I've been out of "range" for a week and have been blissfully enjoying a vacation from news (politics, particularly). However, on returning and checking the other forums that I read, the talk is all abuzz about oil prices and the protests and disruption going on in European countries re:high fuel costs...also that Clinton is talking about (and probably just that: talking) using the Strategic Oil Reserve to mitigate high fuel costs. Kind of big news, I would think. Oil still runs our economy!

I was just in N. California, where gas prices are over $2/gallon (here, still below). What's going on with fuel prices for you all out there? Does the idea of fuel shortages/high cost impact you, or are you all prepared for a cold winter with alternatives? Do you think we are looking another bout of inflation in the face? Other thoughts?

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), September 20, 2000

Answers

The high prices are not totally related to the price of crude oil, but also reflect state and federal taxes. Somewhere a source of revenue needs to be found to build and maintain roads. If these taxes are dropped, they are going to have to be found somewhere else.

I believe the European protests are over the taxes, which they think should be waived. Compared to most of the rest of the world, U.S. fuel prices are relatively cheap. (Have you ever noticed protesters in foreign countries have their signs in English?)

Personally it won't have a great impact on me. Higher farm-related fuel costs just mean more I can write more off against other income.

-- Ken S. in WC TN (scharabo@aol.com), September 20, 2000.

We are still in our drafty old farmhouse, and only have enough wood for part of the winter, so it will affect us, especially if it is a cold winter. We are due for one, as the last few have been fairly mild. I had so hoped to NOT have to spend another winter in this house, sigh. We do heat with oil, but really, if the house was better insulated and tighter, it wouldn't be such a problem. My dream house is an earth-bermed log cabin with a good thick sod roof -- it would be really easy to heat!

-- Kathleen Sanderson (stonycft@worldpath.net), September 20, 2000.

Sheepish, If they don't lift the bans on off shore drilling on the left coast and Alaska we're going to see some really high prices in the next few years. Yeah,inflation is due for a massive adjustment- Greenspan at the fed has been holding the rates down artificialy for years now and don't forget that in clinton's first term,that he and sectreas lloyd Benson financed a lot of debt with short term bonds that Japan bought for the most part-those are coming due. But,we'll get to blame it on the next administration

-- BillyB (bloptoad123@cs.com), September 20, 2000.

Well we are finally biting the bullet and putting in an oil furnace , lucky me .If these prices don't go down we won't be able to fill the tank !We've heated the last couple of years with wood and coal , but the stove just can't keep up sometimes .We are closing in air gaps , and putting celotex and siding on the outside as we can afford to .Gas is $1.69 a gallon and am not sure what oil is I think $1.35

-- Patty Gamble (fodfarms@slic.com), September 20, 2000.

The high price of gas has already had an impact on my lifestyle. NO trips to town that cannot be combined. My daughter will wait on her birthday present until I'm already in town, and my friend had to wait for the eggs she needed. I'm afraid that soon my son will have to give up driving to school (he pays for his own gas) unless he also works that day. This will mean riding the bus at 6:30 in the morning. I do not even drive the 3 miles to the local store without alot of thought. Local store prices are rising because of the price the truckers are paying for their gas and the local trash service is charging a gas surcharge now. I hope that natural gas prices do not rise. I see no reason for them to and I do have wood left from last year. I'm mostly worried about gas and food prices.

-- Cheryl Cox (bramblecottage@hotmail.com), September 20, 2000.

I hit the submit button too soon. I cannot get used to my son's keyboard. It's smaller than mine. Yes, I've very worried about inflation. I remember the problems in the 1970's too well. I'm worried that I do not have enough food etc stored. We've been living off our storage while I try to get my private studio up and running. My business is the type that is effected my inflation. If I raise my rates too much, I may lose students and if I don't, I can't pay my bills. A real Catch-22. Yeah, I'm worried.

-- Cheryl Cox (bramblecottage@hotmail.com), September 20, 2000.

Just a few comments.

The price of refined oil products are to a large part determined by the easy (or lack there of) of providing said product to the market. It is my understanding that due to deregulation and general profit-taking during the late 70s and on into the 80s, the oil producing companines stopped building/expanding their refinery capacity. There is plenty of oil but without the ability to convert it into useable product, it *isn't* there.

Sort of like dying of thrist while floating in a life raft in the middle of the ocean. There's plenty of -water- just not in the form that's usable to the human body.

The refinery capacity is the weakest link not the ability to pump oil out of the ground and ship it from one country to another.

j

-- j (jw_hsv@yahoo.com), September 20, 2000.

Propane here is up to 1.25 per gallon, and rising. Auto gas is 1.57, deisel yesterday was 1.69. When we travel through Wyoming to Utah every month or so, we always fill up on either edge of Wyoming, as the gas is about 10cents or so a gallon less than here in Colorado. Odd thing is, near the refineries in central Wyoming, gas is about the same as here, and they don't have to truck it as far. Can't figure that out! We are stocking up on firewood, and will use the propane sparingly. We already try to combine trips to town and don't go unless we really need too--hate that traffic, anyway! The fuel crunch of the '70s wasn't fun, and I hope we don't have it again, but I'm afraid we will. We are retired, so can stay home and just do whatever needs to be done here, for the most part, and our income isn't effected. I feel for those that have their own businesses, and will be impacted if we have any further problems. Jan

-- Jan in Colorado (Janice12@aol.com), September 20, 2000.

Gas here seems to have stabalized at about 1.45-1.49/gallon for cheapo. I fill up at a station halfway to work, as the have it down to 1.41 (1.51, actually, as my car pings mercilessly on reg and tears up the engine, which costs more to fix, plus without the pinging, I get better mileage, so it evens out). No telling what the propane will cost this year. If I don't get this last tank paid off, I may not be allowed to find out! Another cost determinant (in a shorter term) are the hurricanes and other storms that force riggers on-shore weeks ahead of schedule and keep them ther (like with Gordon). I hear it happens a lot, and a lot more lately, since the last few years have been bad for coastal areas, weather wise.

-- Soni (thomkilroy@hotmail.com), September 20, 2000.

Firewood dealers here in Maine are right out straight with orders. Some have stopped answering their phones, not taking any more orders for the year. Firewood prices creeping up. Natural gas nationally is up 50 percnet on the year, will rise more this winter according to media reports. Fuel oil will likely break the $2 gallon mark this winter. It already runs 1.29-1.49 around here, and prices are up at least 10 cents in the past two months. Local charities and town public assistance offices are prepping for a major increase in requests for help. This whole thing could turn around sharply in another 12 months (especially if a recession hits), but this winter does not look promising to anyone who depends on oil/gas heat.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), September 20, 2000.

Ive just been Praying for the gas prices to go down...husband is a trucker, and its really hurt us this year. The farm doesnt really have much of an income, as the price of corn and soybeans have dropped again this year. We will probaly make a little more than half of what he made last year. Been REALLY frugal! Im just wondering...if the gas prices dont go down, is EVERYTHING else gonna go up? Groceries and a few other things? I HAVE noticed some things are higher lately. Theres talk on another forum of truckers getting together and forming strikes as in Europe right now. If this should really happen, it would sure cause alot of problems! I think alot of us Homesteader who dont rely on the store as much as others would be okay. Alot of us stock up...but even so, I am always running LOW on something! This year i grew a ton of potaoes...well, not a ton, about 150 lbs., froze tons of veggies, and berries, and Im waiting for husband to get some venison. Also gonna stock up on those baking supplies again, and my Y2K supply of toilet paper is finally almost gone, so I need to replenish some of that stuff. Well be Okay for the winter, and lean times ahead...esp. if the heating gas goes up, too! Carrie in Wis

-- Carrie Wehler (carriew@ticon.net), September 21, 2000.

Truly scary.

Running on Empty

-- Joy Froelich (dragnfly@chorus.net), September 21, 2000.

It could be a tough winter but we were all ready for worse with Y2K. Gas here is $1.87, LP is $1.89, the last time we filled up, it could be higher, fuel oil is/was $1.29 and I just saw road diesel at the pump for $1.99. My off road diesel cost me $.99 last winter. Oregon has a pretty good tax on fuel but we will still buy it. On theother hand, we have been doing well with oil stocks, so we spend the revenues on the higher prices.

-- Hendo (OR) (redgate@echoweb.net), September 21, 2000.

Higher fuel prices have already affected our budjet in a positive way.We have scaled back our driving and just cutting out one or two side trips one week, leaves us with enough for movies the next. My gas budjet now is actually 50% less than when it was 99 cents a gal. It amazes me at how we got used to all that driving.

-- Jay Blair (jayblair678@yahoo.com), September 21, 2000.

More drilling in Alaska wouldn't help us out in the current situation, since North Slope crude goes to Japan. No opinion on West Coast crude. Oil is an international commodity. The last two years, energy "Cassandras" were telling the American public that low oil prices were bad for domestic producers. Well, the OPEC folks wanted it low, to discourage domestic production, and shut down marginal wells. I know, I had some wells I own royalty in shut down, casing pulled, and cemented. Now the price is up, but those wells are gone.

In short, America can produce more oil, but it won't make any difference in the world price. IF all of Alaska and West Coast oil were to be magically tapped, it wouldn't make a dent in world production.

We're paying the price for the cheap crude of the last several years. And payback is always a ######, especially when we let foreigners set out national policy...btw, of which, we have none.

-- phil briggs (phillipbriggs@thenett.com), September 21, 2000.

Driving my daughter's Honda to and from kid's school, practice, outings etc. only driving my Dodge pickup to the feed store, now every two weeks. Husband drives Dodge onetons with the business and we had to up our service charge call, and start inforcing it more with alot less free estimates, he also picks up anything in the larger town of Cleveland, encluding the grocery and banking. So really this had made husbands life a little more hectic, and mine easier. Especially since daughters car is air-conditioned!

We have a 500 gallon propane tank still filled from Y2K with a very mild winter last year, we only use propane for cooking during non winter months, and then only use a very small propane heater to take the chill off in the am, or when coming in after not being home during the day. We have plenty of wood also already spit, though we have a couple of really nice trees ready for spitting this year, afraid we have lost some trees to this drought.

Our fuel crisis came with hay hauling this year, the price for hay delivered and stacked was outrageous, so I am just filling the truck each time I go to the feed store "Load my feed and I will take as many bales as you can put on" this has actually been alot easier than I thought, and I will probably continue this practice.

Vicki

-- Vicki McGaugh (vickilonesomedoe@hotmail.com), September 21, 2000.

Alfalfa/grass hay delivered here is (are you sitting down?) $186/ton. Yeah, fuel costs. Sheesh. Okay, the sheep have to get their own paper routes!! SOOOO glad we got a new insert for our fireplace a couple of years ago. Thank you, Y2k! Just a couple of years late!

Seriously, though, I am starting to get a little concerned about the not-too-distant horizon. If this weren't an election year, I would probably be moving a lot faster toward covering my more than ample you-know-what with alternatives and options. I'm pondering....

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), September 23, 2000.

Supply & demand are what it is all about or at least should be. I had heard on the news that OPEC would like to keep the oil in the high twenties/barrel. Yeah, right! They would prefer to get twenty-some dollars/barrel rather than $35.00?!?!? At least I have some oil & gas stocks that have done ok lately, so when I fill up it's not so bad. I am sure we have just seen the beginning though, so start getting out your layers of clothes, or hope for a warm winter!

-- Michael W. Wmith (kirklbb@penn.com), September 24, 2000.

I am astounded that we are going to release oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve. Just astounded....

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), September 24, 2000.

Me too! Wendy

-- Wendy@GraceAcres (wjl7@hotmail.com), September 24, 2000.

Here in southeastern RURAL Ohio, gas at the small local station is $1.62 a gallon, propane is for the first time in 20 years cheaper than fuel oil, propane at $1.39, oil at $1.44! We heat mainly with a fuel oil f/a furnace, backup heat is two propane gas log heaters, but right now we are using two cheap $14.00 electric heaters from Wally World as electric is around 7 cents a KW, to avoid as long as possible firing up the furnace! We have a 500 hundred gallon fuel oil tank which normally lasts until Feb. before we have to fill it. Our fuel oil people recommended that their customers be able to have enough capacity (tank space) to last from season to season because in 20 years of purchasing oil I've noticed that prices ALWAYS come back down in June and July to about $1.00 a gallon or less. Price gouging always occurs in the dead of winter. You just have to watch the prices and act accordingly. Annie in SE OH.

-- Annie M. Miller (annie@1st.netA), September 25, 2000.