My ten seconds of... something.

At least the reporter didnt misquote me... but he left out the comments about the Senate testimony and the GAO reports, etc.

*Sigh*

Diane

Published Sunday, December 5, 1999, in the San Jose Mercury News

Home preparation: Officials worry that residents are not ready.

BY ED POPE Mercury News Staff Writer

http://www.mercurycenter.com/premium/front/docs/prudent05.htm

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

No one knows whether the millennium bug will bite or die a quiet death, but as the final days tick down, authorities fear too few people are ready for Y2K -- or any other potential emergency.

A recent survey conducted for the city of San Jose, for example, indicates that little more than a fifth of residents plan to stockpile extra water -- the most critical element in any emergency larder -- before the new year.

About the same number are planning to put up an emergency supply of food, according to the survey.

The city, the county, the state, the federal government, the Red Cross and senior citizen organizations are encouraging every citizen to take prudent precautions in case the nation's computer systems founder. But some experts say interest in the subject peaked early this year, and many people apparently feel safe in Silicon Valley.

``I don't think it's going to be as bad as people think,'' said Barbara Salazar, administrative manager for Redwood Mutual Water Co. in the Santa Cruz Mountains. ``They have like a bazillion computer gurus in Silicon Valley. If Silicon Valley can't get Y2K compliant, nobody can!''

Many of the microchips -- used in the computers that control everything from air traffic to the generation of electricity -- use only two digits to store the year. The fear is that when the calendar rolls over from 1999 to 2000, computers and other systems that have not been updated will read the double zeros of the new year as 1900 rather than 2000. Interpreting the year wrong could cause systems to malfunction.

`Normal preparations'

Public agencies see the heightened awareness of Y2K -- about 80 percent of the people surveyed were aware of possible problems -- as an opportunity to get the citizenry ready for anything. But of those who knew of potential Y2K problems, less than half said they had made any preparations.

``We're not advocating extreme measures, but we are urging that people make normal preparations, as they would for a flood, fire or quake,'' said Dallas Jones, chief of the governor's Office of Emergency Services. ``We know these things are coming.''

Jones said the state has no reliable data on how many of California's citizens are ready for Y2K, but all four of the OES's centers will be open and will coordinate any emergency responses with the counties and cities as the new year arrives.

For some residents, getting ready is more than an exercise -- it's an absolute necessity.

Diane Squire of Los Gatos knows well what an earthquake can do, and she has scoured the Internet for Y2K information that might help family, friends and neighbors.

``I'm going for the basics in terms of water, food and heat. I'm treating it as though I'm going camping at home,'' she said. ``It seems wise in my mind to be prepared for the unexpected.'' She even bought a stove that can prepare meals using burning twigs.

Squire and others are storing up as much for a natural disaster or a wicked winter as they are for what might happen at midnight on Dec. 31 or in the days and weeks that follow, when any computer problems become more evident.

``I'm pretending that this is a big earthquake coming. I mean a big one, like the one in Turkey,'' said Squire, who lived a few miles from the epicenter of the 1994 Northridge temblor and lost water and power for a week.

While some worry that the Y2K problem might interrupt the delivery of electricity and natural gas, William Ulrich, a Y2K consultant and president of Tactical Strategy Group in Soquel, is more wary of problems with oil and gasoline.

``If there are problems in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, we could see a drop in availability by the third week in January,'' he said. ``The 1973-74 oil crisis was (only) a 7 percent drop.'' And that brought blockslong lines at gas stations for months.

Ulrich, who has advised public agencies on planning for Y2K, said he leans toward having emergency supplies at home because fuel disruptions could hinder the delivery of essential goods.

So do quake veterans Robert Parker and Elaine Segal, who have homes in Aptos and Campbell and are preparing for both Y2K and another temblor.

``We live five miles from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta quake, and we were out of our home for six months,'' Parker said. ``We were lucky. We had supplies and camped in our back yard for a week and spent the rest of the time in a motel.''

The next quake, they reckoned, could be worse, so they're buying large cans of freeze-dried or dehydrated foods that can be stored for many years.

``He's talking about a year. I think it would be a tremendous step forward to have three months of supplies,'' Segal said. ``We have two barrels of water at each house. We have a lantern and flashlights and a solar-powered radio with a hand crank.''

The uncertainty about whether Y2K will actually disrupt critical systems, however, has left some in limbo.

``I have mixed feelings,'' said Jim McGee of San Jose as he surveyed shelves bulging with survival supplies at the Beehive store in South San Jose. He was trying to decide what, if anything, to stock up on. ``I guess I should get something, but I really don't get all that excited. If it happens, it happens.''

Francis LeBaron, who owns the Beehive, said his regular customers have long since prepared.

``Between August of 1998 and March of 1999, I saw at least a 500 percent increase in preparedness,'' he said. Then the Y2K scare fizzled. ``What people are more worried about now are earthquakes. In my 50 years in preparation, I've seen more people getting ready in the last two months than ever before.''

At the Beehive, camping outlets and surplus stores, folks are buying everything from kerosene stoves and 55-gallon water drums to hand-cranked grain mills.

Priscilla Kremer, a community services officer for the Fremont Police Department, knows exactly what she's going to do because ``I don't know whether Y2K will cause disruptions, and I don't think anyone else does, either.

``I've got some food and water and medical supplies,'' she said. ``I'm picking up a tent, a heater, more food items and waterproof matches because you have no idea what the weather will be like. At the very minimum, I expect to have supplies for 72 hours -- safer would be a month.''

Wide food choices

A wide variety of storable foods is available today, including cereals, milk, crackers, soups, rice, desserts and dozens of entrees, from scrambled eggs to shrimp Creole. A family of four could store a year's supply of food in an area roughly four feet wide, a foot and a half deep and eight feet high at a cost of about $3,500.

On a more modest scale, a single person could get by for three days on $30 to $50, storing just instant foods. Military-style instant foods, for example, are warmed by a chemical reaction and don't require a stove.

``The thing we preach for Y2K is no different than preparing for any other disaster,'' said Anthony Marek, a spokesman for the Red Cross in San Jose. ``We recommend enough disaster supplies to last from several days to a week.''

Authorities agree that the most important things to keep on hand are bottled water, an extra supply of medications, a flashlight and batteries, waterproof matches, at least some storable foods, a radio, walking shoes, sleeping bags or blankets, gloves, a camp stove, a first aid kit, toiletries, a knife, tweezers for slivers, a mechanical can opener and a little extra cash in case there are problems with ATMs.

Mark Burton, manager of San Jose's Year 2000 Project, said the city has spent three years preparing, and essential services -- police, fire, ambulances, hospitals, traffic control and water treatment -- are ready for Y2K.

``The rollover into the year 2000 will be the biggest non-event of the millennium,'' he said. But just in case, the city recommends that each family have a preparedness kit and a way to contact each member of the household in the event of an emergency.

Senior citizens are advised to prepare for Y2K or any other disaster much the same way anyone else would.

``They also need copies of recent bank statements, utility and medical bills and retirement fund records to make sure their balances are the same after the first of the year,'' said Greg Tompkins, spokesman for the San Jose Office on Aging.

In a warning to all residents, but seniors in particular, Barbara Stanke, a specialist with the Senior Information and Referral Agency, said scammers are targeting bank accounts because of the Y2K scare. She cautioned everyone not to give out financial information to strangers over the phone.

``They call and say your account is in jeopardy because of Y2K,'' she said. ``They ask for your account number, and then they wipe out the bank account.''

Contact Ed Pope at epope@sjmercury.com or (408) 920-5641.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 05, 1999

Answers

Ed Pope, the S.J. Merc reporter working on the piece called me mid- week. We chatted about Y2K and my concerns and what I was doing to get ready. He wanted to come out and take pictures of my camping preparations. (No way).

Basically my prep message to him was... be prepared... to go camping... at home. (Which he seems to have picked up on). Also, that I'm using Y2K as an excuse to get ready for the "big one..." since Id already lived through the experience of the Northridge quake in 1994, thank you very much (earthquakes are an appropriate angle for California preparedness messages).

Told him Y2K might not twist the steel or crack the pavements like an earthquake, but the repercussions could be similar, and in the longer term really have an impact on our global supply chains and both local and national economies. (He didnt use that one).

The reporter wasn't really interested in the newsmedia disconnect between what Koskinen says versus the Senate testimony or GAO reports. His slant appeared to be solely on preparing. He even went out to the local Mormon preparedness store (clearly), and we talked about my favorite sign (but I see he didnt reference it)...

PG&E (Pacific Gas & Electric Company) says...

When the Hayward Fault snaps, expect to be without power, lights, gasoline, water & natural gas for 2 to 8 weeks... until services can be repaired!

Who knows? If this will do anything in Silicon Valley. Or not.

Stay tuned. Next year... is just around the corner.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 05, 1999.

Just read the sections in the Merc. I am also writing to the three columnists and copying "letters" to the editorial section. I will add Ed Pope.

Diane, I figured your quotes were not fully reported. It could have been worse. Having been in that situation myself, I suspect you thought through your quotable remarks carefully, just to get the quality of what was printed! (as in give them easy to use, clear, concise sound bites)

I am going to ask about:

The timing of the articles-- as in why so late

The lack of global impact information- our favorites, petroleum, shipping, imports and jit inventory.

The focus on the weekend as opposed to the more current thinking and concerns for longer term economic "malaise".

Lack of mention of the GAO reporting efforts as well as some of the disturbing testimony by Cap Gemini and International Monitoring in October

Concerns over viruses were listed but no mention of cyber or other forms of potential terrorism such as last Friday's articles about the possible terrorist attack on the propane farm near Sacramento

And finally, the fact that product status continues to change (Infoliant web site) and that IBM continues to issue PTFs on the OS/390 and AS/400 systems. Should that worry us?

Is it too late to go on record with the press? Who knows. Maybe if enough of us continue writing... sigh

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), December 05, 1999.

Diane,

You're supposed to get 15 minutes, not 10 seconds!!

You still have 14 minutes and 50 seconds left! -grin-

Thanks for the good work, as always...

-- joe (joe@adeveloper.net), December 05, 1999.

``They have like a bazillion computer gurus in Silicon Valley. If Silicon Valley can't get Y2K compliant, nobody can!''

Add that to the list of Famous Last Words! It reminds me of the quote that was popular in our city in the winter of 1997. We had twice the amount of snow, with three times the water content as normal. All winter long all I heard was "If it floods my house the whole city will be under water." Well, that spring 50,000 people evacuated Grand Forks, ND and East Grand Forks, MN for three weeks (at least) in the largest evacuation of a city in the US since the burning of Atlanta during the Civil War.

You would think people here learned their lesson, but almost no one is preparing here either. I also have had the interviews with reporters wanting to take pictures (also no). I guess you could add some Famous Last Words from me "Well, I could be wrong and it might be a BITR".

-- Kevin Lemke (klemke@corpcomm.net), December 05, 1999.

Diane,

Just like the moviesshoot 3 hours of film for a 30-second clip. Just out of curiosity why did the M-N contact you for this article? BTW, I lived in LG from 1975-81 and miss it a bunch. As you are coming out of the downtown area on Broadway and heading up the hill, there are 4 old Victorians on the left hand side of the street that were built identical. If my history is correct they were originally housing the supervisors that worked in the old quicksilver mines. I bought and restored the second unit and loved the area. That particular neighborhood had quite a bit of damage from the 1989 quake.

-- Ready (4@it.com), December 05, 1999.

Diane: Good job. We've certainly seen far worse than this out of the media. The only problem is timing. With everyone gearing up and spending for Christmas, few if any will heed the advise.

From what I've been reading over the past year, I would guess that the percentage of Californians preparing for Y2K is somewhat higher than the national average. You're right about the earthquake angle - it flies fairly well in California. Unfortunately, even though Iowa sits just north of the epicenter of the largest earthquake ever recorded in the US (9.5 - New Madrid fault zone), they do not occur here often enough to be reminders. Indeed, I've only felt one very minor earthquake in Iowa during my lifetime.

Due to unseasonably mild winters the past several years, even the 'winter storm' angle doesn't cut the mustard here.

On the other hand, the 'long holiday weekend' plays very well here. Some extra snacks and and new large screen TV for the games and you're all set for Y2K.

Some specific comments:

"They have like a bazillion computer gurus in Silicon Valley. If Silicon Valley can't get Y2K compliant, nobody can!"

Just a variation on the old "Bill Gates will fix it" argument.

The rollover into the year 2000 will be the biggest non-event of the millennium,'' he said. But just in case, the city recommends that each family have a preparedness kit and a way to contact each member of the household in the event of an emergency.

This often-repeated mixed message is at the heart of the problem. Imagine if the weather folks said "Clear and sunny today with no chance of rain. But just in case we recommend you take your umbrella and rubber boots."

Still, much of the advise in the article was far better than anything you see out of Iowa's local media.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), December 05, 1999.

Correction: "advice" not "advise" et al. Sorry.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), December 05, 1999.

Diane,

I have found that your "camping at home," message works quite well. I'm loathe to talk about y2k with anyone irl, but recently several coworkers have asked my opinion. "Camping at home" is what I tell them -- that, and that alone. No convincing facts, no hype, just that simple message. I tend to believe they hear that message because they keep coming back to me with practical prep questions.

I suspect what makes the camping-at-home message so "hearable" is that people recognize they can always go camping for real if problems/disruptions do not come to pass. It seems to eliminate the fear-of-appearing-foolish factor.

A respectful nod your way, Diane. That's been a good one.

-- (resignedNOmore@this.point), December 05, 1999.

Whew!

About 5-6 more Y2K-related articles in today's Merc. I'll post the rest later. Gotta run to the local Farmer's Market and meet friends for a latte... and buy the print copy of the Merc.

*Grin*

Thanks all.

Camping works well for me, and is NOT as threatening to others. It is "what works." Even on a global scale.

Took some of my friends over to REI and they bought a tent, sleeping bags, water filter, etc., then we've made a couple runs to http://www.realgoods.com's new store where they bought a camp stove, BayGen radio, etc. I have a bunch of new solar goodies and preparedness items too!

((((Kewl!))))

Why did the Merc call me? Because over a year ago I started getting to know my local Y2K reporters and keeping in *some* contact with them and helping them find background research information, whenever they asked when they were having troubles finding things. Used to e-mail then "interesting" articles too. They remember.

Ya never know... were the ripples will flow.

;-D

Diane

(Latte time!)

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 05, 1999.

Arnie,

Tha all depends on what your definition of prepared is. My LA sister who told me she had prepared for a quake { been hammering her for years}. She's put an extra pair of reading glasses in her car. That's it.

A few days ago she told me she's prepped for the new year - a couple of extra cases of wine.

It takes a certain amount of cheek to thrive in places like LA or Manhattan.

{And I hope like crazy that she's still in a snickering mood next year}.

-- flora (***@__._), December 05, 1999.

Diane,

You sound awfully rational, not like a doomer (te he).

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 05, 1999.

The Merc really devoted a lot of print space to Y2K. The article above starts on the front page, and almost the whole Business section is devoted to it.

Go figure.

Will post more articles later. (Things to do).

Mara,

I've NEVER been a "doomer" as some would have it, and tended to be a middle grounder... still am... like Arnie.

;-D

Just... prepared... for more.

C'est-ce la vie.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 05, 1999.

Diane,

As I was reading the original article, the Hayward Fault just came to mind...(please correct me if I'm wrong, but the last major break was in 1857?)

Then I read your answer which mentions...the Hayward Fault! Perhaps coming events cast their shadows before them, to paraphrase a Victorian aphorism.

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), December 05, 1999.

"The reporters who came to the press conference in the office of the John Galt Line were young men who had been trained to think that their job consisted of concealing from the world the nature of its events. It was their daily duty to serve as audience for some public figure who made utterances about the public good, in phrases carefully chosen to convey no meaning. It was their daily job to sling words together in any combination they pleased, so long as the words did not fall into a sequence saying something specific..." ---Atlas Shrugged

-- (exscribe@stillshrugging.com), December 05, 1999.

Don't recall the exact date, but most everyone in the quake bis thinks it'll be the Hayward fault that snaps next. Since I live close to the San Andreas fault... it's like being caught between a rock... and a hard place.

Personally, I think it's the SJ Merc reporters that may "snap" first.

;-D

Diane

Links...

All the main SJ Merc stories and sidebars:

Special Report: Y2K Survival Guide: San Jose Mercury News: Sunday, December 5, 1999

http:// www.sjmercury.com/special/mill/y2kprep/

See also... an interesting graphic, from the front page of the Business section:

http://www.sjmercury.com/special/mill/y2kprep/ 120599impact.htm

And other TBY2K forum threads posted (so far):

Y2K Home Preparation: Officials Worry That Residents Are Not Ready (San Jose Mercury News)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001vpd

Valley's New Year's Mix: Work And Play; High-Tech: Workers On Y2K Duty To Be Offered A Fun Atmosphere -- Minus Booze (San Jose Mercury News )

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001vra

Y2K Financial Advisers' Bottom Line: Stay Cool (San Jose Mercury News)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001vrt

For VCRs And The Like, 1972 Is The Quick, Easy Y2K Solution [Also... Rick Cowles & Embedded Systems] (San Jose Mercury News)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001vsH

Y2K Fixes Cost Billions, With Real Test To Come (San Jose Mercury News)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001vzz

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 05, 1999.

Diane, you put in a long, hard day. At least the family that is closest to my heart read the Merc today. My son called and wanted to know if I had composed my letter to the editor and the columnists yet, "yep"

Time for a latte at Peets near Lunardis or the little place next to the Sunday farmers market. Used to go there myself before I moved over the hill.. Nice work as always. We owe you and the other sysops big for all your work and the stuff you get to put up with.

thx, Nancy

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), December 05, 1999.