How safe will Los Angeles be during y2k? I have relatives who live down there(fortuanately I'm in Oregon where things should be ok)and I'm really concerned for them. If all that happens to LA is they experience a 'Rodney King Reaction' or two I don't think that they'll have much too worry about. If the iron triangle goes down for weeks though it will be everyone for themselves. Please give me your input on how safe LA will be during rollover; I'm worried about their safety and don't want them living in a warzone.

-- Predictions on LA for y2k (need@toknow.com), November 27, 1999

Answers

By February and March, Los Angeles will be chaos and a war zone. You better urge them to move to Oregon and buy lot's of extra bulk food so all of you will survive. After Jan. 1st it will not be possible to move such a distance. If electricity is off you cannot pump gas. Either they join you in December or tell them to forget it.

-- bbb (bbb@bbb.com), November 27, 1999.

An important point to remember when asking questions like this: The size of the LA/other counties Metropolitan area. It is huge; until you've been here a while it's difficult really grasp the scale of the place. Therefore, a more precise question would be: where in the S. California megalopolis is there the most likelihood for civil disruption? The Road Warrior was a work of fiction if I remember correctly; and my crystal ball stopped working decades ago, drat it! Take a breath, Lovelies.

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 27, 1999.

Don't move to Oregon, it's cold and rainy. Move to nice warm sunny Arizona instead, it's closer too.

-- (go@else.where), November 27, 1999.

LA's water is pumped over the mountains. Does that system have backup generators? How much fuel? If water is cut off to LA for two weeks, everybody is dead. All the water, beer, etc. in storage will have been consumed. The populace can't all make it to Lake Arrowhead.

Nice climate, though. Nobody freezes to death.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), November 27, 1999.

Don't move to Arizona, it is unbearably hot in the summer. Nobody in Oregon owns an airconditioner and it does not get very cold in the winter! The rain makes everything nice and green in Oregon. Arizona is mostly ugly desert!

-- bbb (bbb@bbb.com), November 27, 1999.

Water: Many Orange County cities run 50-75 percent on city owned and operated wells, and make up the difference from what the MWD (Metropolitan Water District) robs from other places. I've recommended before and now do again, the book, later a PBS series, entitled "The Cadillac Desert", about how it is possible to pump in population into the desert by the "redirection" of water from other places,....great stuff on the creation of the San Fernando Valley when Mullholland crooked his way into the Owens Valley for water, the big boom town time; and then the best presentation on the multiple dam projects on the Colorado River ever done....A must read or see, or both.

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 27, 1999.

Don't Californicate Oregon or Arizona!

-- Slobby Don (slobbydon@hotmail.com), November 27, 1999.

What do you suppose the "carrying capacity" of the LA basin is if food, water and electricity were not being imported?

How many chemical plants are nearby?

Chances are if they haven't made plans to leave by now they probably won't.

Check out "Shelter in Place"... and I think Robert Waldrup has put together some excellent advice for survival in the city (though I don't have the link handy).

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), November 27, 1999.

Ahh.. here's the link: How to Survive and Prosper During the Y2K Crisis -- Without Leaving Town...Stay home, stay safe, and live well. Thanks Robert. Good stuff.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), November 27, 1999.

Hey, Californians! Come to Las Vegas for rollover! We have a whole lake outside of town, and we also have 24 hour buffets open. If the computers go down, our slot machines may actually pay out occasionally.

-- Wayne Newton (die in L@s.vegas.com), November 27, 1999.

LA will be toasted ash. ;(

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), November 27, 1999.

The LA Basin has a population roughly equal to the state of New Jersey crammed into maybe one third the area. It relies on vast quantities of imported water, food and power.

Tranportation into and out of the Basin is concentrated through a limited number of corridors routed through canyon passes. And the power lines, aqueducts, natural gas and petroleum pipelines all use the same corridors.

The LA Basin and most of Southern California are living the old saying of "Having all its eggs in one basket." If things start going wrong there is limited time for people to hang around waiting for them to get better, 'cause when the herd starts trying to move out of the basin it's going to get crowded in those key choke points.

There are not enough traffic cops in the world to keep that under control. Millions of cars and trucks and you can bet the inbound lanes will get used too. That will end up blocking all the traffic lanes for any assitance being brought in.

I hope you can get your family to realize that if they delay departing LA they may never get out due to the largest traffic jam ever known.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), November 27, 1999.

Used to live there. Los Angeles has very limited water and tremendous reliance upon petroleum for gasoline and electric power. Public transit is extremely limited

The enormous population is racially, culturally and ethnically diverse and pretty much polarized between the haves and the have nots. Politics, and lifestyles run the gamut.

The geography is subject to earthquakes. They also have problems with brush fires, mudslides, etc.

Not my choice for the year 2000.

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), November 27, 1999.

What do you suppose the "carrying capacity" of the LA basin is if food, water and electricity were not being imported?

Based on information from the turn of the century, at the time Mullholland began the massive importation of water, the carrying capacity of LA before the Owens Valley and the Colorado River was 1/2 million people.

Scrunch those numbers....Compare those years...Carrying capacity is way beyond moot here. But of course whole systems is not worth speaking of. (a cynic is an idealist turned inside-out)

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 27, 1999.

My family is down there. Orange County and Indio. Definitely will have some problems there. Water. "Connecting With PG&E" will tell you much about how that wonderful company is taking care their profits. PG&E supplies power to a lot of important links in the California chain of well-being.

Sad, but those still there won't go until they are compelled to leave, then it will prob. be too late.

-- johno (jobriy2k@yahoo.com), November 27, 1999.

I'm sorry but I don't get the "too late" reference. Do you have a crystal ball with a gilt-edged guarantee? If things go to hell there will still be pockets of people all over,...even in this hellhole place, as so many like to call it. Universe! I get tired of the S. California as toast references...In S. California we will not worry about heating...we have an ocean for food, and for water with desalinization...we have many creative people who never quite "got" the whole "civilization" thing as defined by governments...Seems like a reasonable enough place to make a stand. Quit projecting your own fears. Deal with your choices and let others deal with theirs...

--She in the sheet on the hilltop, in a huff,...

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), November 27, 1999.

WATER, Donna, WATER! How you gonna desalinate the pacific without electricity.Your naivete's gonna kill you.

-- Alfred E (What@meWorry.com), November 27, 1999.

"...we have many creative people who never quite "got" the whole "civilization" thing as defined by governments..."

Yep. We know. Those creative folks who riot, loot, burn, fight & kill over a jury verdict, & those creative gang-bangers who shoot at each other daily in the barrios. Civilized behavior is definitely a foreign concept down there.

I can't imagine any serious GI still living in the LA area, unless he has a death wish.

It must have been just beautiful back in the 1920's, when there were still fruit trees & room to breathe, before the third world invaded & trashed the place. Oh well!

-- no longer (living@in.california), November 27, 1999.

Well, I guess that Donna and Michael and Carlos and yours truly and all us other SoCal residents might as well just cash it in. Sounds like some folks in the Forum got a touch of the Jeanne Dixons and can see crystal-clearly what Y2K holds for us. *sheesh*

Alfred - Water may indeed be a very serious challenge, but we're in one of the best areas for solar power in the US. Electicity? Got it in spades, friend.

"The readiness is all."

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), November 28, 1999.

Like it was durring the Rodny King riots, only this time, the riots won't end soon, if at all...

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), November 28, 1999.

Mac, you know I love you! (Still wish you would email sometime!) Regarding southern CA, which I relocated from (don't Californicate message me, I'm from Minnesota anyway), you cannot underestimate the desperate mob factor. The arson and violence may be beyond breathtaking. When the dust settles, how safe will it be to move around? Yes, pockets of survivors, but I imagine that many of those survivors will be the brutal people, the most ruthless and well- armed. Realistically, in over a decade, I knew of not one person with equipment or knowledge to convert salt water into potable water. I knew of only one person who went ocean fishing. How many average joes/janes even know how to get fish from the ocean? How many will have access to the ocean? I don't disagree with survivors. It just will not be a very ideal place to be. Let's just say that being in an area like that, or New York City, etc. will likely greatly reduce your odds of surviving. My sincere best wishes....

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), November 28, 1999.

Mumsie -

I was grateful to be very, very south of LA during the Rodney King riots. Watched the area around Florence and Normandie (never a great neighborhood) turn into a war zone. Saw some heroism and some thuggery, just as I did when those morons in Denver rioted after the Broncos WON! Should times turn tough, I'll happily take my chances in the company of a phalanx of Marines (some current, some retired, all Marines) here in San Diego. Won't abandon my in-laws nor my 88-year-old granma. 'Nuff said.

Re desalinization: the clever folks at Recovery Engineering (makers of the PUR line of water fiters) have some truly nifty marine water filters that only need 18 amps of 12-volt DC to turn the Ancient Mariner's lament into joy.

We'll know soon...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), November 28, 1999.

How long will I have to keep my head down for the weak to die and the wild to kill each other?

For every gang hanging out in the 'hood is there a Mr. Smith? You know him, 55 years old, works on the buses. What you don't know is that Mr. Smith was Sgt. Smith 1st Cav grunt in 'Nam. If he decides it's time to dig out his full auto AK-47 and a couple of left over souviner grenades, I am not betting on the punks.

-- I love L.A. (L.A.'s the@place.com), November 28, 1999.

I second I love LA.

The LA County Sheriff has Y2K contingency plans in place. Most of the local governments in the LA area were ahead of the curve on Y2K remediation, and are now announcing that they are ready for the new year. The City of Pasadena has not canceled the Rose Bowl Parade.

LA has a high concentration of engineers and scientific minded entrepreneurs of all cultures.

It is a vile canard or a Hollywood fantasy to see LA as composed of only the haves and the have-nots, with the have-nots ready to riot at the drop of a hat. There were no riots during the LA earthquakes. The Rodney King riots were an explosion from racial / political tensions, not an everyday occurrence. The crime rate has been dropping here (like the rest of the country.)

You can't say that anywhere is guaranteed safe or sure to be toast. I'll take my chances in Southern California.

-- kermit (colourmegreen@hotmail.com), November 28, 1999.

glad to hear it! whatever you do don't come to oregon and screw it up like l.a. thanx

-- (please@stay.there), November 28, 1999.

Mac, I'm glad you have good neighbors! You sound like a wonderful person, and I'm glad you love your family so much. Glad you are a GI!

To the southern CA lovers... I understand. I had no idea how rooted I had become until we moved. It's rather an amazing smoggy sprawling sunny/rainy lush/dry and diverse kind of mecca. We decided we had too many very young ones to live in a known high risk area. I will be thinking of you all, praying for you, and hoping with all my heart that you are safe and well.

Many pieces of my heart remained with those I love in southern CA....

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), November 30, 1999.