Media Sends Mixed Messages on Y2K

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Media Sends Mixed Messages on Y2K

From the USC Annenberg School for Communication Online Journalism Review

By Stephen D. O'Leary, OJR Columnist (dated Nov. 20)

As America gears up for the holiday season and approaches the final countdown to the year 2000, early projections of media-induced Y2K panic appear to have been inaccurate. Evidence indicates that millennial fear is nowhere near the level that many anticipated a year ago, when numerous media outlets featured stories about Y2K survivalism, and catastrophic scenarios--whether caused by computer failure or the ripple effects of fear--for a time seemed reasonable.

Y2K doomsayers have clearly lost ground in recent months. A constant drumbeat of optimistic statements by public officials, such as President Clinton's November 10 press conference announcing the release of the White House Y2K committee's final report, seems to have decisively tilted public opinion against alarmism. In a Reuters poll released November 18, 53 percent of respondents indicated they were "not concerned" about the potential effect of Year 2000, while 41 percent said they were "somewhat concerned." Fewer than 20% of those polled expected Y2K to cause any significant breakdown in government or commercial services.

Other signs that the doomsday rhetoric is abating include:

The signs, then, seem to show that millennial fever is decreasing, and we applaud the efforts of those distributing Y2K aspirin in the form of non-alarmist information. But it's not clear that the patient is all better. Interestingly, A Harris Poll found that many consumers are hedging their bets: 24% of shoppers planned to stock up on at least some consumer goods such as water and food in anticipation of Y2K-related problems. In the same vein, a Reuters poll released November 18 indicates that "Nearly three in five Americans plan to hold extra cash for fear of the 2000 computer bug."

A logical conclusion from this plethora of sometimes contradictory evidence would be that though the majority of Americans are persuaded that they are not at risk for significant Y2K impacts, the consensus that Y2K will be no more than a "bump in the road" is rather thin. The experts who now state with confidence that the Y2K problem has been beaten have succeeded in getting their message across, but the public projection of confidence carries some risks. Given the immense scope of the technical problems to be solved, it seems rather irresponsible to congratulate ourselves for fixing our systems even before testing has been completed in all sectors. Mishaps, even major ones, could still occur; and they wouldn't have to be very serious to contradict the optimistic happy talk from public officials. If we see ANY major problems developing on or after January 1, the doomsday and conspiracy theorists will suddenly appear a lot more credible.

A quick glance at the most recent report card issued by Congressional Y2K watchdog Rep. Stephen Horn (D-California) gives us ample cause for concern that failures could still occur in crucial government systems. As of September 12, many programs were still not ready for Y2K, and some of the most important ones (in terms of public confidence and vital services, such as air traffic control, unemployment insurance, and even mail service) are not projected to be ready until the last month of the year. That's cutting it awfully close for comfort.

If the apocalyptic evangelists such as Gary North, who stubbornly maintain that Y2K will bring about the fall of Western civilization, have not managed to convince the public, then perhaps the entertainment industry may yet jolt the national complacency about Y2K. NBC's broadcast on November 21 of the "Y2K" panic thriller movie elicited many expressions of concern from the commercial sector and from public officials. It is too soon to tell whether the film was able to cause an upsurge in doomsday fears, but as we monitor the public responses to Y2K in the coming weeks, we should not be too sanguine about the prospects for a panic-free millennium.

Next week: A report on the FBI's "Project Megiddo," which anticipates violence associated with the year 2000 transition.

-- (pshannon@inch.com), November 23, 1999

Answers

If the "constant drumbeat of optimistic statements" has prevented "alarmism", it is only because of the constant incompetence of journalists who ignore the big picture of government contingency plans:

generators, table-top exercises, mobilization of ham operators, diesel fuel consolidation, metropolis bunkers, thousands of extra stop signs for intersections, school room shelters ... a mention here, a mention there, then the abyss.

Connect-the-dots should be required Journalism 101.

Been there. Done that. It is not a herd activity.

-- (normally@ease.notnow), November 24, 1999.


"DO AS I SAY, NOT AS I DO."

REMEMBER ALSO THOSE SOLAR PANELS INSTALLED INSIDE THE PENTAGON PERIMETER.

REMEMBER THAT YOU HAVE A PATHOLOGICAL LIAR FOR A PRESIDENT.

NOW CONNECT THOSE DOTS.

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), November 24, 1999.


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