Confused

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I have enjoyed TB2000 for several months. It has helped me think of things to buy and ways to prepare, but it has changed. I can't follow some of the responses anymore, and it seems people who disagree and are nice about it are getting deleted. I liked the discussion. It's hard to have a discussion with only one side present. Why can't we go back to that?

-- confused (confused@confused.com), November 23, 1999

Answers

I'm a tad confused too... What the heck is infomagic?

-- ynott (ynott@incorruptible.com), November 23, 1999.

Hi confused. I only joined TB2000 a few weeks ago, and even I've noticed an apparent spike of spite since them. One of the first things I commented on was the warmth and compassion of many of the posters, but I'm now seeing a lot of trolling and even people vehemently disagreeing with others who appear to be saying the same thing.

My guess, for the little it's worth? It's just that it's not an academic problem anymore. Even the trolling pollys here don't really, deep down, believe that it'll be a BITR (no? Then why are they still here? There's only so much entertainment value in posting "Dumb doomers"). I myself made a really stupid post about looting because I was just so worried about how I would react at rollover. :(

To draw an analogy from the software engineering world (how apt), when you're 10% into the project, it's all smiles and team spirit and "We'll overcome it together". With 90% of the time gone, and 90% of the work still to do (as is often the case), the protectionism, blame cycle and back-covering starts, just when you need it least. One of the first symptoms is perfectly reasonable people shouting "NO! YOU FOOLS! YOU'RE ALL WRONG! WE HAVE TO DO IT *MY* WAY!" even when everyone else is agreeing with them. Hint: read and respond to the content, not the titles. :)

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 23, 1999.


I have been a regular since January. I post occassionally. There has always been a debate on the extent of what will happen next year. I came to this forum by accident, and actually think it is one of the best online. This is like a Political Debate, and soon we will see who is right. I have talked with IT people, one last night who is a consultant and he doesn't think it will be a catastrophe, but he agress it will be messy, just lots of glitches. They can't fixe it all in time, nor is everyone even trying! Buisness likes to whitewash and put on a happy face(stock value has a Big part of that happy happy attitude). I truely think research on the subject is vital in deciding where you are comfortable for next year. It is a personal issue.

I also believe what happens here is there are those who have done amazing research and have cold hard facts and have shared what they found. Then you have those who have done little to no research,those who have no clue of the intricate technology that makes the world run like timeclock. You get into a tug of war game here, who is right verses who is wrong. Much like the political parties which are Democrates, Republicans and Independents. We have Pollies, Trolls,DGI and many other labels. But the best part is we are unified, it is not just one country..this forum is a melting pot of all nations which adds that many more beliefs and views! Best of luck all of you and Happy Holiday!!

-- cassandra (american_storm@usa.net), November 23, 1999.


Colin and cassandra,

Thank you. And I agree, some.

I think cassandra you are partially right about the informed and the uninformed, with this caveat: I believe what another post recently said; that it is possible to reach either conclusion in this debate from the information on the internet.

(still) confused

-- confused (confused@confused.com), November 23, 1999.


It does not require paranoia to suspect the trolls have reasons for being here. I suspect that it will only get worse. While some assistance to newcomers can be provided, the board is dominated by many watching the pre-game show. We've already got their chips, dips, and drinks. We're sitting in the lazy boy waiting for the kick-off for a potentially very long four quarters of action. While it appears as though many people are insensitive to the threat, the fact is that questions that seem so pressing to newcomers have been asked, debated, and discussed over and over and over. "Why do some people get it and others don't?" "What do you do when your neighbors come knocking?" "When will the panic start?" "Why is Wall St. oblivious to this whole thing?" Years of debate have not provided answers, only more questions. I sense that the long-time regulars are beginning to get anxious again. When the hell are they going to kick the ball?!!! While conventional wisdom suggests that a "kickoff" is a bad analogy (a tsunami may be a better one), it was said so well a day or two ago: "End-to-end testing begins on January 1st."

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 23, 1999.


This forum has functioned as a Socratic horsefly on the ass of the government propaganda machine (even propaganda has its own euphemism nowadays--'spin'). And lo and behold, we've found a swarm of mindless but angry hornets descending on our house: professional, persnickity, persistent Pollies. We horseflies have wondered--Why do they come? And whence? Whether the Pollies are invidious saboteurs, or simply teen jack-offs, the horseflies, IN ORDER TO COMPLETE OUR MISSION, have decided to fight back. And what is our mission, dear reader? To ferret out some workable truth from the miasma of lies and silence presented to us by our Worthies in the government and media.

-- Spidey (in@jam.petroclival), November 23, 1999.

Letter to Congress June9,1999 From the IEEE (institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) the oldest and largest intl. non-profit assc. of engineers and computer scientists in the world. (credibility) 1. Prevention of all Y2K failures was never Possible: read on 1.1."Y2K COMPLIANT" DOES NOT EQUAL "NO Y2k FAILURES". If an organization makes all of its systems y2k compliant it does not mean that that same organization will not experience y2k failures causing harm to itself and other organizations. In fact, efforts to become y2k compliant in one place could be the direct cause of such failures in others. If interconnected systems are made compliant in different ways, they will be incompatible with each other. Many systems in goverment and industry are mistakenly being treated as if they were independent and fixed in the most expedient way for each of them. When this Humpty Dumpty is put back together again it will not work as expected, without complete testing, which is unlikely.

1.4 COMPLEXETY KILLS. The internal complexity of large systems, the further complexity due to the rich interconnections between systems, the diversity of the technical environments in type and vingtage of most large organizations and the need to make even small changes in most systems WILL overwhelm the testing infrastructure that was never designed to test everything at once. Hence much software will have to be put back into use without complete testing, a recipe, almost a commandment, for WIDESPREAD FAILURES."" END

-- d____ (dciinc@aol.com), November 23, 1999.


As we get into December the stress increases. Anyone who even partially GI has to deal with the knowledge of what might happen. There is added stress from those leaders who choose to demonize prepping as anti-social. Some don't even have the support of there friends and family. The government has succeeded in isolating many GI's which is not a personal attack just a means to the end of controlling and limiting panic.

The edginess will likely increase. The attacks by trolls will increase the closer we get to January. If they are paid hacks than they need to limit the conversion of "newbies."

-- squid (Itsdark@down.here), November 23, 1999.


I have been a participant here since summer 1998. Started mostly as a lurker and then became more active. I am a software engineer with roughly 20 years of experience.

I take a moderate position - somewhere between the two 'extremes' that serve as labels only to diminish our understanding of the issues.

That being said, I strongly support the deletion of posts by individuals who have declared their intent to destroy TB2000.

It has absolutely nothing to do with so-called 'freedom of speech' issues. Those who do not care for the way this forum is being moderated can simply leave. They are free to start their own forum if they wish but their disingenuous cries of censorship get precious little sympathy from me.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 23, 1999.


My mother told me that freedom of speech was meant to protect people who would critisize the government, not to allow all kinds of vileness. (She was referring to the filth that is MTV, but it applies any number of places).

Anyway, one thing you have to understand about anybody in power is that they have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Have mercy on them and their facile arguements, all their cards are about to tumble down.

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), November 23, 1999.



Could someone please answer yknott's question? (What is [who is?] "infomagic".) Also, the meaning of "LOL"?

Thank you.

from "Tecnologically challenged"

( because I'm 66 and female.) But I did take a few computer courses a couple of years ago, so that I wouldn't be the last person on Earth to know what they are. (In 1996, when I took my first course, I didn't know what the instuctor meant when he said "Boot up!) Got an "A" in the course, one of the top three grades. Sorry if that sounds immodest. At my age, ther isn't much left to be proud of!

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 23, 1999.


Your comment about no man/woman of fewest words award is funny. We all have to have asense of humor to last in this world. In my previous post, I dropped an "e" n "there". And her I had that proofreading course as well!

Have a blessed Day!!

Technologically Challenged

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 23, 1999.


Hi Constance,

"Infomagic" is the handle of a poster to the csY2k board and a contributer to Cory Hamasaki's DC Weather Reports. You can find those here:

Link

I hope someone else might have the link to the Infomagic articles.

"LOL" is "Laugh Out Loud"

Hope that helps : ) <<---- smiley face

Mike

===================================================================

-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), November 23, 1999.


My fingers are stumbling over my brain! Usually it's my tongue!

There were two or three errors in that last post.

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 23, 1999.


Constance, I have been here a few month and I also am not sure who or what infomagic is or does, however LOL means Laugh Out Loud: chatroom slang, I need a course in chatroom terms.

-- Marli (can'tget@it.duh), November 23, 1999.


Thank You, Mike. There is another one - - "OT'.

I'm thanking you in advance if you have a chance to respond.

-- Constance A. Iversen - "Connie" (hive@gte.net), November 23, 1999.


OT means Off Topic. This means that it either definitely is not related to Y2K or that it might be connected in some fashion, but is not directly related to Y2K. Many O.T. posts are quite relevant to Y2K.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), November 23, 1999.

OT = Off Topic (for some that describes their view of the whole forum but that's another story)

maybe LINKMEISTER can link you to the definitions thread(s) where we ahve done this before

(He says shining the shilouette on the nearest tall building hoping for the cry "This is a job for LINKMEISTER")

Night train

-- jes a ol' footballer (nighttr@in.lane), November 23, 1999.


Hi all!

Infomagic is actually, Y2000@Infomagic.com, the email address of an anonymous Y2K alarmer.

This person is revered by Corey Hamasaki, author of the Washington DC Y2K Weather Report (see link above).

Look for Infomagic's three essays on weather reports 100, 103 and 107.

Y2K: Set Recovery on Part 1 - Charlotte's Web Y2K: Set Recovery On Part 2 - The Devolutionary Spiral Y2K: Set Recovery On Part 3 - We're Going to See the Elephant

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), November 23, 1999.


I wouldn't call infomagic an alarmer. He just said what he felt. That's it. He has not posted his feelings over and over in many places (Paul Milne is a better target to call an alarmer). And how did you come up with the revered part? Cory has given space in the WRP's to lots of other people, some a couple of times too. Cory may feel that the infomagic devolutionary spiral may happen. But revered? I doubt it.

-- anonymous (anonymous@anonymous.com), November 23, 1999.

Anonymous:

I probably miscommunicated, "alarmer" (to me) means someone who sounds the alarm.

Corey revering Infomagic comes from the comments preceding Infomagic's articles in Corey's weather reports. Corey thinks highly of this anonymous person, and takes Infomagic seriously.

My apologies Anonymous, when I write "from the hip" I often write colloqually, not technically. Thus the misinterpretation. I shall try to write more accurately (or slow down and think through what you write before hammering the keyboard Kurt!)

Thanks!

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), November 23, 1999.


Gosh, I wish I could find out who Infomagic is, do you suppose when the gig is up he/she will strip away the handle?

-- curious_as_a_cat (karlacalif@aol.com), November 23, 1999.

So do I!

Not likely to happen, though. Let's be thankful for everyone, including the anonymous folks, who has wakened us up, educated us, encouraged us, and kicked us in the *ss when we needed it.

Send him a note! That's his email address. You likely won't get an answer, but he'll get it nonetheless.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), November 23, 1999.


Glad we've got the time to bring a newbie up to date a bit. A couple more (oddball, eccentric) additions:

1) Cory respects InfoMagic, but doesn't really believe his extreme predictions, because Cory at heart is an optimist, even tho his brain is that of a dire pessimist.

2) There are a mere miniscule of Doomers who share InfoMagic's vision. Being one of them, I can tell you, not only do the Pollys heap scorn and ridicule upon us, but also most of our fellow, less-than-extreme, more-middle-of-the-road (Oh, yes, isn't that where ALL "sensible, rational" people reside?) category of Doomers.

3) Who is InfoMagic in real life? I'm taking bets he's someone VERY high-ranking in government, industry, or academe. Hope he reveals his identity post-Y2K. Would like to shake his hand.

Bill

-- William J. Schenker, MD (wjs@linkfast.net), November 23, 1999.


Thanks for explaining "infomagic"....I tried to figure it out from contextual clues, but to no avail. I appreciate all of you who wrote in to explain.

-- Ynott (Ynott@incorruptible.com), November 24, 1999.

At the time infomagic made his posts and then appeared on Cory's info reports, he was thought to be a computer type living in Northern Arizona..Flagstaff? He came off as a pretty sharp dude and painted a possibility of the Fall of the American Empire. It may be required reading a hundred years hence. What he did was make comparisons between the Fall of Rome and where we are today with Y2k, etc. He discussed our "carrying capacity" (available food production vs population) and gave comparisons with what happens in nature. He also went into how very inter-related everything is in todays world.

-- rb (ronbanks_2000@yahoo.com), November 24, 1999.

About 6 months or so ago, Infomagic's real identity was 'outed'.

I don't have a link to the relevant posts, but am pretty sure it was not any high-ranking government or corporate official.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 24, 1999.


Thanks to all of you for answering my questions. I am a baby at this, even though I'm old. I see where "yknott" appreciates it, too.

I first learned about "Y2K" at my church when the instructor answered my question about pharmaceuticals (my husband is a diabetic of 42 years' standing and I have HBP and asthsma (sp?) and he said that Medicare would likely go down. This was in March and needless to say, got my attention. I had just gotten my first computer for Christmas (I didn't need one as long as I was taking courses at my community college - - I could go to the beautiful lab.) Anyway, I am OT(!)and I also want to know what "spam" is - - I know about the canned meat - - and what a "Troll" is. From the context, I suppose it is a "Pollyanna" who dares to intrude on an "Alarmist" site. My own joke I made up: "A lot of "Pollys" are going to want a lot of crackers." And we all pray that they are right - - I will be only too happy to eat the plate of crow my brother has planned for me.

Thank all of you for your kindness in responding and for not saying: "Sheesh! What rock did SHE crawl out from under?

Technologically Challenged - -

-- Constance A. Iversen - "Connie" (hive@gte.net), November 24, 1999.


Also - -

Does "Infomagic" still have such a dismal outlook? These pessimists (and I am one) don't seem to change their minds very often. Neither do the optimists, either.

Thanks

Challenged

-- Constance A. Iversen - "Connie" (hive@gte.net), November 24, 1999.


OK, what's a "sysop"?

Sorry I'm so uninformed.

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 24, 1999.


Constance: "sysop" is short for "system operator" or the folks who are tasked with overseeing this forum.

I've not read anything recent by Infomagic so I can't comment on his current views. Please keep in mind as you read the "Infomagic scenario" that it is, like most stuff here, one person's opinion.

Infomagic presents a worst case scenario, explaining how things could go from bad to worse in a 'devolutionary spiral'. While I certainly do not consider the Infomagic scenario to be likely, I do think it sits at the extreme end of 'minutely possible in our lifetimes' - sorta like a giant meteor striking the earth scenario - possible, yes, even likely over the very long term if preventative action is not taken, but not likely in our lifetimes.

Anyway, if and when you do read it, take it with a grain of salt. It does, however, present us with a very clear and unambiguous "anti- goal".

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), November 24, 1999.


Night Train mentioned a 'definitions' thread. Anyone know where that is?

Anyway, thank you all - - Mike, Marli, Elaine, Night Trian, Kurt, Anonymous, William Schenker, rb, and Arnie Rimmer for answering and especially Yknott for asking my question; also, Ed and Jennifer Yourdon for "Time Bomb.." and Shaunti Feldhahn for her "Joseph Project."

Challenged - - It's like learning Greek.

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 24, 1999.


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