retreat, no year's supply of food, no gold bars buried in a lockbox n the back yard. Still, I have altered some practices and plan on making other adjustments as the situation grows.

4. The "general public" will become aware of the problem when they generally do: after it happens.

5. I don't know, but I see in my weekly program schedule that the varmint has another chance this week!

6. I suspect that if the IRS loses the ability to use it's various systems that they will still find a way to collect the taxes. Sure things, death and taxes, etc.

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@compuserve.com), April 22, 1998.



Q1: Yes, I think it will be a significant problem Q2: I am beginning to think this will reach nightmare proportions, at a level 10. I tend to believe that someone, one we Christians call "the antichrist", will arise with a solution and the whole world will be grateful to him. After that, we will have one world government. Q3: To be honest, I found out about Y2K on April 17. I have had one week to get on the net and try to ascertain whether this is a real problem or a lot of Christian apocalyptic hype. I have now seen that this problem is not a figment of some Christian's overactive imagination. My responses: 1) I intend to speak to my Father about it, giving him some of my research. 2) I intend to be visiting my Father in rural Illinois on 7/1/99 and 1/1/2000. My family will not be in South Florida where we live now. 3) All my other preparations are under consideration right now. Among them: cash and silver in hand, generator, gardening supplies, firewood, electric well, manual well, gasoline tank, pre 1980 pickup truck, food storage, greenhouse. I figure that these preparations could be made for $10,000. 4) If 100,000 became available, I would construct a cabin and purchase 40 acres in Southern Illinois, probably Johnson or Alexander County: 20 acres wooded and 20 acres tillable, just in case. If nothing happens, I have a beautiful retreat on the edge of a National Forest.

Q4: I have read that there is a likelihood that the IRS computers may go down on 7/1/99 along with Social Security. I believe that if 66 million Americans fail to receive their wire transfers or social security checks in that week, you will see some headlines!

Q5: He's on TV this week, so rumours of his demise were apparently greatly exagerated. We must hold on to our ability to laugh!

Q6: I was a CPA in public practice from 1978 to 1987. I still have a CAF number that all tax practitioners receive from IRS when they represent a client before the IRS. Their computer has been near crash for many years. They have tried to move it off of mainframes before but the attempts failed. The problem is that the database is so huge and it is disconnected. They have tried to deal with this for years. A taxpayer who has problems with IRS in one district, say Southeast, can simply rent a P.O. Box in the central district and file in Kansas City. The service has had terrible problems tracking taxpayers from district to district already. The IRS has each taxpayer's history of their account on the computer. I believe that this account information is what is kept on the 3038 mainframes that IBM has said they will take no responsibility for. If these mainframes go down, IRS will not be able to tell a taxpayer what their balance due is for each tax year. As I have dealt with IRS in the past, they always go by what is in the computer. Somewhere, of course, they have the original tax return you filed, but they need to look on the computer to see what district you resided in when you filed it. For people who have frequently moved from district to district, there is no telling what is in your paper file. I have never seen an agent produce a paper file. I don't even know if they are able to. They always produce the printout of the taxpayer's account. I tend to think that if this was the only information they lost, they would be permanently crippled. It would be like what happens when a bank loses your signed mortgage document. This happens occasionally in bank frauds. They can't enforce the debt against you. If IRS loses the ability to know what you owe, or issue a deficiency notice based on your taxpayer account, what will happen to voluntary compliance by the average taxpayer who owes IRS money for back years? Would you pay if they stopped threatening to lien your bank account? If they stopped sending you notices? Will people file the 1999 return on April 15, 2000? I will recommend to my clients that they file an extension and wait and see. Currently, IRS sometimes loses track of payments that taxpayer's make. What will happen if they lose the system. Chaos!

-- Rev. Stephen L. Bening (Gammadim@AOL.com), April 23, 1998.


Q1. Yes. Q2. 8-9 unless both banks and power goes down then 10. Q3. Yes, we have moved, are building a new home with various features which we hope will be effective. We have made other adjustments also. Q4. Possibly next year when the states try to roll over their budgets, when the Euro doesn't work-almost any number of events could trigger it, including the market breaking down. Q6. The IRS doesn't collect the money, the Treasury does. Small point. One of the newsletter writers says that the IRS is only an instrument of social engineering and that what they do has nothing to do with money, but totally with control. When you think about the amount of information that they "currently" have on us and how intrusive government is in our lives, it is not beyond reason to assume that this writer may be correct in his assumption. Several writers have assumed that the Government by decree can change money instruments from short term to long term and make them illiquid by a stroke of a pen(Clinton's). If they do that and I would imagine that it could be stocks and bonds also from the private sector, then the IRS wouldn't have to pay out interest right away or ever if they decided not to. The financial markets overseas would be destroyed, but then when a crisis at home develops, damn the other folks, lets keep the guys in office here and make them heros! What I am trying to say in a very poor way is this: I think the IRS, the Treasury, and the US Government will do ANYTHING within its power to maintain itself. Doesn't have to be legal or even fair or anything, just something to keep them functioning. We only need to look at various more recent events to confirm this: WACO, Ruby Ridge, OK City Trials, IRS collection actions, Clinton and the various actions in the past 5+ years.

-- Gene Peterson (carvgene@gis.net), April 26, 1998.

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