EU EXPANSION - Irish referendum rejects proposals, inc EuroArmy

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ET - EU turmoil over Irish rejection of Nice Treaty

By Julian Coman, European Correspondent

EUROPEAN Union leaders were facing an escalating political crisis yesterday after Ireland's surprise rejection of the Nice Treaty. Anti-federalist groups in the rest of Europe are now demanding a similar right of veto to the Irish.

Romano Prodi, the president of the European Commission, expressed "profound disappointment" at the Irish referendum result.

So far only Ireland has held a referendum on the Nice proposals, designed to pave the way for EU expansion into eastern Europe, extend majority voting in a number of policy areas, give more voting power to larger Union countries and lay the groundwork for a European army.

In France, the leader of the centrist UDF party, François Bayrou, who is likely to stand for the presidency next year, said: "I hope the Irish vote means that this treaty is dead even before it had the chance to live. President [Jacques] Chirac should now have the courage and the political honesty to call a referendum in France."

Brussels fears that the Irish vote is already triggering a domino effect of protest elsewhere in Europe, calling into question the democratic legitimacy of EU policy-making and thereby indefinitely delaying enlargement.

The Spanish government, according to one commission official, may now also face internal pressure to challenge the Union's enlargement plans. As in Ireland, many Spanish people fear that EU expansion will lead to the transfer of regional aid and subsidies from the poorer regions of western Europe to the east.

"It's too early to say what the consequences of the Irish vote will be," said the diplomat. "But if it means that the treaty is up for negotiation again, the Spanish are bound to want to have an influence."

The Nice Treaty attracted strong criticism from the moment it was signed by European leaders in December. The European Commission argues that substantial voting reform is necessary if an enlarged EU is to function.

Opponents believe that the agreed changes hand too much power to larger European states, particularly Germany. The treaty also lays the groundwork for a more federal Europe, by taking away national rights of veto.

The final document was agreed after one of the most acrimonious summits of recent times. To be put into effect, however, it needs to be ratified by each EU member state. Mr Ahern's decision to put the matter to a referendum has created a colossal headache for EU policy-makers.

In a desperate attempt to keep enlargement on track, the commission has initially downplayed the importance of the Irish vote. Gunther Verheugen, the commissioner responsible for enlargement, said the "outcome of one referendum in one country cannot block the EU's most important project".

In private, Brussels officials have ridiculed the idea that a vote by 529,578 people against the treaty (453,461 voted in favour) could derail a project involving 490 million people. Behind the scenes, however, The Telegraph understands that the commission has obtained vital assurances from the Irish Prime Minister, Bertie Ahern.

Effectively ignoring Friday's vote, Mr Ahern plans to institute a second referendum. By that time he hopes that Brussels will have offered concessions to assuage Irish doubts about loss of subsidies.

The Irish may also be offered the chance to opt out of any future European army, thus preserving their historical neutrality. The question of neutrality was one of the main concerns for Irish "no" voters on Friday.

A similar "carrot" strategy was used by the commission in 1992, when Denmark rejected the Maastricht Treaty. The Danes eventually obtained an opt-out from European Monetary Union. Given the unpopularity of the Nice Treaty among smaller nations and anti- federalists, it would be a high-risk strategy to offer opt-outs to the Irish.

The Dutch Prime Minister, Wim Kok, yesterday admitted that the Irish vote was a "serious complication" and would "certainly delay the process of enlargement". That delay could be used by other EU member states to reopen the negotiating process that ended so messily in Nice.

The Irish vote is the latest in a series of embarrassing referendum results for supporters of further European integration. The Danes followed up their vote on Maastricht by rejecting the European single currency last year, while the French voted by the narrowest of margins to adopt the Maastricht Treaty in 1992.

-- Anonymous, June 10, 2001


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