If we go along with the hypothesis (as I do) that Mr. Cowles presented some time ago that it is a virtual certainty that major portions of the US electric infastructure will be damaged and inoperable after 1/1/2000, then how does it get repaired? Without significant power (assuming some emergency backup is available--but not alot), how do the repairs get done? With all the useless (read: noncompliant) systems, replacement seems like an option. That is until you consider that very little of that old technology is available. Perhaps we could retrofit (actually, not "we", but good elec. engineers) some equipment? But how do they retrofit it without power to manufacturing facilities? What is those facilities are noncompliant and ground to a halt? Somebody please convince me that this is an unreasonable question. I don't see it being asked, and I can't for the life of me answer it (actually it is a lot of questions all rolled into one--are as most I have re: y2k).

-- Anonymous, March 07, 1998

Answers

Look, the answer is simplicity and also very difficult. I am just a dummass boilermaker by trade, built a few power plants here and there over the last 25 years, and, unless there is some real good battle-planning, and battle-planning is what I mean, then we will have to cut back and isolate to small areas around each boiler and power station. Such plants as 4-corners in NM spring to mind, because they are close to the coal. There are others around the nation. There will be a limited time to get them back on line, in a limited area, and then we begin to get power back to such things as the oil patch and the refineries near them, such as we have in the 4-Corners region, so that we have the Gas, Diesel, and Lube (POL for you Vets) to keep the trains running, and keep the trucks running, delivering the coal, and keep the tractors plowing, growing the food, etc. If your Steamplant needs oil, you may be out of luck. I have a question. If we get some power back, but all, ALL, non-essential power is prohibited, no electric toothbrushes or portable resistance heaters (1/1/2000 is the dead of winter), etc. permitted, how much power do we have to supply to keep the basics of Western Civ going? NO TV! No Street Lights! No............! We can do well with a lot less, but how much less? It will sort of be like the blackouts of WWII. How much? 50%? More? Less? Or is it hopeless and I am dreaming? Allan

Allan

-- Anonymous, March 07, 1998

Allan, I agree with your post above and you seem to know what you are talking about. However, one other thing you may not have thought about. The railroads (as you mentioned in your post) are very important when it comes to coal delivery to keep the power plants operating. Even if the power plants are 100% compliant (unlikely scenario) without the railroads to bring the coal, they can not produce much power. There is not a single manual railroad switch left in the country. All the switches are computer controlled. Add to that the railroads will simply "lose" track of the cars they own on 1/1/00. This is all tracked by computer as well. My statements would not be so bold if I had heard of positive progress in the industry but I have not (I help manage y2k projects for Fortune 100 companies so I try to keep on top of this). So now you have railroads that do not know where their cars are, who cannot control their switches. You tell me if you think an engineer is going to take off down a track under those conditions? The one thing that I find so frustrating about y2k is this domino effect in everything we look at. I just do not see much coal being delivered to keep those plants operating. Add to that the situation the nuclear plants find themselves in and I think we will see alot of plants go off line during the month of Jan. 2000 as soon as the reserve supplies of coal and fuel oil start to dry up.

-- Anonymous, April 15, 1998