Can you tell which is which?

Not sure what this means, but if it is this predictable, isn't there some way that a talented investor should be able to put this knowledge to good use?

-- Hawk (flyin@hi.again), May 26, 2000

Answers

"We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don't know -- and those who don't know they don't know."

John Kenneth Galbraith

-- Chicken Little (panic@isover.now), May 26, 2000.

Hawk -

All you're seeing is the fact that Cisco has the highest market valuation and thus serious weight within the Nazz. It's common knowledge, and it will change as market valuations begin to, ummmm, adjust downward. Stay tuned.

Predictable? Please. Seasoned and successful pros have actually been getting out of the game, and neither bulls nor bears have been able to make much money lately. We are entering a period which has not been seen for at least 5 years (1994 was the last period of serious Fed tightening) and perhaps longer (the bear market of the late 80's and early 90's was even tougher.) No longer will buying stocks be automatically rewarding.

Gosh, we may actually get back to an true investment approach to buying equities, as opposed to the "Casino Wall Street" we've seen for the past few years. One can only hope..

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), May 26, 2000.

I think both of you misunderstood what I was saying. The only thing I was saying that could possibly be "forecasted" or "predictable" appears to be an extremely strong CORRELATION between these two graphs. Over the 3 year period shown, the direction and degree of change is remarkably identical, probably predictable within a confidence interval of +/- 3%. You won't find that ony any other stocks. I admit I don't know enough about stocks, but I was thinking that perhaps a real professional could probably design a computer program that could capitalize on this relationship.

-- Hawk (flyin@hi.again), May 26, 2000.