Source: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Nervous consumers may be stocking up on water and non-perishables amid fears that the Year 2000 technology problem will disrupt life, but much of the computer industry appears to be greeting the new millennium with yawns as the countdown draws to a close.
Despite concerns that many companies would significantly slow spending on the installation and upgrading of systems ahead of the new year, recent reports have found that sales continue at a rapid clip and could accelerate after executives review their budgets and needs in January.
Industry officials at the giant Comdex computer show here this past week were barely giving Y2K a second thought, focusing instead on the rise of the Internet as a commerce and services market and how to beat their competitors in grabbing a larger share of the pie.
[Sun Microsystems] Chairman Scott McNealy made one of the few mentions of Y2K in his keynote speech, but only in taking a swipe at software rival [Microsoft Corp.] and its long-delayed release of Windows 2000.
"Everybody is fearful of Y2K," McNealy said. "But W2K and O2K --Windows 2000 and Office 2000 -- will cause a lot more problems."
Companies such as IBM have said sales of more profitable database servers could slow as customers cut back on orders to focus on the Y2K problem, in which older computers have software that would recognize the turn of the century as 1900 instead of 2000.
But [Intel Corp.] executives said in late October they saw no signs of that, and [Dell Computer Corp.] said last week that consumer and company demand remains strong and should offset any Y2K slowdown.
John Chambers, chief executive of Internet network equipment company [Cisco Systems], noted at the trade show that computer sales are consistently beating even the most optimistic analyst expectations as more consumers and businesses log onto the Web for business and entertainment.
Merrill Lynch technology analyst Steven Milunovich released a report last week that appeared to acknowledge as much. He said a survey of corporate buyers of server hardware and other personal computer hardware found little change in estimates for demand.
"We continue to find 15% to 20% of users expecting to slow purchases in the fourth quarter," Milunovich said. "The top vendors seem to be surviving fine." The government this week also estimated Y2K will cost the nation less than half what most experts had predicted.
The Commerce Department said industry and government agencies will spend a total $100 billion between 1995 and 2001 to fix the Y2K problem.
Industry officials here said many large companies mostly spent the money on purchasing new computer systems or upgrading software. They have long since completed that task and were slowing purchases more for budgetary reasons, officials said.
"If I was flying on an airplane in Russia, I might be a little bit worried," said Mark Leach, a consultant for the Steamboat Springs sports entertainment chain. "But people here really don't find it to be much of a problem."
He suggested that conference-goers also were showing a lack of enthusiasm with their first glance at Microsoft's Windows 2000, which will begin shipping next year, and other computer software.
"We haven't really had a stall on buying hardware; what
we've really had is a stall on development of new
(software) technology as the computer industry focused
on Y2K," Leach said. "I expect that what we're really
going to see next year is a spurt in development of
innovative new products as we get Y2K behind us."
-- Captain Truth (captain@truth.com), November 24, 1999