The Standoff Continues

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Tuesday April 10 06:33 AM EDT

U.S. Shies Away From Threats in Plane Standoff With China

By DAVID E. SANGER The New York Times

President Bush's advisers have concluded that the most severe acts of retaliation they could threaten would not bring a swift end to the spy plane standoff with China.

WASHINGTON, April 9 President Bush's senior advisers have concluded for now that the most severe acts of retaliation they could threaten in the spy-plane standoff with China selling advanced arms to Taiwan, restricting trade, derailing Beijing's bid for the Olympics would not speed the release of the 24 American crew members and could harm longer-term interests in Asia, administration officials said.

One official involved in the first review of those options said today that "it became clear how little room for maneuver either side has" in a relationship that is "this interdependent and complex."

The official acknowledged that the administration is under growing pressure from conservatives in Congress to threaten stronger action, but has also been warned by business executives to assess any boomerang effects on the American economy before threatening trade sanctions.

The absence of palatable options explains why Mr. Bush has issued only the blandest warnings to the Chinese about the diplomatic and economic risks they run in continuing to hold the Americans.

The president issued two general warnings early last week, followed by far more conciliatory expressions of regret for the loss of their fighter pilot in the collision over the South China Sea. The American plane landed on Hainan island after the collision, which occurred on April 1.

Today, Mr. Bush issued only the briefest of comments, saying each day the crew is held would "increase the potential that our relations with China could be damaged."

But his spokesman, Ari Fleischer, was pressed on how relations might be damaged. He retreated into ambiguity, and noted that two weeks ago, before the collision, Mr. Bush met in the Oval Office with Deputy Prime Minister Qian Qichen and talked about ways the countries could work together. "Much of the good they talked about can go wrong, or will go wrong," if the standoff continues, Mr. Fleischer said.

But American officials acknowledge that neither side has much room to inflict harm on the other, unless they are willing to make major diplomatic and economic sacrifices.

"The reality is that the Chinese hold the short-term tactical cards, because they have the crew, and we hold the long-term strategic cards," said one senior diplomat. "And both sides are using those to circle the other" as the talks drag on.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell put in play the mildest of sanctions on Sunday, when he seemed to suggest that Mr. Bush might cancel a state visit to Beijing after he attends the annual summit meeting of Asian- Pacific leaders in October, which was scheduled long ago for Shanghai.

"The whole environment is at some risk right now," he said.

And this afternoon, Senator Robert G. Torricelli, Democrat of New Jersey and a long-time supporter of selling arms to Taiwan, said, "Soon it will become questionable whether it is appropriate to have both an ambassador and hostages in the same country."

Mr. Torricelli and other members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee had held their tongues until now, after General Powell asked them last week to let the administration continue to seek diplomatic solutions.

But General Powell conceded then that if the crew remained in China a second week, it would be more difficult to keep members of Congress from publicly pressing for harsher steps.

Two White House officials tonight dismissed the idea of recalling the ambassador to China, Adm. Joseph W. Prueher, for consultations. One noted that because he is a former commander of military forces in the Pacific, "he's the only one we have whom the Chinese military really respects."

Administration officials involved in the internal conversations about the standoff say, for example, that the United States probably does not have the clout with the International Olympics Committee to derail China's bid for the 2008 Games even if the Bush administration determined that was a wise course. There has been no public discussion of a possible American boycott of the Games if they are indeed held in Beijing.

Similarly, any threat to delay China's entry into the World Trade Organization, while perhaps satisfying to critics who argue Congress should never have agreed to China's admission, could work to China's short- term advantage.

Ever since Congress acted to grant China permanent normal trade relations which takes effect only after China is admitted to the trade body Beijing itself has dragged out talks with the W.T.O. about the specifics of its admission. China must still reconcile differences in individual agreements it has made with members of the organization, a time-consuming process.

Each year that its admission is delayed is another year that China can delay opening its markets to foreign competition, giving its state- run companies more time to adjust.

Experts on Chinese trade, including Nicholas Lardy of the Brookings Institution, have noted that a delay in opening China's market might be welcomed by many Chinese officials. "They might not be heartbroken," Mr. Lardy said.

One American diplomat drawn into the debate about possible sanctions because of his long exerience in dealing with China concluded, "We'd be hurting American carmakers and banks and workers as much as we'd be hurting the Chinese."

And the option many in Congress are clamoring for selling Taiwan advanced arms and destroyers equipped with the Aegis radar system also has its drawbacks.

"Look, if we have a bad relationship with China, does it make sense to sell more weapons to Taiwan?" asked one senior Bush administration official. "That would be ridiculous almost as ridiculous as the converse, that if we have good relations with China, we should starve the Taiwanese of what they need."

In fact, officials say, before the collision, the administration was leaning toward selling Taiwan Kidd- class destroyers, which have less capable weapon systems than the Aegis, and deferring any decision on the Aegis system, which the Chinese say they would attempt to overwhelm with more weaponry of their own.

Under that plan, the destroyers and the Aegis systems would be ordered for the United States Navy with the understanding that they could be transferred to Taiwan. But even if that was Mr. Bush's intent last month, if he pursues that track he could be accused by pro-Taiwan lawmakers of watering down the sale in order to appease the Chinese and get the crew members back.

"Beijing has made it impossible for the Bush administration, no matter what it decides," Senator Torricelli said in an interview today. "They cannot appear to have compromised on their previous intentions. In fact, every day that passes in this will make it harder not to do the sale of the Aegis destroyers. The only one who has benefited is the Taiwan military."

In the State Department, however, officials are worried that administration action could box in China's president, Jiang Zemin. "What happens to Jiang, and our hopes for avoiding a hard-line successor, if he lets the crew go and then we turn around and sell more gear to Taiwan?" one senior administration official said.

While the official debate continued, American officials exacted Washington's strongest form of social revenge this evening. The Chinese embassy had long ago invited Secretary Powell, diplomats and members of Congress to a party welcoming Yang Jiechi as the new Chinese ambassador to Washington. Mr. Powell did not attend, and neither did any other senior administration officials.

"We're all very, very busy," one senior diplomat said tonight.



-- (scr@tching.my head), April 10, 2001


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