The following is a summary of a slide presentation that I gave at a panel program on Y2K on April 12, 2000. The topic of the program was "Y2K: What Happened and What Has Been Happening Since January 1?" A video of all of the panel presentations can be seen at http://www.stuarthrodman.com/video.htm Additional information concerning the panel and other presentations and programs can be found at http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon. I hope it may prove helpful to those trying to sort out some of the "unsolved mysteries" of the Y2K story.

Summary of Slide Presentation by Paula Gordon Given at an April 12, 2000 Panel Program at GW University Entitled "Y2K: What Happened and What Has Been Happening Since January 1?"

Topic Outline:

I. Some Problems in Obtaining Information Concerning Y2K-Related Problems

II. Some Mainstream Sources (or Potential Sources) of Information

III. A Basis for Making a Case That Y2K Problems Have Occurred and Are Continuing to Occur

IV. Reasons for the Use of Anonymous or Unnamed Sources

V. Why We Are Likely to Know More Soon

VI. The Need to Understand That Embedded Systems Failures and Malfunctions Can Occur or Become Evident at Different Times

VII. Some Sources of Information of Potential Interest

I. Some Problems in Obtaining Information Concerning Y2K-Related Problems

1) There is information that has not yet been made available.

2) Some of the information that is available is lacking in details and/or is impossible or difficult to trace or verify.

3) Some information was made available only briefly owing to proprietary concerns or for other reasons such as lack of funding.

4) Some information is accessible but may be very difficult to find.

5) Some information is in a form that makes it difficult to use. 6) Some information may require special direct requests.

II. Some Mainstream.Sources (or Potential Sources) of Information

~ The Information Coordination Center (ICC)

~ The International Y2K Coordination Center (IY2KCC)

~ Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)

~ Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

~ Chemical Safety Board

~ State of California

III. A Basis for Making a Case That Y2K Problems Have Occurred and Are Continuing to Occur

What basis might there be for concluding that problems that are occurring are Y2K-related?

If problems in question meet the following criteria, there is a basis for at least tentatively concluding that the problems could be Y2K- or embedded systems-related:

1) High Number of Problems:

An usually high number of problems in a specific sector having no readily identifiable causes and/or having causes that could be Y2K- or embedded systems related

2) Number of Problems in a Specific Sector is Higher Than Prior Years:

The number of problems occurring in 2000 exceeds the number of problems that occurred during comparable periods of time in prior years

3) Patterns or Similarities in Current Problems:

The problems occurring during 2000 have patterns in common and have similarities not found in problems that occurred in prior years. In addition, the problems that have been occurring are typically associated with Y2K- or embedded systems-related problems.

4) The Problems That Are Occurring Were of a Kind that Were Predicted or Expected:

The problems occurring in 2000 were anticipated or predicted or regarded as being possible or likely consequences of Y2K- or embedded systems-related failures or malfunctions.

If all of these criteria are met, then there is a likelihood that the problems are Y2K- or embedded systems-related. Such problems can at least be regarded as falling under the heading of Predicted Coincidences.

In Other Words:

When it can be established that there has been a higher than usual number of problems in a specific sector, including problems that either have no readily identifiable cause or problems that could conceivably have a Y2K- or embedded systems-related cause;

when, in addition, a comparison of current problems with problems that occurred during the same time frame in previous years reveals patterns or similarities that are not apparent in problems that have occurred in prior years;

when such patterns or similarities either indicate or do not exclude the possibility of Y2K- or embedded systems-related causes; and

when the kinds of problems that are occurring now are the same kinds of problems that were expected to result from Y2K- or embedded systems related failures or malfunctions;

then there is a likelihood that the problems are Y2K- or embedded systems-related.

Such problems can at least be characterized as Predicted Coincidences.

IV. Reasons for the Use of Anonymous or Unnamed Sources

There are many people who are in a position to provide needed information or expertise concerning Y2K and embedded systems who feel little, if any inclination to do so. In their minds, the disincentives to being forthcoming concerning problems or issues relating to Y2K- and embedded systems- related problems may far outweigh any possible incentives. The following is a list of some major reasons that individuals may refrain from speaking out or may request anonymity when they do:

~ Fear of losing a job, jeopardizing a contract, or otherwise adversely affecting ones career or business

~ Liability concerns or fear of litigation

~ Fear of other possible consequences or reprisals

~ Existence of Non-Disclosure Agreements preventing the sharing of proprietary information

~ Organizational or peer pressure

~ Political pressure

~ A desire to avoid controversy

~ The existence of a climate that can prove hostile to people who are candid about sensitive or controversial Y2K- and embedded systems-related concerns

For some of these and other reasons, it has been necessary for me to promise anonymity to a number of sources who have provided me information.

V. Why We Are Likely to Know More Soon

~ Quarterly Reports

~ End of Fiscal Year Reports

~ Market Analyses

~ SEC Filings

~ Insurance Claims

~ Quarterly and Annual Reports of Insurance Companies and Reinsurers

~ Law Suits, including any of the following:

- Directors and Officers, vendors, manufacturers, contractors, insurance companies, or other businesses

- Whistleblowing Cases

- Dismissed Employees Suing Employers

VI. The Need to Understand That Embedded Systems Failures and Malfunctions Can Occur at Different Times

Some examples include :

~ Buffer Overflow-Related Problems

~ Function Overflow-Related Problems

~ Problems Triggered by Annual Maintenance Scheduling

~ Epoch Date-Related Problems

For some background on the first three, see the appendices focusing on embedded systems concerns in John Koskinens Responses to Questions from Paula Gordon: March 22, 2000 at http://www.gwu.edu/~keypeople/gordon/Q&A.html.

VII. Some Sources of Information of Potential Interest

~ Final Senate Report

~ March 29, 2000 Final Report of the Presidents Council

~ January 17 Comments and Impact Ratings by Paula Gordon (http://www.gwu.edu/~keypeople/gordon)

~ John Koskinens Responses to Questions from Paula Gordon: March 22, 2000 (http://www.gwu.edu/~keypeople/gordon/Q&A.html)

~ Proceedings of the January 24 - 25, 2000 Y2K Assessment Conference Sponsored by the Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

~ Grassroots Information Coordination Center

~ Glitch Central

For URLs not indicated, see

~ the reference list in http://www.gwu.edu/~keypeople/gordon/Q&A.html and

~ the references in the January 17 Comments and Rating piece at http://www.gwu.edu/~y2k/keypeople/gordon.

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), June 07, 2000

Answers

Paula, lest you think your words fall on on all deaf ears, I hear you. Maybe others too, who do not come forward. Your mission is not lost, nor is it futile. You speak the Truth, and I personally commend you, for having the "Guts" to say :"I Won't Lie Down, and I Won't Go Easy". Good Show! Shall anyone look around at again rising gas prices, see the line up at the Labor Pool, and sing "All Is Well". Well for most, it does not seem to be the "Good Ship Lolipop". You have to have eyes opened, before you can see.

-- Eyes Opened (labor@pool.nearestyou.com), June 07, 2000.

Dear Eyes Opened,

Thanks for your note.

There is a related thread that you might find of interest at http://pub5.ezboard.com/fyourdontimebomb2000.showMessage?topicID=5387. topic

One of the last postings to that thread has a great quote from Winston Churchill about truth. I think you might like the quote alot.

Thanks again for writing.

Regards,

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), June 08, 2000.

Paula, that post is no longer there - do you happen to have Churchill's quote - I'd love to see it

Thanks Jan

-- Jan Nickerson (JaNickrson@aol.com), June 08, 2000.

In case others have trouble finding it: The quote is still posted at http://pub5.ezboard.com/fyourdontimebomb2000.showMessage?topicID=5387. topic.

It was posted by "snooze button". Here is just a bit of what snooze button wrote:

...The real truth stands on its own.

To quote Winston Churchill: Truth will ultimately prevail...its just stubborn. He said, "Truth is incontrovertible, ignorance can deride it, panic may resent it, malice may destroy it, but there it is."

-- Paula Gordon (pgordon@erols.com), June 08, 2000.