http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Computech/Issues/morris9947.htm

Y2K -- The Real Truth Is in the Middle By J.R. Morris November 23, 1999 It is no wonder people are confused about the outcome of the Y2K Problem. Media reports concentrate only upon the extremes, either calling Y2K a doomsday meltdown or a hyped-up non-event -- as if there were no middle ground in between. But the real truth is found in that middle ground between meltdown and bump in the road -- almost exactly in the middle.

Of course there will be computer failures -- they're already happening. And they will likely increase -- to a level uncomfortable for many of us. But that does not necessarily translate into a meltdown, because many repairs have been made, and most (but not all) big companies have serious contingency plans. Unfortunately, not all of the larger companies will completely finish all their repairs, and the small- medium-sized companies are even further behind.

The latest (September 1999) survey results from Cap Gemini America, polling 144 major U.S. corporations and 17 government agencies, tell us that 82% of these large organizations have already experienced a Year 2000 problem. A telltale 95% of the problems created financial mis-calculations. 6% of those organizations now do not expect to have even as much as 76% of their computer code completely repaired and tested. And only 56% expect to be "fully tested and compliant" by year end -- 44% do not.

These statistics tell us that Y2K problems are real, and that there will likely be many failures -- but not necessarily in the areas most people worry about, and not all at the stroke of midnight January 1, 2000. Historically speaking, more failures occur in new computer systems and in recently repaired computer systems than at any other times. Most U.S. businesses which have addressed the Y2K problem (many have not) have either repaired existing systems or installed new systems.

We also know that failures are more likely in accounting and data systems than they are in generating plants or assembly lines, and failures in data systems are not obvious the instant they occur, as they are in physical processes.

The above statistics also remind us that failures do not automatically translate into complete organization failures -- they simply mean that something is failing in the organization. While it is true that failures are common in most organizations, the number of failures related to Y2K will probably be much greater than normal, and will be in addition to the normal failures. But it is prudent and logical to look at these failures and rates of failure in a broad and balanced perspective.

As serious as Y2K is, it is no longer about the likely meltdown of the electric grid, or banking and telephone system disasters -- at least not in the United States. Two years ago the meltdown theories may have had merit, because very little had been done by most businesses to prepare for Y2K. But substantial progress has been made in the most critical areas, and extensive contingency plans are in place. Electric power, banking and telephone companies are working together within their industries to assure the integrity of the electric grid, the banking industry, and telephone interconnections. And they will have their best people on duty, watching their systems carefully when the rollover to 2000 occurs. Even a few government agencies are fairly well prepared, such as Social Security and the Federal Aviation Administration.

Problems may still occur, even in these well prepared areas, but the chances for widespread, simultaneous and serious problems in these areas have been reduced. Most difficulties in these areas should be relatively short lived, and back up plans should allow most to keep functioning, even if at a reduced level. But that same level of comfort does not necessarily exist in all other areas.

The greatest potential for failures, at least in the U.S., exists in other industries, and in smaller companies, because less preparation has occurred, making them more vulnerable to Y2K problems. The level of Year 2000 readiness tapers off in other industries, smaller companies and government services. Readiness doesn't drop like a rock for all other industries, but it tapers down very steeply -- down to zero for millions of small- and medium-sized businesses.

Since potential problems are known to exist in virtually every computer system in the world, any level of readiness below 100% makes an organization or an individual naturally more vulnerable to potential problems. Not everyone will be prepared well enough to prevent some fairly significant problems. Relatively few of the 10 million small businesses in the United States have taken Y2K seriously. Millions of them have done absolutely nothing to prepare.

While the totally unprepared companies are at the bottom of the preparedness ladder, there are hundreds of steps in between -- each occupied by many companies. They are suppliers to some and customers of others. They are an integral part of our economy -- collectively they are the largest part of our economy. Small, medium and large problems in millions of companies means that disruptions likely WILL occur.

Significant problems exist in other countries as well, and most U.S. businesses and individual consumers can be impacted to one degree or another by international problems. The U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem "100 Day Report" points out numerous areas for concern, the U.S. State Department has issued travel advisories, and the C.I.A. and Department of Defense have expressed concerns about problems in foreign countries. The truth about the international situation is similar to the truth about the U.S. domestic situation -- it is in the middle of the scale. Some countries, and the various governments and businesses in those countries, are better prepared than others. No single answer exists, because there are so many players and so many interdependent relationships. Just as within the U.S., some things will work better than others, but some things will not work well enough to avoid problems.

Likely Impacts

Probably the biggest misinterpretation about Y2K, beyond the "all pass or all fail" theory, is in defining the most likely impacts. The most common type of failure will likely be in accounting and transaction processing systems instead of operating systems such as power plants or assembly lines.

The advantages of consistency, cooperation, contingency planning and government regulation in electric power, telephones and banking, do not exist for most businesses, and particularly not for the millions of accounting and data processing systems in businesses across the United States. Accounting systems are far more vulnerable to Y2K problems for three reasons.

The accounting systems were the first, and are among the oldest, computer hardware and software in most organizations -- and therefore more prone to Y2K program confusion about whether year 00 means 2000, 1900, or nothing at all to the computer program.

The number of computers used for accounting type transactions is much greater than the number of computers controlling a physical process. Accounting computers record and process data for sales, billing, ordering, inventories, scheduling, deliveries, purchasing, receiving, interest calculations, investments, depreciation, payrolls and numerous tax transactions.

Virtually every accounting transaction and data record has one or more date relationships, whereas most manufacturing and process controls, and embedded chip systems have few if any date relationships.

Transactions may include current date, effective dates, expiration dates, number of days' service or interest earned, etc. The data stored by computers has date relationships in entry, sorting, storage, retrieval, calculations, and reporting. Trillions of data records exist, all with dates included for virtually every entry. Even the systems operating correctly beyond Year 2000 will need to look back across the 99-2000 time barrier to access this prior data, and will find it full of two-digit years.

Accounting and data errors are often not as obvious as errors in a manufacturing assembly line, or a power grid. Accounting errors may go undetected for days, weeks or months -- compounding and accumulating huge volumes of incorrect data. Errors may not be discovered until you receive an incorrect bill -- and then only if you notice them. Correcting errors often requires much time and huge volumes of work.

Middle of the Road

Y2K is not about the complete success or failure of all the players. It is about the potential for millions of small- and medium-sized partial failures. It is about confused records and improper billings more than it is about records simply disappearing. It is about manufacturing reductions and transportation delays more than it is about total failure. But these problems can stack up, and will still affect us in many different ways. Deliveries gone astray or delayed, billing errors, and shortages of certain goods and services are a far cry from a total meltdown, but they are also far more serious than a mere bump in the road.

The real Y2K truth is that numerous problems will have different effects in more ways than we can count. Some problems will be small, some medium, and some large in geographic area, in seriousness, in cost to repair, and in time required to repair.

Some people will experience fewer problems than others, depending upon where they live, who they patronize, how well prepared they are, and numerous other factors, including pure luck.

Some companies may be ready internally, but adversely affected by supplier problems, while other companies may see reduced sales because their customers have problems.

Some things will work just fine, others partially, and a few not at all.

Some businesses are better prepared than others, repairing problems and making extensive contingency plans. Some people and businesses simply do a better job than others, on any subject. For them, even significant problems may not close their doors. Others will have done little or nothing to prepare, or their Y2K projects were poorly executed, and small problems may cost them dearly in money, time and effort.

Some people will be better prepared than others because they took the situation seriously and did something to prepare themselves. Even if they only prepared themselves mentally they will be far ahead of the people who did nothing, or waited until the last minute to prepare. If problems develop in our businesses or infrastructure, before or after Year 2000 arrives, these unprepared people may panic, which could create problems in our society even worse than the actual computer problems.

Keep a Broad Perspective

Most people, including the media, computer experts and business people, misinterpret Y2K because their thinking is too narrow. But the Y2K situation is a big picture which exists in numerous different ways.

Some people see the failure of one computer and say, "If THAT fails, it must mean ALL the others are going to fail. There's your proof. End of the world as we know it." Others still deny that a problem even exists, or they see one system functioning properly and flatly state, "Nothing will fail here -- we'll have business as usual on January 1, 2000." These people may be eternal pessimists or optimists in other things, or they may make these "giant leaps" into negativity or positive territory because they do not see the big picture.

The Y2K story bounces from good news one week to bad news the next, and back to good news the week after that. We hear that the Federal Government is 94% ready, but only 7 out of 43 "high impact" government services are ready. One week we hear that failure rates are growing, and companies are missing deadlines. Then we hear that some company or government agency has finished their work, so we should now rest easy.

But Y2K is such a large problem, no single success or failure has a large enough effect to change the overall problem in a significant way, positively or negatively. General Motors in its entirety is less than 1% of the total picture. The U.S. Government in its entirety may be more than 1%, but not by much. My personal computer may be more than 1% of my total Y2K exposure, but again, not by much.

As a Human, My Greatest Exposure Comes from All the People I Deal With

Y2K is such a difficult problem to grasp, partly because every company and every person in our society depends upon so many others for the goods and services we enjoy. Fifty or one hundred computers may be involved in manufacturing, transporting, warehousing, wholesaling, inventorying, accounting for and retailing a product you buy every week.

The average person in this country deals directly with 20 or 21 computers or computer dependent organizations in the conduct of their daily lives, such as electric, telephone, gas, groceries, gasoline, retailers, banks, credit cards, and numerous government, licensing, and insurance computers. If you add up all the computers those organizations depend upon, the total grows exponentially into the thousands very quickly.

A small rate of failures can be worked around in some cases, and in other cases the same percentage of failure brings the availability of a particular product to a screeching halt long before it arrives into your hands. But in most cases, the accumulated failures will result in slowdowns, shortages or reduced availability, or reductions in product quality. Errors in accounts, bills and records will continue to show up long after the production and transportation problems have been fixed or worked around. The accumulated time we spend on hold waiting for a customer service representative to straighten out our billing problems may contribute significantly to the "Aging of America."

This is the type and level of problems we should really expect from Y2K. It is far from the end of the world, but neither is it a picnic. The real truth about Y2K is in the middle of the scale.

Personal Strategies

Fortunately for individuals and small businesses, the job of preparing for Y2K is much simpler than the needed preparations in most large- or medium-sized businesses. Individuals and small businesses should borrow ideas from larger businesses, but scale down the steps needed. Simply stated, any business or individual should first determine where they may be exposed, and divide that analysis into three broad categories:

Electronic or computer equipment and programs which can be checked, repaired and/or replaced.

Accounting, asset, liability and identity records for which hard-copy backup records can be obtained.

Goods and services which are absolutely essential, and for which contingency plans should be developed and back-up supplies should be stockpiled.

Personal computers have a number of exposures to Y2K, but they are fairly easy to identify and correct. Commercial programs are available at computer, office supply or electronics stores. These programs check the hardware, operating system, software, and some even check data files. Manufacturers are now posting websites telling consumers which products may have Y2K issues. Most programs, including most Microsoft operating systems, have date-handling assumptions you should learn about, because they may be different assumptions than other software you have, leading to eventual errors.

After checking Personal Computers and other computer devices, individuals should then determine what exposures they have to records in other people's computers. The greatest potential for errors, on a personal level, is in accounts, records and bills. Having hard copy records of all transactions could save you time, effort and stress in correcting any errors which do occur. Organize your records so you can compare prior month statements to current billings. Check every transaction for correct computations, assure that balances are carried forward correctly, and immediately question any error. Accounting errors may predict future service or product availability problems with a particular supplier, so if accounting problems occur, be watchful for other types of problems from that same supplier.

Contingency Planning

The basic needs of any person are water, food, shelter, supplies and equipment which varies from person to person. Although the chances for Y2K failures in these areas may be smaller than the chances for accounting failures, any failures in basic needs are more critical if they do occur. Contingency plans are appropriate because of this importance, rather than because of a high percentage probability of failure.

Include such items as clothing, medical items, hygiene needs, cooking or food preparation utensils, flashlights, camping lanterns or candles, battery operated radios, and other supplies. Federal guidelines (FEMA) and the American Red Cross recommend Y2K supplies for a few days to a week. Miami-Dade County, Florida officials recommend two weeks, while Los Angeles officials recommend one week based upon their disaster planning experience with hurricanes and earthquakes. Others suggest longer periods, sometimes measured in months. As usual with Y2K, the best plan is most likely in the middle -perhaps one or two weeks for most people in most areas of the country.

Make your own decision based upon where you live and what other criteria are important to you, such as weather, family size, and other risks which exist in your area, such as earthquakes, tornadoes, ice storms, hurricanes, etc. Incorporate items which you already use and purchase on a regular basis -- the same kinds of canned and dried, non-perishable foods and other supplies you normally consume. If not needed for contingency planning purposes, you can and will use them anyway. Storing water is cheap when it is plentiful, and most of the supplies are things you should already have -- simply check to make sure you have a reasonable quantity on hand.

Failure rates and recovery times will be different, both in different geographic areas and among the different types of failures which may occur. Electrical problems may exist only in the first week of Year 2000 in one area, a few minutes or a few weeks at another, or no failures may occur in other areas. Food supplies may be constant in one area, while shortages (minor or otherwise) develop elsewhere. Billing errors may not appear until February or March, and may continue all year. These kinds of differences will exist throughout the entire world, and will likely be as random as throwing darts while blindfolded.

Bare Minimum Steps

Make a checklist of companies which are important to you, and try to determine what actions you can take to assure the least disruption to you if they have problems. Consider accounting system problems and operating problems separately.

Make another checklist for your contingency plans -- your basic needs and wants. You can add or delete items as you see fit, but a checklist will help prevent leaving important items out. If you are addicted to something, or are a real grouch if you have to do without, stock up on that thing. Whether it's coffee, sugar donuts, or cigarettes, Murphy's Law can still apply, and you should at least be prepared with your favorite things.

Most importantly, do not panic or ignore Y2K. It is not doomsday, and it is not a mere bump in the road. It is a very real issue, but you can prepare yourself and your family in a reasonable way if you keep your attitude and actions in the middle of the scale.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Tminus38&counting.down), November 23, 1999

Answers

This sounds like a very reasoned approach to Y2K. However, the source claims that: "Even a few government agencies are fairly well prepared, such as Social Security and the Federal Aviation Administration," which we are learning is not really accurate, even in today's posts by a worried GAO official. This leads me to question other aspects of the author's thesis and reasoning. I wish I thought it would be that easy next year and the year after, but after reading for hundreds of hours, it does not seem possible.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), November 23, 1999.

So long... so moderate... can't... stay... awake...

And I *agree* with this assessment! Hmm, maybe I have fatigued myself down to Joe Sixpack's level. "Don't give me this in depth analysis crap, Poindexter, just tell me if Jennifer Aniston is still dating that loser Brad Pitt."

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 23, 1999.

Oh, I do so wish it would turn out to be a Middle of the Road situation, however....

1) Without end-to-end testing I don't trust that electric utilities, banking and telecommunications will come through without *major* problems.

2) One word: OIL

3) Without a fully functioning Post Office, all else is moot.

4) "It's the economy, stupid!"

5) Murphy was an Optimist!

-- LunaC (LunaC@moon.com), November 23, 1999.

I stopped at the explanation of why accounting is more likely than assembly lines and such: "failures in data systems are not obvious the instant they occur, as they are in physical processes". I guess it is over my head, cause I thought that next-day-delivery for assemby lines somehow involved "data". Clearly I don't understand the scope of the problem...

-- Hokie (newportnews@va.com), November 23, 1999.

Middle of the road, hmmmm, I thought that was where I was, oh well.

He isn't factoring in oil, global failures and interconnectedness, nor those pesky terrorists and computer viruses.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), November 23, 1999.

sounds nice...I could handle all that...but if you build a house of cards and there comes up a breeze it will fall down.

-- sandy (rstyree@overland.net), November 23, 1999.

I've noticed quite a few people using the Well-it-was-a-problem- before-but argument. In paragraph 7 the author says Two years ago the meltdown theories may have had merit, because very little had been done by most businesses to prepare for Y2K.

On August 16, 1997 President B_ll Cl_nt_n said the following: Now, as the millennium turns, as we have all seen from countless reports, so do the dates on our computers. Experts are concerned that many of our information systems will not differentiate between dates in the 20th and the 21st century. I want to assure the American people that the federal government, in cooperation with state and local government and the private sector, is taking steps to prevent any interruption in government services that rely on the proper functioning of federal computer systems. We can't have the American people looking to a new century and a new millennium with their computers -- the very symbol of modernity and the modern age -- holding them back, and we're determined to see that it doesn't happen.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/Initiatives/Millennium/announcement.html

Does this mean that Bill Clinton was making an argument that did not have merit?

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), November 23, 1999.

U. Bob Remember what happened to GM with a strike at ONE plant. Moreover, ball bearings come from Brazil, oil comes from the Middle East, South America and Africa. As we speak, this country has piles of grain rotting on the ground because the trains aren't running right. I'd like to believe that we can stumble our way through this, but I fear we've automated our way out of being able to do this.

-- ivan (ivan1776@ivnet.net), November 23, 1999.

Norman Dean is now speaking on C-SPAN about Y2K and he's saying it will come in waves and last long into 2001. Scary. Too bad, hardly anyone watches C-SPAN.

-- wondering what (it.is.all@about.com), November 23, 1999.

Wondering,

Norm's trying but it's just too late to do what he's suggesting. People, as judging by the six of seven people in attendance, DON'T CARE. They simply will not, cannot understand this issue, let alone prepare for it. It's over.

Paula's talking about the government do this and that and the private sector picking up the slack. Now? After a year of straight in-your- face lies. It's over. Just prepare.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), November 23, 1999.

LunaC: Is that one item about the POST OFFICE meant as relief humor?

What do you think you have now as far as a "fully fuctioning Post Office"?

O-I-L will be the key to this whole thing. I do believe that is why So Damn Insane has picked THIS time frame to see if he can "rattle the cage" of Y2K--a psychological unnerving, if you will. Plus, he can try to collapse the world markets as a bonus for revenge on the Great Satan. The oil production/delivery system has elements of ALL critical Y2K problems directly associated with it--from power to banking(money transfers) to telecomm to ports to y2K-compliant ships/pumps/stations... Without grease/oil/gas, the whole world's machinery comes to a VERY quick halt, EVEN IF EVERY OTHER Y2K problem area has NO FAILURES/PROBLEMS.

We can't go back to the 1840's in England, where they used ANIMAL FAT to grease the locomotives of the first non-mine trains, as there was then NO commercial oil available yet anywhere in the world! It was a time of machinery actually getting ahead of technology for a time, and it is a rather humorous read!

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), November 23, 1999.

As other posters have stated, oil will probably be the critical element. Bin Laden supposedly has quite a few supporters in Saudi Arabia. I wonder if there might be terrorists attacks aqainst Saudi facilities such as pipelines? I also wonder how secure is the Alaska pipeline? This Rotterdam test may also be critical, but for now I am more concerned about oil.

-- Danny (dcox@ix.netcom.com), November 23, 1999.