Ed Yourdon, Art Bell and many other prognosticators have started to cover their behinds....

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I'm a hard core doomer, but I've noticed of late that Ed and Art and others have gotten very moderate. Covering their asses, that's what it amounts to. Don't want to be called apocalyptic, if things mysteriously continue. What prey tell is this NEW information that suddently gives these guys hope? Hope you're not wimping out, are you Ed?

-- hmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999

Answers

People like Art Bell and Gary North have both consistently said they were going to quiet down as it went into critical mass. They were only willing to talk openly while the overwhelming majority was ignoring because the supply lines can't take many preparing.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 22, 1999.

Bullshit. People like Ed and Art and Mike Adams have made a small fortune preaching the impending catastrophes. To suddenly take a moderate view is simply wimping out. Better not to say anything at all, than to predict 'cascading failures soon, perhaps, maybe, after the rollover' etc etc etc. Why not call a spade a spade. 15% failure in embedded systems, systemic/domino effects, just in time distribution, gee, you don't even have to be a rocket scientist to understand this one...

-- hmmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999.

Pro, we're trying to have an intelligent conversation here, so shaddup.

-- hmmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999.

Wow! A new species, a doomlite. Where have you noticed that Ed has gotten very moderate? He specifically states that he hasn't changed his position. Time for a remedial reading comprehension course.

Actually, Ed is so sensible that the tides are positioning him in the middle of the Y2K road. Bumps, potholes, sinkholes, earthquake crevices, tanks, weeds, glass -- the road has been littered with all types of speculative debris. We think the road may be buried by a bump like POPOCATEPETL.

It Is Going To Happen, soon now, whatever it will be.

We pray Ed's take is more true to reality than our nigglings of possible terror.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 22, 1999.


Doomlite, eh? We 'pray' for a moderate event? Excuse me, who said that prayer has anything to do with technology? Do you think prayer will suddenly transform all those embedded systems? Do you think prayer will suddenly materialize mountains of food, or oil, or power, or dollar bills from the sky? Please, spare me. Y2K isn't psychological, its man vs machine, and guess what? We lost. Moderation, schmoderation. WIMPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-- hmmmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999.


Troll@work. Do not, I repeat, do not feed the troll.

-- Brooklyn (MSIS@cyberdude.com), November 22, 1999.

It's not hard to see that things do look "better" than they did in the past. Really we are at a point where nobody knows what is going to happen, so they are just sitting back and watching.

Who gives a shit if Ed or Art is wrong about something? If you exist merely to hang on the words of people like these, then you have bigger worries than Y2K. Not that there is anything wrong with these fellows, but you shouldn't follow *anyone* blindly.

I haven't read much of Ed's or Gary's page. I don't need to. I chose to get into preparation because there are a thousand things that could go wrong someday, and I want to be as well preared for each of those as I can be.

I know that some of you have quit your jobs, changed your lives, got divorces etc over Y2K, and I am not here to judge you for that. The fact is though, Yourdon, and North are not here to call your future for you.They are human, and are subject to be cought up in their own "human" world and all that comes with it. Even if they are "experts", they can do no more good or bad than an earthquake expert could. They simply try to call things as best they can. You still have to use that hunk of gray matter god gave you to make some decisions. You also have to get facts from BOTH sides of the story to do so. If you launched yourself into a life altering Y2K fear without first taking in as much info as you can, then you have noone to blame but yourself. I can already hear the sounds of people getting ready to start the Y2K witch hunts, blaming those who brought realtime Y2K fear to our computer screens.

Please do not put all your eggs in one basket. If Yourdon, North, or Art Bell are wrong about ANYTHING, I don't think any different of them. They are human, and they are simply sharing their opinions about the subjects at hand. Nobody is holding a gun to your or their heads.

This isn't aimed at the poster in particular, but I just want to say that if Y2K squeaks by with little visual clues, then take resposibility for how you changed your life. Don't come back after the fact and blame those whom you chose to follow.

-- C. Hill (pinionsmachine@hotmail.com), November 22, 1999.


Actually, Neither Ed NOR Art have ever been serious doomers...in fact, Art Bell only has a very superficial understanding of the problem. Even in '98, Ed said that "if Gary North is a 10, then I am a 7". And lest we forget when Art was on Larry King and Larry asked him "so I know the K in Y2K stands for thousand, but what does the Y stand for? Art: Actually, I don't know" (I'm not making that up)

-Doomy

-- Rational Doomer (doomer@big.time), November 22, 1999.


Feed me. Feeeeeeed me. What the hell is a troll, anyway??

-- hmmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999.

Funny,

Art just had two shows on Y2K. One was for preps.

As for Ed, still 10 years of depression. Please read his comments at www.yourdon.com, of all places. Can't say now, you can't becuase you're in the fog of the unknown. Leave the observations to those who can truly observe.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), November 22, 1999.



It is the humanimal response that will determine how far it slides into Infomagic's Devolution. Prayer and God's intervention CAN influence human behavior.

We don't think God will see fit to intervene with the code tho, and probably not the humanimals either, seeing how they're becoming ...

The doomlite referenced back to hmmmm (cant@say.now) as a play on the doomlit mud of the trolls.

Why do we bother to post here any more? The gulf between our understanding and what we see happening right in front of our astonished eyes, and the general trend of postings, is widening exponentially daily.

At least there's relief reading Robert Cook's posts :-)

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 22, 1999.


With the stroke of a pen having been a .com doomer might become a capital offense in 1999-2000. Hey, this is Klyntons America aint it?

-- JB (noway@jose.com), November 22, 1999.

I for one hope that Y2K is a bump in the road. I like the way of life that I have now. However, nothing is certain in this life, and I for one try to get as much information as I can on a subject

So be it, the time for talking is over, now it is the waiting....

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), November 22, 1999.


Hi Pro - good to see your contribution .....

----

POPOCATEPETL? Sorry, I missed that one....update my abbreviation list please.

----

I disagree with your premis they are "going doomerlite" - there has been much progress since the early days of 1998, certainly much from the mid 1997's when the first books were written.

On the other hand, most rpedictions - to the point of missing deadlines, missing testing, failures in testing, etc. have actually happened. The unexpected (perhaps - eventhis was predicted to a degree!) thing is the violent attitude of those would believe the federal position....the federeal spin, if you will.

I didn't expect the FBI/ATF/Justice Dept level of spin and "predictions" of terrorism, at least not until last year when the domestic anti-terrorism dept sarted going after the "right-wing extremist groups huddling behind closed doors..." routine.

But, since that behavior wsa established, and since the absolute spread of "good news = everything is solved" press releases have come spreading form th efed offices at every baby-step taken forward, I assume it's (many people believing the federal spin) is inevitable.

----

Pro: Seems you're determined to push this paragraph. Good, I'm glad you found it.

Now, please specifically justify your assumption - with some kind of evidence - other than this administration's press releases - that this problem will become "the bump in the road" you so fervently dsire.--- H**l, the bump we all so fervently desire.

Alternatively, explain why we should believe this administration with respect to their stand on any year 2000 issues, after all, they - above everybody else, have a vested financial and political interest in denying and concealing information from the public.

As Seinfeld says, "...not that there is anything wrong with that..."

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 22, 1999.


Hi Robert! Popocatepetl is a volcano in Mexico.

-- Jill D. (jdance@mindspring.com), November 22, 1999.


Look, if someone is just prognosticating, they are entitled to change their opinion at will. But when someone is MAKING LOTS OF MONEY saying things are gonna be real bad, and suddenly, without a shred of proof, are starting to preach moderation, then I start to question their veracity. Sorry, but that's how I see it. Believe me, I've dug hard and deep to understand Y2K on my own terms. I couldn't give a shit what Ed or Art or Gary think. All I can say is, Art Bell, move to the back of the line, and let the leaders lead. Same with you Ed, if you're suddenly finding the middle road....

-- hmmmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999.

Diane, please delete Y2K Pro's entire last post on this thread due to ad hom attacks and gratuitous profanity.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), November 22, 1999.


This whole thread is just a troll anyway. "Hard core doomer," yeah sure.

-- (brett@miklos.org), November 22, 1999.

Here's what Ed Yourdon is saying on the "What's New" section of his site:

http://www.yourdon.com/whatsnew.html

[snip]

As noted on November 18, 1999...

Amazon has selected this site as one of its "featured sites" from mid- November to mid-December 1999, an honor that has motivated me to add some updates after a two-month hiatus. Among other things, I've added my latest Y2K column for Computerworld, entitled "Y2K Whistle-Blowers."

As of today, we're only 43 days away from the Big Rollover, and for those who keep emailing me to see if my opinion has changed because of some great cosmic insight in the past 24 hours, the answer is "no"; it's the same as it was back on February 7th, when I wrote "My Y2K Outlook: A Year of Disruptions, a Decade of Depression", and on September 7th, when I wrote "The Y2K End Game."

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 22, 1999.


Brett, I'm as hard core as they come. Believe me, that's why it infuriates me to here Art Bell etc start saying, oh well, maybe it won't be that bad, etc etc. These guys don't want to stand up and be counted. Now that they're all comfy prepared for anything, they can suddenly afford to preach moderation. Bullshit. Get ready folks, its gonna be baaaaad. Moderation = ill preparedness. OK? What the hell, are all you people disciples of Ed Yourdon? He suddenly defers to Ed Cowles, who says the power should stay on? COME ON!!!! [polly mode on] Gee, I guess that means they've fixed it. Oh goody goody gum drops. We don't have to worry now. The last 3 weeks have seen just about all systems upgraded, tested end to end, and remediated :):):). [polly mode off]. I don't think so. Why should you?

-- hmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999.

Please delete Y2K Pro every time he posts from now on. He does not meet the required qualifications of this forum...

"This forum is intended for people who are concerned about the impact of the Y2000 problem on their personal lives, and who want to discuss various fallback contingency plans with other like-minded people"

Added to that is the fact that he is calling people facists and trying to instigate an extremist insurrection. DELETE!!

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 22, 1999.


OK, so Ed says he doesn't know what's gonna happen. Gee, you would think someone (like him) does. Maybe Ed isn't that smart after all. But common sense means that people who DO know understand that society as we know it is toast. OK? Anyone with half a brain can understand that. Y2K is a monster waking up. If Ed can't say, then damn it, I WILL. Y2K is gonna leave most people scared shitless, without food, heat, water etc. OK? That enough leadership for ya??

-- hmmmm (cant@say.now), November 22, 1999.

hmmmm,

IMO, that's not really a wise approach. The intelligent thing to do is to try to help people understand the problem and calmly get prepared, not cause them to panic by using unnecessary fear tactics. That is why Ed wrote his book and started this forum, he does not want to scare people, just warn them.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 22, 1999.


Where is the profanity? Where is the gratuitous profanity? It does not exist. You want my post deleted because you are a smug censorious facsist that can only stand one side of an issue being presented - your side.

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro@censored.com), November 22, 1999.

No "Pro" - we want this deleted because you have posted it (the quotes) at least 100 times in the past 3 or 4 months...

-- Bob (bob@bob.bob), November 22, 1999.


hmmmmmm: You don't see me painting the forum red any more either, do you? But I have not moderated my position. The simple fact is that its over as far as having an impact goes. This is the crash, and you're getting ready to see it in slow motion.

-- a (a@a.a), November 22, 1999.

Y2KPro-

I've been lurking here for a few months and started posting about 4 weeks ago...I'm a practcal realist...I've probably put 3,500+ hrs into studying this stuff in the past 14 months. As a cop, I've been fortunate enough to talk to and meet people from the State Dept, from the RCMP, from NOVA2000, to Congressmen, to being a guest speaker at one of Dr. Gordon's Y2K conferences. Hell; I even spoken to one of the original literal "rocket scientists" from the Apollo program... (NEVERMIND to the security officers at Silicon Valley who hear the geeks laugh in public, but cry in the bathrooms) BTW-as an afternote, all I've mentioned rate it worse than I do....

I *STILL* don't know what's gonna happen~~

BUT at the risk of someone stealing one of my donuts, I'd have to say a 5 on the 1-10 scale spread out over 9 or 10 months...IMHO

Point is, Sir~

I have had the (mis)fortune of reading your dreg on FAR TOO many threads...I wouldn't mind if it were something NEW, but your last piece of garbage on Ed Yourdan, when he wrote a lot of new stuff over a month ago shows that your are either:

1. To quote the great Bugs Bunny-- "a Maroon" or 2. Someone who likes to see your name in print...

Please, Sir--tell me which, I'm just some dumb cop, and I'd like to know what type of Putz I'm dealing with. Thank you.

-- RJ (LtPita@aol.com), November 22, 1999.


NO RJ, you're just some schmuck who masquerades as a fence-sitter when the truth is far from it. The doom talk has gotten to your psyche. You're scared to death that the individuals who bought this manure out there...and then expounded further on it with even more doom...might be right.

The original idea of this thread was...and is...that a lot of staunch doom and gloom types have cashed in their chips and are counting the profits. No one's getting edgy, except those who fear that quite possibly all of those expenditures and tough words are about to explode in their faces in oh, a little over a month.( And it's too bad, we have some individuals here who simply were dying to shoot their hungry neighbors!)

To censor those sentiments only tends to admit to defeat.

regards, as always.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), November 22, 1999.


Schmuck??? Compared to what I'm usually refered to, that is a compliment....THANK YOU!

Fence sitter???? LoL--I'll wager I've done more to educate people on Y2K in a week than both posters (sorry, their names escape me as I'm writing this--they are probably fake anyhow) in a year.

Methinks thou dost protest too much...

-- RJ (LtPita@aol.com), November 23, 1999.


Bob, you said:

"No "Pro" - we want this deleted because you have posted it (the quotes) at least 100 times in the past 3 or 4 months..."

So Bob, does this also apply to Stan Faryna and his "14 Days Of Preps" stuff he pastes into so many threads? If it does, cool. If not, how is Stan's "spamming" of threads different that Y2KPro's?

-- Paul Neuhardt (neuhardt@ultranet.com), November 23, 1999.


Some people need to read the "About" thing 100 more times. Maybe it will sink in. There's a clue in there.

-- brain atrophy (can't@absorb.it.yet), November 23, 1999.

--hmmmm

Ed has not changed his views. He is being very wise to think forward, bacause the bearers of the message might just be blamed. The managers and CEOs and CIOs are the ones who didn't want to hear about it and certainly didn't want to spend the money to fix it.

We do have to think that things are still working, however precariously, behind the scenes. Unless things are so bad that the public feels it, they will remain in denial. Are you prepared to be wrong? At least Ed says there is the possibility that he's wrong. He's said that from the beginning. As for his making a lot of money, his book was free on the Web for a year before he published it, as his new one is (Humpty Dumpty) and he got 2/3 of what his technical books sell for. In fact, I'll bet he didn't make that much on it. (My sister and her husband publish books.) And I don't even care if he did; he did everyone a great service. Now the Paul Reveres have to take criticism for doing a public service. Please be kind and thankful! The rate at which people return to says "Thanks" is probably about the same rate as it was for the lepers who thanked Jesus for healing them. One in ten!!!

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 24, 1999.


An addendum, Mr.--hmmm:

Ed also has said from the beginning that NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE WHAT WILL HAPPEN. Remember when he said the continual theme song would be just that? I think you WANT a terrible outcome. Why? I don't want to be wrong either (my family and friends think I've gone off the deep end, and I'm quite moderate) but I'd rather be wrong than suffering without the luxuries (food, water, electricity, heat, waste removal, etc.),to which we've all become accustomed. Try to be helpful with your knowlrdge and understanding and people may listen to you as they do Ed and the others.

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive@gte.net), November 24, 1999.


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