Meteorologists Say 2000 Weather Was Warm and Extreme

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Unusual Year

Meteorologists Say 2000 Weather Was Warm and Extreme

By Amanda Onion

Dec. 18 - Scientists have confirmed what many probably already suspected: It was a year of strange and unruly weather.

First, there was the balmy month of January -- the warmest ever recorded in the United States. Spring followed with more tepid temperatures, registering as the second warmest on record. Then Mother Nature intervened: severe droughts in the South, heat waves simmering across the South and western United States and a rash of wildfires in the West -- the worst spate of wildfires in 50 years. Meanwhile Northeasterners endured a cool, soggy summer.

Now much of the country is hunkering down against snow and bitter cold.

What's going on here?

Extremes, says Jay Lawrimore of the National Climactic Data Center, is the pattern -- if you could call it a pattern at all.

“There has always been variability,” says Lawrimore, who authored a new analysis of the past year's weather. “But this is more evidence that there's been an increase in extremes in the last 100 years.”

Signaling a Trend?

Studies have suggested that warming is caused when air pollution from industry and cars and other sources cause the atmosphere to trap heat near Earth. While it's difficult to sense a rise in temperature over a short period of time, scientists say that extreme weather events could be a slightly more obvious signal of global warming.

“Subtle changes in average temperatures are difficult to detect,” explains Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “But if you shift the climate, the rarity of extreme weather events changes. And the frequency [at which] things occur increases.”

Despite the chill and storms now gripping the west and Midwest, 2000 will also go on record as warmer than normal. Depending on how cold it remains for the rest of the year, the average U.S. temperature is projected to be between 54.1 and 54.2 degrees Fahrenheit. That's much higher than the long-term 206-year average of 52.8 degrees and it would make 2000 the seventh to 12th warmest year on record.

“This contributes to a continuing trend that we've observed toward warmer temperatures in the United States and worldwide,” says Lawrimore.

Trenberth also points out that nations around the world have experienced warmer-than-average temperatures over the past several years. And, unlike in the United States, Europeans appear to be having an unusually mild winter this December.

Warming Over Many Years

More than 100 years of data at the National Climactic Data Center indicate that average U.S. temperatures have risen almost 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century. Data from the past 25 years reveal a more sudden change, suggesting that temperatures are now rising at a rate of more than 3 degrees every 100 years.

“It's in line with what many computer simulations are projecting,” says Lawrimore. “In fact, some simulations suggest things could actually get worse and warming could become even more severe.”

Meteorologists first started collecting annual weather surveys in 1895. More than 100 years ago, much of the data was gathered by interested citizens who simply wanted to contribute to research. Since 1979, the Climactic Data Center then began amassing the data into yearly totals.

The National Climactic Data Center still relies heavily on regular citizens to gather weather data. Lawrimore says a network of up to 10,000 people across the country send in their recordings of daily temperatures and weather. The center combines this data with reports from airports and national weather service sites to come up with yearly averages and weather highlights.

Weird Weather Highlights

Some of the more memorable weather from this year include:

* States in the Deep South (Florida, Georgia., Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana) experienced the driest May-October ever.

* Lands in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arizona, Louisiana, and Mississippi were parched under the driest July- Sept. ever on record. By November, torrential rainfall flooded the region during the wettest November ever in the region.

* Widespread drought led to one of the worst wildfire season in 50 years, consuming more than 7 million acres of forests and grasslands, mostly in Western states.

* In Pennsylvania and West Virginia, July registered as the coolest on record. In New York, the month was the second coolest in 100 years.

* The U.S. Atlantic hurricane season was above average for the third straight year in a row with 16 strong to violent tornadoes occurring between March and August.



-- (in@the.news), December 18, 2000

Answers

“It's in line with what many computer simulations are projecting,” says Lawrimore.

Are these the same computer simulations that can't accurately predict my local weather two days in advance?

-- Doubtful (maybe@maybe.not), December 18, 2000.


Hmmmm...I read elsewhere that although the US temp. in 2000 was higher than average, it was actually lower than 1999 and 1998.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), December 19, 2000.

Goldangit, everbuddy talks bout the weather but nobuddy duz nuttin bout it. We needs a federal progrum.

-- (bud@dumptruck.AR), December 19, 2000.

Hmmmm...I read elsewhere that although the US temp. in 2000 was higher than average, it was actually lower than 1999 and 1998.

The statistics in the message before yours are clear about temperatures in 2000 not setting a new record, Buddy.

The global temperature was expected to be 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit above average recorded since 1880, similar to temperatures recorded in 1999. The only years warmer were 1998, 1997, 1995, and 1990.

The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1983, NOAA said.

-- (quot@bly.quoted), December 19, 2000.


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