Considering that market seems to be still booming, what, if anything, do you think will be the main cause of the next stock market crash?

A. War.

B. Banks calling in loans (Hedge-fund or S&L type crisis).

C. Rising energy prices.

D. Boomers retiring.

E. Foreign currency/economic collapse.

F. Combination/Other.

G. Market will not crash severely, or not for 5-10 more years.

-- Scrubbing Bubbles (@ .), March 25, 2000

Answers

An overvalued stock market, AKA a 'euphoric speculative bubble.'

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002JOS

Link

"Alternatively, that 2010 retrospective might well conclude that a good deal of what we are currently experiencing was just one of the many euphoric speculative bubbles that have dotted human history."

Get out of debt and stay out of debt.

-- (Euphoric@speculative.bubble), March 25, 2000.

Overvalued stock market bubble popped by oil/gas prices.

-- robert bright (roosterbos@go.com), March 25, 2000.

When commodity markets collapse: gold at $150, oil at $8/bbl, silver at $2, etc. Probably in 2001.

The DJ will collapse: from a Mar 2001 high of 14,000 to 10,000 - back to Mar 2000 levels. It won't hit 14,000 again until Dec 2001 at the earliest.

-- (john@maynard.keynes), March 25, 2000.

Euro currency. -- This market spike will last until the Euro has been fully implemented and the present european currencies are null and void. Euro implementation dates 1/01/2001 - currencies null and void 5-6 month later.

-- Barb (ba3_4him1@yahoo.com), March 25, 2000.

SB:

War with the evil empire of the north. Quote:

It's a vile, cold, wooded wasteland populated with propaganda-spewing lumberjacks and their irritating ilk. Who needs it?

Blame Canada

Best wishes ;<),,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

For whatever reason, Salon has, evidently, decided not to allow linking to this article. The URL is http://www.salon.com/people/ feature/2000/03/23/blamecanada/index.html. Otherwise use their search with the word Canada; if you are interested. The quote is from the article; not my opinion [I am a Canadophile (?)]. If you are interested in the subject, it raises some questions.

Best wishes,,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

Mr.Bubbles,

H. Greed and Stupidity,.....cultural and individual, not in any particular order though, also add a splash of euphoria and remorse, and a pinch of shortsightedness which all makes for a very deadly combination!! New Paradigm....BBBBaaad!! Tangible Assets...GGGGGooooooood!!!

-- rob (marketgo@boom.com), March 25, 2000.

I'll take F, combination/other.

High gas prices will start to cause inflation and thus reduce consumption and corporate profits. That'll kill the DOW.

In addition, people will eventually realize that the dot.com stocks are dot.zeros., and panic. That'll kill the NASDAQ.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), March 25, 2000.

Z

"Blame Canada. It's a vile, cold, wooded wasteland populated with propaganda-spewing lumberjacks and their irritating ilk. Who needs it?"

Canada is the largest country in the world. With one fifth of the world's water.

-- viewer (justp@ssing.by), March 25, 2000.

Viewer:

As I pointed out That was a quote from the article. I like Canada. Still, Canada has become part of the American polical process. Makes no difference whether they want to be there. For that reason, the artical is of interest.

Best wishes,,,,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

Viewer:

By the way, from what I read, the term "Blame Canada" came from South Park; created by a Canadian.

Best wishes,,,,,

Z

-- Z1x4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

Next cause of a fair sized market drop: 1. Greed 2. Overvalued Internet stocks (dot.com mania) 3. Reality sets in concering item number 2

This is a pretty safe guess, because number 3 is already starting....

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), March 25, 2000.

Banks calling in loans...

Refinancing homes to buy more stuff, ie greed,not need.

Banks who CONTINUE to lend to folks who dont have enough money now.

ABC check cash places which enable those who dont have credit to begin with to spend what they dont have.

I dont believe we will see the seriousness until slick willy has gone, although I am no expert, I still believe somehow economy numbers arent being true.

GREENSPUN the yo yo with the interest rate hikes every other week, oh that should be #1.

Today I paid 1.29 per gallon at the pump, cheaper than I have paid in a long time, so I dont really forsee this as too much of an issue, since we all are making decent money, we pay. Right?

There, I did contribute a lil somethin somethin, even though I am not a whizz on this sort of topic. If I'm wrong, all the better.

I WILL NOT allow myself to stress as I did in 99 waiting for the ball to drop and the lites to go off....lol.

-- consumer (shh@aol.com), March 25, 2000.

Lots of people taking all of their money out.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), March 25, 2000.

I don't put money in wall street, just won't do it.

But a guy at work has a theory. Interest rates in japan have been approx zero, soon individuals there will be able to buy us stocks and other investments over the internet. Big increase in demand.

-- jth (jthres@hotmail.com), March 26, 2000.

The next market downturn (don't know how you define "crash") will be caused because more people sell stock than buy stocks. This could happen for any or all of the reasons already cited. OTOH, as long as 401k's exist, it seems likely that money will continue to enter the market since there's no place else to earn a reasonable return on investment. I suspect this will continue for a long time yet.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 26, 2000.

Z

"Still, Canada has become part of the American polical process. Makes no difference whether they want to be there."

Huh? What part? Be where? Next door? And what Canadian wrote South Park? Are we on the same planet?

-- viewer (justp@ssing.by), March 26, 2000.

DEBT: The ponzi scheme can only continue as long as someone else is there to buy. People are maxing out on their debt.

nancy

-- NH (new@mindspring.com), March 26, 2000.

War-More specifically: ROC against Taiwan, involving U.S., concurrent with N. Korea going for S. Korea, and the Russians joining up with the Serbs against NATO forces,Pakistan allying with Russia

-- ESI (inthebunker@NORAD.mil), March 26, 2000.

Any thing will be the start of the next war, unless we as a people tell them where to go. Most wars are money based not werth fighting for. Most war are not in our interest.

-- ET (bneville@zebra.net), March 26, 2000.

ET:

Care to define "them"? Care to define "our interest"?

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 27, 2000.

G. Market will not crash severely

-- Happy (go@luck.E), March 27, 2000.