ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook January 23, 1998 Volume 3, No. 3 Published by the Information Technology Association of America, Arlington, VA Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org

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"If no one did anything, some plants would shut down due to support system degradation," Davis says. But he objects to what he calls "myths, confusion and misstatements" about the true state of Y2K affairs within his industry, saying that it is difficult to "sort stories from facts." Davis says that until the enterprise performs its inventory and assessment, the magnitude of the situation remains unknown. "But those that have done it say [the conversion] is a manageable problem," Davis says.

The difficulty with the Year 2000, Davis allows, is getting one's arms around the total problem.

Those arms may need to be very long. Rick Cowles, Y2K Program Manager for the Utilities Sector at Digital Equipment Corporation, says plant shut downs can be triggered by far more than an overheated reactor. And many of these shutdown scenarios do involve dates.

Federal regulations, for instance, require power plants to maintain a fully operational event logging system. Such systems are the voice/data recorder equivalent of the nuclear power industry, allowing inspectors to reconstruct any mishap in plant operation. Cowles says trying to come up with a work around for these computer-dependent systems will be difficult. Should a major event occur, "there's a lot happening all at once," Cowles says, adding, "You don't have enough people or time. The computer is logging data down to the millisecond. Understanding an event means understanding its timeframe and sequence." If a system cannot be put in place to perform this function, federal regulations require plant shut down, Cowles says.

As the Year 2000 casts new light on the digital interdependency of organizations, the nuclear power industry is no exception. Cowles points out that while utilities tend to be highly self-sufficient, federal regulations prohibit nuclear plants from operating during disruptions to local emergency response systems, such as 911 or fire and rescue service. Like much else in the mechanics of Y2K, as goes the phone company, so goes the power station. Cowles says that Mississippi River flooding in 1994 forced the shutdown of the Cooper Nuclear Station in Brownville, NE, not because of water in the plant but because emergency response teams were unavailable.

Embedded systems may also dampen the prospects for a smooth conversion. On a web site Cowles maintains on the topic of electric utilities and the Year 2000, http://www.euy2k.com, he calls embedded logic control "the dirty little Y2K secret of all production facilitiesthat has the most significant potential to bring whole companies to their knees." Cowles recounts an example in which a test date mismatch between control console and programmable logic controller caused a boiler to trip. Under actual operating conditions, he notes, the mistake would have forced the plant to shut down.

For NEI's Jim Davis, such scenarios may be a bit too dire. He estimates that a plant may have between 1000 and 2000 total applications and between 200 and 500 hardware devices with embedded systems. Davis says that by prioritizing, much on this mound of digital detail falls away without a significant impact on the plant. "If it's [a date] in a fax machine, who cares?" he asks. Many systems may be due for replacement and old versions of code have been superseded by newer versions. Such options "pop to the surfaceand the list quickly goes down." Instead of worrying about the situation globally, Davis says that companies just need to get on with it. He calls Y2K a manageable project, not overwhelming.

Davis suggests that simple economics will force nuclear power companies to get on with their Y2K conversions. But Rick Cowles, who in addition to his work at Digital consults with another energy industry group, isn't so sure. In a recent conversation, Cowles said he spoke with representatives from nuclear power companies who were not aware of the NEI/NUSMG guidance document. Of the 110 nuclear plants across the country, between 10 and 15 participated in development of the NEI/NUSMG approach, he said. "Others have not got the message," according to Cowles. "The NRC must drive the issue," he says, adding, "with no hammer, they won't take it seriously. A majority of nuclear plants are so involved in cutting cost and responding to deregulation that they are not focusing their efforts on Y2K. Deregulation is driving everything."

-- Anonymous, January 25, 1998