New to this Forum? Some "Other" resources and informationgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
For those happening onto this forum, some thoughts and information. Ultimately, it is up to you to decide.
TimeBomb2000 Forum
Given enough time, most folks will figure this out for themselves. Unfortunately, those happening here at this point don't have much time. Therefore, at least my opinions on this forum.
First, don't mistake this for a neutral source of information. It is not. The information presented here is almost uniformly negative. If you search through the archives, you'll also find just about every form of anti-government, anti-establishment propaganda available. These posts are typically welcomed with either little comment, or encouragement. While posts with positive news on Y2k are almost uniformly ridiculed.
OK, so be it. The forum is what it is. But a change has taken place in the last week. Apparently, a week ago (weekend of 11/19) the forum was subject to "attacks", consisting of multiple duplicate postings. The individuals responsible were wrong, and should have been banned. Fine. But the SYSOPS here have apparently taken the opportunity to also ban and delete postings from other individuals. And, what to my mind is the worst, they have also deleted postings and threads questioning what they were doing. So, not only are a group of individuals now being deleted, you are not allowed to even question the acts.
Again, so be it. This is "their" forum, and "they" can do what they like. Just understand what it is.
For a more in-depth look, check out this thread:
Opinion: TB2000 Censorship- The Double Standard
Utilities, Oil and Embedded Systems Posts
Recently, FactFinder put together a series of posts that contained a wealth of information. Well worth the read.
The Electric Utilities Y2K Status Reference List
Oil & Gas Revisited - IT and Embedded Systems
"Oil & Gas Revisted" Responses - A reply to Perry, Linkmiester, and Paula Gordon
Some of my posts
Read if you wish, and make up your own mind. My opinion is, and has been, that the IT problems stemming from Y2k will be dealt with. No software system has yet been invented that functioned 100% error-free.
Increasingly, the evidence shows that we have already been through periods of IT system disruptions that at the very least equal, if not exceed, problems that will stem from Y2k.
For more information, see this thread:
For a very detailed look at this premise, and if you're having trouble sleeping, see these threads covering a "Debate" I had with Steve Heller:
Finally, went a few rounds of posts with Ed Yourdon, the original sponsor of this forum.
Ed Yourdon's Open Letter to Alan Greenspan
Counterpoint: Response for Mr Yourdon
The Flip Side
Other sites take quite a different view of the subject. As a counterbalance:
In addition to the forum above, the top contains a number of links to other sites, including this one.
And finally, you won't get far into this subject before encountering Gary North. For counter-balance, see:
This forum is quite large, and takes a long time to load. And despite the name, contains quite a bit of information on Y2k. Start at the bottom, and work your way up. You'll begin to understand the current state of the Y2k debate on the web, and where we've been.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), November 26, 1999
Hoffmeister,This forum is for people who already think there might be problems come Y2K. I am not interested in hearing so-called "good news," i.e., that something will be as usual, because I ALREADY KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT AND WHAT TO DO IN NORMAL TIMES.
I need to read what MIGHT go wrong and how, so I know how to plan contingencies, just like many businesses and institutions are doing (e.g., the Navy War College). The odds are I will never need contingency plans, but I NEED TO KNOW WHAT MIGHT GO WRONG JUST IN CASE.
Do you paternalistic, meddling, self-righteous, interfering pollies understand this simple concept? I don't NEED details of fine weather when the sun is shining, I need to know if there's a chance of rain, so I can put my umbrella in the car. Understand?
Anyone else feel free to get this point across. Good luck.
-- A (ray@of.light), November 26, 1999.
More Y2K resources...http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/policy.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20% 28Y2000%29
This forum is intended for people who are concerned about the impact of the Y2000 problem on their personal lives, and who want to discuss various fallback contingency plans with other like-minded people. It's not intended to provide advice/guidance for solving Y2000 problems within an IT organization.In the spirit of TB2000's "mission-statement," I've compiled a list of resources, sites and links that you may find useful while researching the Century Date Change.
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The Executive Summary of the Senate Y2K Committee's 100 day report:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001Rwk
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/exec_sum_100days.pdfThe Senate Y2K Committee's 100 day report:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001SFC
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/-------
http://www.accessatlanta.com/partners/ajc/reports/y2k/dos.html
[snip]
[The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: 9.19.99]
Be prepared: A list of do's
By Marilyn Geewax
Atlanta Journal-Constitution Staff Writer
Washington -- Don't panic, but get prepared. While the nation's basic infrastructure will function after Jan. 1, authorities say the Y2K computer bug is sure to cause some problems. The power could go out in one community, while the water system falters in another and traffic lights malfunction in still another. Because no one can say with certainty which systems might fail, "the basic message we are giving people is ... be prepared for an emergency," said Red Cross spokeswoman Leslie Credit. Start your preparations by figuring out who is going to be in your household between Dec. 31 and mid-January, and what each person's special needs will be. Then lay out a strategy for making sure everyone can stay hydrated, healthy and warm for up to two weeks. These are among the recommendations being made by mainstream agencies:
WATER
THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM:
Local providers typically keep water flowing by using pumps and valves controlled by microprocessors and chips. Computers also regulate various aspects of water treatment, such as the addition of chlorine. In addition, Y2K-related power outages could cause a loss of heat that would allow pipes to freeze and burst.
THE SOLUTION:
[snip]
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Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem:
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology:
http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/index.htm-------
Family Disaster Supplies Kit (FEMA):
http://www.fema.gov/library/diskit.htmEmergency Food and Water Supplies (FEMA):
http://www.fema.gov/library/emfdwtr.htm[snip]
Emergency Food and Water Supplies
If an earthquake, hurricane, winter storm or other disaster ever strikes your community, you might not have access to food, water and electricity for days, or even weeks. By taking a little time now to store emergency food and water supplies, you can provide for your entire family.
This brochure was developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Community and Family Preparedness Programs which provides information to help families prepare for all types of disasters.
WATER: THE ABSOLUTE NECESSITY
Stocking water reserves and learning how to purify contaminated water should be among your top priorities in preparing for an emergency. You should store at least a two-week supply of water for each member of your family.
[snip]
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Current articles about Y2K
Newswire search:
http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news?o=1&p=%22year+2000% 22+bug+glitch+y2k&za=or&t=0&g=1&n=20Newspaper article search:
http://search.excite.com/search.gw?search=%22year+2000% 22+bug*+glitch*+y2k&c=timely&callerfarm=ntInfoseek newswire search:
http://infoseek.go.com/Titles?qt=%22year+2000% 22+bug*+glitch*+y2k&col=NX%2Crf_i500sRD%2Ckt%3DA% 2Cak_news1486&sv=IS&lk=noframes&svx=home_searchboxSanger and Shannon's Review of Y2K News Reports:
http://sangersreview.com/Y2K news articles, updated daily (from WorldNetDaily):
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/y2k_index.shtml-------
The Y2K Middle Ground:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001fItTB 2000 (Y2000) Preparation Forum (Y2K Prep Only Discussions):
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20% 28Y2000%29%20Preparation%20ForumYear 2000 Preparation Archive:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=Year%202000% 20Preparation%20ArchiveBrian's Y2K research links:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001A3xEd Yourdon's Y2K links and resources:
http://www.yourdon.com/y2kresources.htmlVideo recordings of presentations on the Year 2000 problem:
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/y2k/video_index.htmContingency and Consequence Management Planning for Year 2000 Conversion - A Guide for State and Local Emergency Managers (FEMA):
http://www.fema.gov/y2k/ccmp.htm
http://www.dlg.oem2.state.co.us/oem/cpguidew.htm
http://www.fema.gov/y2k/ccmp_fl.pdfSenate Y2K Committee Hearings:
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/hearings/U.S. Department of Commerce report - "THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM AND THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM":
http://y2k.ita.doc.gov/y2k/y2k.nsf/dd5cab6801f1723585256474005327c8/b3 cb5b3db231dd9b85256759004baaa5Open letter from The Institute Of Electrical And Electronics Engineers, Inc. to Congress:
http://www.ieeeusa.org/FORUM/POLICY/99june09.htmlThe Jo Anne Effect - Fiscal year 2000 rollovers in accounting software:
http://www.computerpro.com/~phystad/jae.html
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00122f"U.S. showcases $50 million Y2K Center":
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001mUs-------
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 26, 1999.
The information presented everywhere else is almost uniformly Pollyistic-Spin-Machine product. And cannot by itself be trusted.
-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 26, 1999.
Some very recent information about Y2K:
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001qX5[snip]
The 18 "at risk" federal programs include: child nutrition; food safety inspection; food stamps; supplemental nutrition program for women, infants and children (WIC); student aid; child care; child support enforcement; child welfare; Indian health services; low- income home energy assistance; Medicaid; Medicare; temporary assistance for needy families; public housing; unemployment insurance; retired rail worker benefits; air traffic control system; and maritime safety.
[snip]
Also see...
http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/991122.htm
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 26, 1999.
Other sources of Y2k information
-- CD (not@here.com), November 26, 1999.
Read a rational explanation for making Y2K preparations
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001R UO
Sincerely,
Stan FarynaGot 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.
Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.
-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), November 26, 1999.
For official government reports on the latest Y2K possibilities, and MSNBC reporting, see:
Ebenezer Scrooge, Meet Y2K Bug
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 26, 1999.
I am not anti-government (at least not yet.) I do not believe in UFOs. I have many technical degrees. While exactly what will happen is as clear as mud, I am 100% percent confident that Y2K poses real risks to our health and well-being. I am 100% percent confident that anyone who urges you not to prepare -- a vague term admittedly -- is being reckless. I am also 100% confident that the Fed is spinning Y2K as hard as possible; we are now seeing the full court press. I am about 80% confident that Hoffmeister is part of the Fed spin machine. Do any of the regulars personally know Hoff? Can any of you guys vouch for him? If Y2K turns out as half as bad as some on this forum believe it will, there's gonna be a lot of republicans and democrats who will turn libertarian very quickly.By the way, Linkmeister, nice job of countering Hoff's goofy citations with some good solid posts.
-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 26, 1999.
I am about 90% positive that you are using a real e-mail address.
-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), November 26, 1999.
TB2000 Mission Statement: "This forum is intended for people who are concerned about the impact of the Y2000 problem on their personal lives, and who want to discuss various fallback contingency plans with other like-minded people. It's not intended to provide advice/guidance for solving Y2000 problems within an IT organization. "This is one lurker who is concerned about the impact of unwarranted panic on my personal life.
To the top of Recent Answers.
-- lurker (lurk@long.time), November 26, 1999.
deer huffy, ifn i sez hit playn ewe kuod unnerstnd. ewe har rong. guud bi furnow.Please excuse my occasional mangling of the English language. I am a Sociopath, and don't care enough about you to learn how to write more gooder.
-- manglin (thu.inglsh@lenguage.gooder), November 26, 1999.
Hoff has, over the past 2 years, on c.s.y-2000 and here developed a body of work which would suggest the following:1) His belief that there will NOT be any LARGE problems
2) That this belief is honestly held (unlike some I can think of)
3) That he is an honorable man (my narrow definition. OH WELL)
His credentials within the debate/discussion are hard to assail. He's a SAP Implementer/integrater with a bucket of years of experience, deeper than many but maybe not so Heavily broad as some.
Again, his conclusions asre different from mine.
I DO have a question for him though:
Ref Hershey, why the impact on business??? SAP going in to ** [Company, a hardware manufacturer- -name excluded] caused them to go down and HARD for a month but the customers saw none of this because the integrator brought in hundreds of bodies to make the company go and make the PACKAGE work right.. .. Whussup with Hershey?? You've got access to the geekvine, wha happened??
Chuck
-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 26, 1999.
This is one lurker who is concerned about the impact of unwarranted panic on my personal life.I don't see the public panicking, do you, lurker (lurk@long.time)? The price of toilet paper or tuna isn't going up where I live. I don't think the public will panic unless it sees significant Y2k problems reported on TV. If Y2k does cause significant problems then a well-stocked pantry would not be unwarranted.
In the meantime your panic about the public panicking is unwarranted.
-- TB (2000@Mission.Statement), November 26, 1999.
This forum is for people who already think there might be problems come Y2K. I am not interested in hearing so-called "good news," i.e., that something will be as usual, because I ALREADY KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT AND WHAT TO DO IN NORMAL TIMES. No one is saying you should not believe what you believe, why so defensive?But, at the same time, are you demanding that everyone believe what you do? Are you trying to say that a new person looking into Y2k and it's impacts do not have the right to read ALL information and make up their minds for themselves?
Hoff did not say you should not believe as you do, and more to the point, he directed people who want to decide for themselves to other areas where they can read up on the issue without offending those here who do not want that information posted here.
So where's the problem? Are you afraid people will come searching and go to the sites Hoff listed and make up their own minds without your input and permission? Why do attibute ulterior motives to what he posted when he was up-front and pointed out all of the points you pointed out?
He did not say "do not prepare". He did not say "do not believe" He mearly gave people the option and respect of thinking for themselves, and did not DEMAND as you do that his view is the only one.
I need to read what MIGHT go wrong and how, so I know how to plan contingencies, just like many businesses and institutions are doing (e.g., the Navy War College). The odds are I will never need contingency plans, but I NEED TO KNOW WHAT MIGHT GO WRONG JUST IN CASE.
Do you not need to also know if the water tratment plant that supplies your water has done what YOU consider an appropriate job of attempting to prevent problems due to Y2K? Don't you need to also know what it is you do not have to worry about so you can put more effort into preparing in the areas you believe will have problems?
Do you paternalistic, meddling, self-righteous, interfering pollies understand this simple concept? I don't NEED details of fine weather when the sun is shining, I need to know if there's a chance of rain, so I can put my umbrella in the car. Understand?
Geeze, we get the point about what YOU
want, now how aboult allowing other people to get the information THEY want?Anyone else feel free to get this point across. Good luck. Trust me, your point is clear as glass.
-- A (ray@of.light), November 26, 1999.
What I do not understand is why you feel the need to resort to name calling to try to get your point across.
-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), November 26, 1999.
Gotta agree with Mr. Hoffmeister here. It is better to research ALL sides of the issue before jumping to conclusions.To A Ray of Light:
I don't NEED details of fine weather when the sun is shining, I need to know if there's a chance of rain, so I can put my umbrella in the car. Understand?
The good news you refuse to read WILL tell you if you need the umbrella or not. Would you listen to the weather report if was calling for clear skies and warm weather, or only if it rained?
-- Lurking on the sidelines (Alw@ys lurking.com), November 27, 1999.
The good news you refuse to read WILL tell you if you need the umbrella or not.All of us have heard, over and over, 'good news' about Y2K-- banks, electric utilities, the 9/9/99 drills. It's on TV, in newspapers and in magazines. While I don't believe everything I read on this forum, my education on the Y2k issue would not be balanced if I limited my scope of possible scenarios to only the ones I frequently hear in the mass media.
We all know what the official outlook is--John Koskinen promotes it and all of his comments are posted on this forum. After subtracting the noise on here generated by friction between the 'true believers' in the stay-calm side of things and the 'true believers' in pro- awareness, there is valuable information on this forum that can be difficult to find elsewhere.
I believe that's why most of us call this forum. When you're making decisions on emergency planning for your family, you still need to be aware of what the worst-case scenarios are, even if there is some 'good news' out there.
It's called contingency planning. ('Consequence management' if you're a really 'official' organization.)
Search on +"consequence management" +"year 2000
-- Prepare (but@prepare.early), November 27, 1999.
Ma cherie Cherri --So where's the problem? Are you afraid people will come searching and go to the sites Hoff listed and make up their own minds without your input and permission? Why do attibute ulterior motives to what he posted when he was up-front and pointed out all of the points you pointed out?
A Ray of Light is concerned you haven't grasped yet that people who come to this forum are people who also want to know what the medium and worst case Y2K scenarios are. The best-case scenario promoted by John Koskinen on TV news, in newspapers and magazines is already well known to us.
He did not say "do not prepare". He did not say "do not believe" He mearly gave people the option and respect of thinking for themselves, and did not DEMAND as you do that his view is the only one.
On a forum intended for discussion of various fallback contingency plans, Hoffmeister or other optimists come across as giving the impression that contingency planning is unnecessary. This isn't about a demand -- it's a question of whether optimists realize this forum is intended for those who want to know what could happen, what mighthappen and how to mitigate those potential effects.
Do you not need to also know if the water tratment plant that supplies your water has done what YOU consider an appropriate job of attempting to prevent problems due to Y2K? Don't you need to also know what it is you do not have to worry about so you can put more effort into preparing in the areas you believe will have problems?
Problem is, Cherri, you and Hoffmeister tell us what we don't need to be concerned about, but you never say what Y2K concerns you still have (if any). People come to Time Bomb 2000 (the title should be a clue) to learn more about a variety of scenarios you rarely see discusssed on TV news, newspapers, magazines or a John Koskinen press conference.
Geeze, we get the point about what YOU want, now how aboult allowing other people to get the information THEY want?
You don't get it, Cherri. We all know that information. This forum, imperfect as it is, is a balance to what we see everyday in the mass media.
What I do not understand is why you feel the need to resort to name calling to try to get your point across.
What we on this forum don't understand, my dear Ms. Stewart, is why you're still here if Y2k is going to be the non-event in January you imply it will be. Your viewpoint is the prevailing one at the moment -- the people are calm and the stock market is near 11,000. If this forum had the power to influence public opinion then the stock market would probably be a lot lower than it is right now.
Problems in January will be negligible and as a result there will be no panic -- that seems to be your position. If that's true then your job is done. Have the courage of your convictions and reclaim your life, Cherri.
Y2k isn't about who's right or wrong or who 'won.' It's about a more than three-day hurricane that will hit some areas, skip other areas and create unpredictable effects in still yet others. We want to know all the scenarios, not just the ones John Koskinen is willing to talk about.
You simply don't appreciate hearing possible medium- or worst-case scenarios. There are Web sites intended for those who aren't interesting in discussing various Y2k fallback contingency plans and the name of those sites are Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot and Debunking Y2k. Those sites are intended for the unconcerned who think they know how Y2k will turn out.
Those who are concerned come to this forum to get the rest of the story on the various risks and stakes involved.
-- Prepare (but@prepare.early), November 27, 1999.
See with your own eyes who considers Y2000 to be a credible threat
-- Prepare (but@prepare.early), November 27, 1999.
ChuckDon't have any specific info on Hershey. The SAP "grapevine", if you like, isn't exactly hitting on all cylinders. Usually you hear stuff as people roll to other projects; that just isn't happening at present.
From the snippets I've read, it doesn't sound like a massive system problem, which could be fixed by throwing bodies.
Just a guess, but it might even be a training/user problem. SAP implementations almost invariably involve changing business processes. What seems logical and efficient on paper, in practice may be the exact opposite, especially at first. In some cases, you have people that have been doing the same job, in the same way, for 5, 10, 15 years. They get very efficient. And changing the process just doesn't fly.
One of my first projects was with a large manufacturing company. I was developing a new "RunCard", which was basically the specs, sent to the plant floor, for the "builder".
Over the years, the RunCard had gotten pretty messy. So we designed a new format, logical, readable. Got to the point of running some user acceptance tests, and finally took the new RunCard to the plant floor. The builder just looked at it with a blank stare. Turned out, somewhere over 40% of the builders couldn't read. They were the best builders in the company, and had just learned over the years where to look on the current RunCard for specific information, dimensions, etc. By changing the format, we would have made them completely useless.
Sometimes, you catch obvious things like this. Sometimes, inadequate training and lack of true "user" involvement hits at implementation.
-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), November 27, 1999.
Prepare,That's an impressive "google search" list of the Y2K concerned players... FEMA, SEC, United States Marine Corps, DoD, U.S. Navy, and on and on.
1728 matches for consequence management year 2000.
Speaks volumes.
Hoffy,
Still spinning, I see. (Although I do acknowledge your SAP experience, Ive been consistently unimpressed with your ability, over time, to see outside your narrow box).
Peace. Or puzzle pieces. Humm?
;-D
Cherri,
We have always welcomed the good news here.
Mostly we question the P.R. veracity of it or the intention of the vested interests. And most the time, the good news is so full of holes that the researchers and thinkers posting here are able to penetrate those facades rather quickly, with countering information. Over 260,000 posts on TBY2K (half of which are useful) attest to that.
What we dont welcome is the constant heckling, ridicule, flaming, and most recently spamming and DOS denial of service attacks launched from *some*... not all... of the DeBunker posters... who... as we speak... are once again trying to get this bboard closed down because its hosted on MIT equipment. Real uninvolved, fair- minded, open balanced people you defend and run with, huh? NOT.
Such is life.
Water under the bridge. (Along with a few more trolls.)
At any rate...
People, new or old to Y2K, can find all the information they care to on the net, should they search for it. Problems has always been... whats real and whats illusion?
Well begin to find out in 34 days. (But probably wont know until April or June of 2000).
In the meantime... keep those preparation seat belts fastened... in case its a wild ride.
It may well be a...1-to-10 simultaneously... both locally... and on a global scale... but Who knows where? as Koskinen, et. al., says. Feeling lucky? Or not?
Preparation is just prudent.
Diane, still a 5-ish sorta
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 27, 1999.