I read anedotial reports of shortages and higher food prices, but I just don't see it at Sam's Club, Costco or Safeway. They are always full with back-stock piled high. In addition, wholesale grain prices, (a VERY good indicator of future retail prices) remain very low and with little change over the last year.

All the stores that I shop show the same price ranges as usual, the national Consumer Price Index is steady, the Azure Standard prices on 50# sacks of grains, flour and oatmeal are steady with delivery still on-schedule.

Finally, if I "thought" some product had recently had a dramatic increase in cost, I'd ask the store manager why. It could be as simple as a crop failure in the industry, like oranges and lettuce do all the time - simply some rain in California, etc.

It seems a little paranoid to conjecture that there is a meaning in a price increase of some spice jar in one store when it may be nothing but a mistake in pricing by some overworked clerk. My grandfather used to say that if it walked like a duck, looked like a duck and pooped like a duck, it probably was a duck.

So, here's the real question and a caveat:

First, I'm NOT trolling. I'm not looking for a fight. I'm serious about my question. I assume we all want real info, not just the scare-stories that support our previously-formed opinions.

Is there anyone working for a food WHOLESALER out there that can substanciate the daily rumors that "it's beginning"?

I'd love to see a price list posted showing those huge increases and shortages that we read about daily on TB2000, 'cuz I just don't see it.

Grain Prices: www.treecity.com/dleas/dleas16a.html

Thanks,

-- Randers (coyotecanyon@hotmail.com), November 24, 1999

Answers

Mr. Randers, this is the sort of logical question that will get you banned from this WEb site. Remember, only the Doomer point of view is allowed here - we will brook no dissent and no opposition to our religious beliefs.

-- Mr. Funny (mr@funny.com), November 24, 1999.

If all your doing is burying your head in a few items like an ostrich, how in the heck would you notice what is happening out there? You'll be standing there at an oatmeal shelf failing to notice the store collapsed down around yourself.

It's about as good as the guy buying an off brand of nuts as if its price represented Planters pricing. Or the one buying the teeny pull top canned vegetables at .33 as "righteousness" when everyone else was buying 14-16 oz sizes for.33 on sale at Super K-Mart.

Troll? Or do some of you really have this severe of a problem with reading comprehension? There is something wrong with some of the posters on this forum.

Funny, I don't recall myself reporting a container of oatmeal tripled in the night.

I'll be honest, I am at the breaking point, trying to chat or discuss things with people on this forum due to their acute difficulties with reading comprehension.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 24, 1999.

Paula,

A gal should always watch out for that 'off brand of nuts'.

-- flora (***@__._), November 24, 1999.

LOL Flora, I've a few cans of the off brand Toffee Nuts myself. One always gets what one pays for though and I find most of the toffee off the nuts and sitting at the bottom of the can.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 24, 1999.

I can only speak for my area (eastern Iowa). No food shortages. No price rises - er uh, except gasoline. No infrastructure disruptions.

All is normal and I pray it stays that way.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 24, 1999.

Paula, Are you always so agressive with people who disagree with you? Are you like this in public, face-to-face, or only on the net?

I didn't write anything about oatmeal prices and I never singled you out. Please stop being so rude & stop name-calling, it's childish

I'm a guy who built a 6000 square-foot remote home on 200 acres, entirely off the grid with goats, heirloom fruit trees, a diesel generator, water-well, 5000 gallon water tank and I'm looking out after my wife, kids and elderly mother. We chose this life style 6 years ago. I'm pretty well prepared.

Now, back to my original question:

Anyone working in the wholesale food business with access to pricing and availabily info?...

Thanks,

PS: "I am not an Ostrich, I am a man!"

-- Randers (coyotecanyon@hotmail.com), November 24, 1999.

Haven't seen any problems yet, don't really expect to see any until just before Christmas. It's just not imminent enough for Joe to worry about yet.

Er, I was chatting with a friend last night who gave me some GOOD news about food distribution. As he's now reading this forum, I'll let him expand or not as he chooses. I'm really sorry that I can't give details (and it would still be anecdotal anyway). :(

But, for what it's worth I'm not so worried about a pre-rollover rush any more. I've been convinced that the supermarkets are geared for it.

BTW, I queried K-Mart on Monday about those mysterious trailers in their car parks. No response yet.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 24, 1999.

Paula,

I think Colin may be trying to telegraph a message to you.

"...mysterious trailers in their car parks"

could mean that folks should be on the lookout for 'mysterious cars in their trailer parks'.

Might want to cool it on the cheap holiday jewelry today. How 'bout some love beads instead?

-- flora (***@__._), November 24, 1999.

No there are no shortages of food in my area, New York. There is no shortage of Generators, Lamps, lamp oil, cereal, canned goods, dry goods, or fresh fruits and vegtables. Lately, I have not noticed the usual screwups in the ordering system either. Lost leader sales items always seem to be gone by the afternoon but that always happens around here. It is funny to see stacks of canned food labled as y2k stock up items.

Oh yes there was one item which was running low this week. The turkey bin was reduced to only the bottom layer of 20 pounders. People seem to be stocking up(or hoarding)all of the sudden. What is up with that?

Have a good Thursday.

-- Ned P Zimmer (ned@nednet.com), November 24, 1999.

I think the following story from Reuters is an indication:

Tuesday November 23, 2:12 pm Eastern Time Hormel profits rise, some signs of Y2K stockpiling AUSTIN, Minn., Nov 23 (Reuters) - Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE:HRL - news) said Tuesday its fiscal fourth quarter profits rose 32 percent from a year ago, topping Wall Street forecasts, amid strong sales of Spam luncheon meat, Dinty Moore stew and other products.

The meat processor also said consumers may be stockpiling its canned meat products ahead of Jan. 1, 2000, because of concerns that Y2K computer problems may disrupt the food supply. Older computers and their software often used just two digits for the year in dates, raising the possibility of failures or confusion with 1900 when the year 2000 arrives.

Hormel said it earned $59.7 million, or 82 cents per share, in the fourth quarter ended Oct. 30, up from last year's $45.2 million, or 61 cents per share. The latest quarter covers a 13-week period, while last year's fourth quarter included 14 weeks. Net sales were $950.8 million, compared with $912.0 million in the same period a year ago.

Analysts had been forecasting a fourth-quarter profit of 76 cents per share.

The stock gained 3/16 to 41-1/4 in morning New York Stock Exchange trading.

``Fourth quarter sales of Hormel Foods non-perishable items have been particularly strong due to aggressive marketing programs, weather related stockpiling and perhaps some Y2K-related pantry inventory build-up,'' the company said.

``Tonnage growth was achieved in all major core brands -- Spam luncheon meat, Dinty Moore stew, Mary Kitchen hash, Hormel chunk ham and chunk chicken and Hormel chili,'' it said.

George Dahlman, a food industry analyst with U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray, said the quarter was strong, but the fiscal first quarter could see some weakness if consumers who stockpiled food are left with full pantries.

``We still have a nagging worry about how much of this (strength) is Y2K,'' Dahlman said. ``I don't think it was more than a couple of pennies (per share), but we're dragging the first quarter down a little bit just to be on the safe side.''

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991123/0e.html

-- TA (sea_spur@yahoo.com), November 24, 1999.

The beginning of this year I was paying 82 cents per gallon for unleaded regular gas, today at the same station I am paying $1.19 per gallon. This amounts to a 45% increase in what is considered a core commodity.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), November 24, 1999.

Randers,

Hello! Execellent question. I've not seen any price-gouging here in Central Ohio yet, and not much bare shelf-space either (except for pie-making supplies and the "Butterballs" are getting sparse).

I'm wondering on the frequency of re-stocking though and if the retailer's "stockpile" is being dipped into. Perhaps looking at 3Q reports might shed a little light? Also wondering if there are links (U.S. Customs?) tracking how much imported food we (U.S.) have been receiving lately.

Paula,

Hello. Please lay off this guy - he's asking an honest, valid question, and doesn't seem to be attacking you personally. If trolls would attack you, believe me, I'd back you up.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), November 24, 1999.

Bought a thousand+ pounds of grain from Azure Standard in May, just got 500 more pounds last week at no increase in prices.My local Costco and Walmart are loaded with X-mas shoppers and stacked to the ceilings with goods. Have noticed nothing sold out. On the other hand the price of propane has jumped from 99 cents a gallon to 110 then 125 and now 175 cents in some places locally. My local firewood guy says he's never had so many orders and two local woodstove outlets are 6 and 8 weeks behind in filling orders. Both the firewood guy and the clerks at the woodstove shops say their increase in orders is Y2k driven.

-- Ralph Kramden (and@AwayWeGo.com), November 24, 1999.

This one is for Colin and his friend!

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001qfw

Care to comment on your friend's info?

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), November 24, 1999.

Deluth News, 11/24/1999:

Grocers seeing Y2K stockpiling

37 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), November 24, 1999.

nothere,

Saw it.

Just 'be sure to wear some flowers in your hair', 'kay?

-- flora (***@__._), November 24, 1999.

Put Paula into the Yourdon Mudwrestling Pit, her sleek body oiled, her fighting prowress to be challenged!! Let the amazon battle all who dare cross her, her pent-up furies unleashing mercilessly!!! Her beauty enhanced by her impassioned embracing!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 24, 1999.

Paula/chowbabe wrote:

"If all your doing is burying your head in a few items like an ostrich, how in the heck would you notice what is happening out there? You'll be standing there at an oatmeal shelf failing to notice the store collapsed down around yourself.

It's about as good as the guy buying an off brand of nuts as if its price represented Planters pricing. Or the one buying the teeny pull top canned vegetables at .33 as "righteousness" when everyone else was buying 14-16 oz sizes for.33 on sale at Super K-Mart.

Troll? Or do some of you really have this severe of a problem with reading comprehension? There is something wrong with some of the posters on this forum.

Funny, I don't recall myself reporting a container of oatmeal tripled in the night.

I'll be honest, I am at the breaking point, trying to chat or discuss things with people on this forum due to their acute difficulties with reading comprehension. "

-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-

Paula,

My reading comprehension must be way off because I sure as heck don't understand what point you're trying to make. There was no reference to you in the original post or any comment about the price of oatmeal tripling. Maybe that's why you're upset?

You know, some of your posts have had valid points, but lately, a lot of your comments come across as really rude and overly aggressive. It takes away from your message. At least that's the effect it has had on me.

As far as, "There is something wrong with some of the posters on this forum"-- I guess that is one area we can agree on. And it does seem that from the tone of several of your posts lately that you may indeed be at your breaking point.

Of course, it could just be my reading comprehension lacking again.

-- murphy (notreal@this.time), November 24, 1999.

Good availability in Vero Beach, FL--good prices.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 24, 1999.

Thanks everyone for their observations (so far).

My conclusion, based on what's posted to date suggests that any shortages/price increases so far are pretty-much due to our preps (cord wood, woodstoves, propane)and limited to industries with little capacity to increase production.

Still hoping for a food distributor employee with a price list.

-- Randers (coyotecanyon@hotmail.com), November 24, 1999.

I for see prices in January dropping to ZERO when the looting begins. Wholesale prices will lack wise drop to nothing due to cargo hijacking.

-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), November 24, 1999.

I am a farmer and I have never seen our prices so low for our commoditys. Meaning that we have over produced so much that we can hardly give it away. The storage bins are so full that they are bursting their seams. Have to stack the corn and wheat on the ground in big piles.

One problem we have is too much imports coming in form foreign countries. To give you an idea in 1996 we had a shortage of wheat and corn the price then ----- wheat $ 7 per bushel now it is $2 corn was $9 to $10 per hundred wt. Now it is near $4. So our cost of production is more then what we can sell it for. So may for us farmers have to come to town to get a job and try one more year, hoping thing will change.

But when I go to the store and buy any thing, I do not see the prices coming down to reflect what is going for on the farms.

I've griped enough now. But the way I see it is we are a long ways form any real shortage, not saying there is no concocted shortages.

Good luck to us all.

-- Lyle (eileen@idacom.net), November 24, 1999.

No shortages is South Central Pennsylvania. Gas prices are a little crazy, though. I was paying 87.9 back in February and now is just went up to $1.26. Thats a 69% increase with no signs of it dropping.

-- Sha-Kahn (prepare@home.com), November 24, 1999.

"I'll be honest, I am at the breaking point, trying to chat or discuss things with people on this forum due to their acute difficulties with reading comprehension."

could that be because you don't chat or discuss.....you make absurd remarks, you're extremely rude to people, you jump into threads when you have no concept of the topic,and you arrogantly assert that the whole world is wrong but chowbabe is right.

you're at a breaking point? take two months off and come back about february 1.

-- scat (tired@of.paula), November 24, 1999.

I saw two reports last week that indicated that inflation may return the last week of the year as people attempt to prepare to y2k. I believe they meant there will price gouging on item that become scare (call it supply and demand). I have not seen any big price jumps in Eastern Iowa yet except in gasoline.

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), November 24, 1999.

No shortages in my area. None.

I still say Paula is one taco short of a value meal.

-- (Polly@troll.com), November 24, 1999.

In my area (Pacific NW) I have noticed no particular shortages or price increases on food or basics, with one exception---bottled water. Until about 8 weeks ago the store shelves were always stocked with the 1 and 2.5 gallon bottles of water in several brands. Now, it seems no matter what day of the week or what time I look, there are only a few bottles left on the shelf. More than once I have found the shelves entirely empty of water.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), November 24, 1999.

Outside of DC in Virginia, we have plenty of everything overflowing the shelves and heaped up in baskets in the aisles of Super Fresh, Shoppers Food Warehouse, Safeway and Giant, as well as at Price/Costco. Also, in CVS and Rite Aid, as well as KMart, food shelves full. The prices are still good, although there has been a slight rise in the last two months in SOME products, i.e., canned carrots went from .34 to .38 and canned new potatoes from .38 to .43. But still lots and lots of "3-for" sales and other GREAT specials.

On Saturday two of us GIs made our monthly "pilgrimage" an hour and a half's drive to farm country to a Mennonite Country Market, a lovely store with fresh, clean products and courteous service. They have come to know us, and they told me Saturday that the reason they were no longer carrying powdered egg and would soon cease the wheat in the white 5-gal. buckets was because "early in the year we had lots of people preparing for Y2K and we ordered all these items they wanted. Then the demand just died, and we were stuck with 50 lb. bags of items, like powdered egg. Now there is no more demand for these things."

Paula, your posts DO seem to be growing more and more frequent and frantic. Try to let go of some of the intensity, take a break from the forum, and get some pleasure from the remaining days, all the while continuing to prepare.

You are indeed fortunate if your worst problem is the high prices where you shop...some of us cannot even finish necessary preps because we lack the means with which to do so. WE have real worries!

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), November 24, 1999.

Trolls & etc...

Take it easy on Paula (not too mention the rest of the board). More and more tempers will flare the closer we get to New Years. Quiet down and let's ride this one out together.

Anxiety is normal, how we deal with it is what will "make or break" us.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), November 24, 1999.

Not on Kaua'i, Molokai, or O'ahu.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 24, 1999.

Excuse Me-----

scat, while I agreed with your very good post - every word - there is already one Scat on this forum & most would probably agree one is enough. I've had the handle since last April. Could you...er,...be somebody else please?

Thanks.

-- Scat (sgcatique@webtv.net), November 24, 1999.

Or, to put it another way: Will the wrong Scat scat?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 24, 1999.

Responding to the original poster (maybe we can get the thread back on track) I would agree that there are no real signs of food shortages in the regular grocery stores (any reports of increased demand from bulk food stores in Minnesota could be attributed to survival-types like some of us topping off at the last minute) When I see empty store shelves at a store like Safeway I'll know that the panic has arrived. I'm not expecting widespread shortages until the last few days of the year when everyone tries to stock up at the last minute. Reuters has released the results of a poll that many plan to stock up, and I expect them to do this at the last minute and not in response to something like the goofy "Y2K" movie.

I did hear from someone I know working for one of the grocery store chains that bottled water sales are exceeding their expectations. But I've still been able to find it when shopping at that chain.

I think that if you look hard enough you can find some signs, but then I think that many of us on this forum pass what we see through Y2k filters and what comes out meets our expectations.

I was in Sam's club last night, and saw plenty on the shelves including 50# bags of rice. While waiting in line to check out, I looked around at others grocery carts and it didn't appear that anyone in my sample was stocking up.

Mikey2k

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), November 24, 1999.

No shortages in north central PA but there was a strange atmosphere at the checkout. I bought 2 canned hams, 6 corned beef and 4 spam along with weekly groceries. There was no attention paid last spring when I would get 12 salmon and 12 little tins of ham etc. But there sure is now. Pam

-- Pamela (jpjgood@penn.com), November 24, 1999.

No shortages of anything or price increases in SE South Dakota. Lots of hot specials still. Price of regular unleaded holding steady at 1.26 (1.24 for ethanol). Grain elevators are over-flowing (Parker, SD has a pile of corn that completely fills the infield of their race track). Just about every elevator has a similar pile.

No one batted an eye at the ten cans (40 oz) of sweet potatoes in my cart (on sale, 1.28)--lots of people around here shop that way routinely.

-- Sam Mcgee (weissacre@gwtc.net), November 25, 1999.

Quick followup re. the "no stockpiling" link. I'm not kidding myself about what will happen post rollover, just the likelihood of a pre- rollover panic due to empty shelves. The figure I heard was (tap-tap- tap) a 228% increase in normal stocks in the week leading up to Christmas, which should - I hope - be enough to keep the wool over Joe's eyes.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 25, 1999.