Could Dec. 1st finally be the beginning of signifigant Y2K failures? Many more programs are going to hit 2000 dates. Many more remediated programs are going to be implemented. Lou M. of Gartner Group stated recently that many companies are "barely able to presently contain failers" and "will have signifigantly more failers starting Dec. 1st". Will the Joann Effect finally materialize?

-- JJ (123@4.com), November 27, 1999

Answers

Let me turn the question round:

If "significant Y2K failures" are not evident by 15 Dec will you revise downwards your own rating of likely Y2K severity?

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), November 27, 1999.

You didn't turn it around, you changed it into something else!

-- wait (a@darn.minute!), November 27, 1999.

"Could Dec. 1st finally be the beginning of signifigant Y2K failures?"

Well, yes, I suppose it could. However, I doubt it. Every other pre- Y2K date has been nothing, I haven't seen compelling reasons to think this one will be any different. (However, the Gartner group ought to know 100x more about it than I could.) But I still doubt it.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), November 27, 1999.

Actually, I think that's a legitimate question Johnny (Although it has little to do with my original question). I have personally revised my opinion of the severity of Y2K down each month that we have not had failures serious enough to become public. There have been some problems, but they have been mostly attributed to problems with implementations of new systems, rather than outright date related failures. By the time we reach Dec 15th, I would assume that a very significant number of programs would be encountering year 2000 dates. If we are not seeing significant failures, I would consider this to be quite positive. The embeddeds are still a wildcard. But I would be more optimistic regarding the software.

-- JJ (123@4.com), November 27, 1999.

I believe it will. Many, many programs have 30-day look-aheads. I expect the failures will be much more noticeable, though short of catastrophic. Yet.

Many SME's who are waiting to FOF will get their first taste of the bug on 12/1 or 12/2 (for 30-day look-aheads, this is the "event horizon").

To answer Canuck's question: Yes, somewhat. But embeddeds are still the wildcard.

If 2000 is "The Year of Living Dangerously", December '99 will be "The Month of Mounting Maladies".

Or not.

Have I covered all the bases?

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), November 27, 1999.

I haven't used much software that had *any* future dates in it. And I doubt much of the embedded system stuff works with future dates either. I expect most of the problem on the 1st, due to embedded failures, then on the 3rd, when we see if the banks and exchanges open and operate normally, and finally by late January, when supply chain disruptions will be obvious. Each of those days that pass without incident (1/1, 1/3, 1/31) will bring a huge sigh of relief from me.

But I doubt that Dec 1 will be any more significant than Apr 1 or Sep 1 were.

-- You Know... (notme@nothere.junk), November 27, 1999.

In your opinion Steve, would the IT persons operating these systems be able to use 12/31/99 as the end date as to not hit year 2000 dates? Thereby delaying possible failures to the last possible moment.

-- JJ (123@4.com), November 27, 1999.

Then in your opinion You Know, what is the meaning of the cryptic statement from Lou M.?

-- JJ (123@4.com), November 27, 1999.

EMBEDDED CHIPS

That is the great unknown, the dangerous part of Y2K.

Most things done with software can be done by hand if it comes to that. But how are we going to substitute for what some of those chips are doing until they are replaced?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 27, 1999.

JJ: Yes, but the code would need to be rewritten, which is as time- consuming as any Y2k fix would be.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), November 27, 1999.

I think that whether or not Y2k comes and goes as a bump-in-the-road depends on whether any catastrophic events happen world wide. This includes major attacks with nukes by countries against other countries they hate and things like major accidents with nuclear and chemical plants, and world-wide critical supplies like oil. These seem to me to be the uncontrollable wild card events of Y2K.

-- nothing (better@to.do), November 27, 1999.

If there are noticeable Y2k problems before Dec. 31 then there might be panic in December.

No reported problems? Then my guess is there'll be no panic. Since the optimists believe January's problems will be neglible, there's really no need for them to hang around here anymore.

I wish I could be that sanguine about embedded systems, PC bios chips and the pirated, non-compliant software that many countries and small businesses are still using. The domino effect resulting from some of those failures could take until March to become evident.

-- Prepare (but@prepare.early), November 27, 1999.

Remeber, most, if not all bills sent in december, will be due in january 2000.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

I don't expect to see a great deal of VISIBLE (ie, public, reported) software distresss in December. There will be more anecdotal reports than we've had so far but not a whole lot more. Both large entities and SMEs can keep the PR lid on problems quite easily over a 30 or 60 day period.

The key month for software with Y2K will be March, 2000. IF Y2K is heading towards a 7 or greater, it will be impossible to hide sector- wide problems (big biz, SMEs, .gov, oil, mfg, chem, etc) by then.

If embeddeds blow in January, we may not care about March. If we can keep a lid on embeddeds and things look reasonably cool by April 1, 2000 (nothing worse than a recession developing), we're gonna make it through ok.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), November 27, 1999.

I think the thing that will wake up JQP at the end of January is pulling into the gas station to find no gas. If everyone waits until the last day or so to top off their tanks, it will empty the system. The pipe lines are going to be shut down on the 31st thus the system isn't going to come right back up. The first week of Jan the stations will be empty, power or no power. Another thing is that I think you will start to see before the end of the month, very small businesses like mom and pop gas stations, fruit stands, second hand stores, yard sales, etc start refusing checks. And also credit cards for gasoline.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie123@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

ooops!! thats pulling into a gas station the end of DECEMBER.

-- Taz (Tassie123@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

If December brings major Y2K problems, it will certainly be an indicator of far worse to come in January (though February and March are the months to really watch and worry about), but despite Johnny Canuck's mindless pollyism, a December WITHOUT major Y2K problems doesn't tell us much at all. You see, Johnny boy, December, 1999 is not a month in 2000 and this is a Year 2000 problem. Should I say it once again, slower, for you?

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), November 27, 1999.

OOOPS! thats pulling into a gas station the end of DECEMBER.

-- Taz (Tassie123@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

john, jj

the vast majority of business computer systems deal with events recorded in the past; relatively few do 'look aheads'. therefore, the vast majority of problems will occur when '00' gets involved in a calculation that has already happened, ie next year.

while some problems with forward-looking apps have already occured these havent effected the core applications that most business rely upon but have effected budget forecasting and things like that .. not show stoppers that would cripple a company.

of course, all the programs that have been rushed into production during the past 6 monthss and are failing are a whole other matter ...

-- lou (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), November 27, 1999.

I think that December 1999 will be a non-event, for most shops. However January 1900, that's another story.

Have fun, drink beer, and most of all please don't feed the pollys.
John 9.5

-- John 9.5 Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), November 27, 1999.

December is the last month for 1999 program patches to work.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 27, 1999.

If problems occur in December, we may not hear about them for several weeks. The problems that have occurred in new systems of several large companies (P&G, Whirlpool, etc.) did not make the news for several weeks or months.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), November 27, 1999.

Just in case, I'm going to finish my water bottling before the first.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

I seriously doubt that December will bring any obvious Y2K failures. The theory of critical dates pre-2000 has not been valid, as we have seen. Since the core of the problem hinges on the year 2000, it seems pretty reasonable to assume that a date in 1999 would have no impact.

BTW...I agree with Taz. One of the biggest wildcards is the oil and gas situation. Even if the infrastructure holds otherwise (and I still have my doubts...especially about electricity), a critical supply shortfall of gasoline and heating oil would be catastrophic. Regions like the Northeast and Midwest would crumble if there was little or no petroleum based energy available. And I'm not just thinking about business. I'm thinking about ordinary folks not being able to heat their homes or drive their cars. Think about it...hypothermia would be the word of the moment and the human cost would be staggering.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), November 27, 1999.

JJ,

If there are noticeable problems in December, it wouldn't be due to the Jo Anne Effect. Few organizations will be entering their fiscal year 2000 on December 1st. Any December problems would tend to be of the pure "lookahead" variety...for example, billing or appointemnts for January made in December.

This thread...

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f

...is a good introduction to what fiscal year rollovers in accounting software (the Jo Anne Effect) are, and what they are not.

The government's Y2K information coordination center does not begin 24-hour operation until December 28th:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001jjc

That's one clue as to when generally noticeable problems might begin. And I agree with snooze button...December 31st is the last day that the kind of temporary patches used this year by some programs such as unemployment insurance will be working.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 27, 1999.

JJ,

I just noticed that you also said...

I have personally revised my opinion of the severity of Y2K down each month that we have not had failures serious enough to become public.

When fiscal year rollovers on February 1st resulted in no reported problems for organizations such as Wal-Mart or Home Depot, I pretty much assumed at that point that April 1st, July 1st and October 1st would turn out to be tame, too. It isn't accounting software problems or general ledgers that the public would notice--it's manufacturing or distribution problems they would notice, and the Jo Anne Effect is about accounting.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 27, 1999.

I'm feeling lazy, has anyone looked to see if an above average number of companies have requested delayed filing for their most recent 10- Q? Might, again ... might give an indication on possible problems with encountering future dates as discussed above.

-- PD (PaulDMaher@att.worldnet.com), November 28, 1999.