Many Texans expect Y2K trouble, poll says By Jan Jarvis Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Large institutions from banks to utility companies have assured the public that the Y2K computer bug will cause no serious disruptions Jan. 1, but more than one-third of Texans recently surveyed are not buying it.

Of 1,000 adults who participated in the Texas Poll, 40 percent said they believe Y2K will cause a serious problem that affects their daily lives, compared with 55 percent of Texans who do not expect a threat.

The poll results surprised many in government and industry who have spent millions of dollars making sure their equipment is Y2K-compliant.

But it did not shock others who recognize that many people -- 45 percent, according to the poll -- know little or nothing about Y2K computer problems.

"For most average Americans, the working of even one computer, much less a giant network of computers, is undistinguishable from magic," said Ray Eve, a sociology professor at the University of Texas at Arlington. "People are afraid all the time that a computer network will push their lives around without them understanding how it is happening."

To quell worries, TXU Electric & Gas has posted Y2K updates on its Web site and held meetings to inform the public about what the company is doing.

"We're just trying to get the word out to as many people as possible," TXU spokesman Rand LaVonn said. "If someone will invite us, we will go."

The telephone poll, which was conducted Oct. 13 through Nov. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Although 66 percent of those polled said it is unlikely that 911 systems will fail, 27 percent considered it likely. Even more -- 36 percent -- said there will be traffic-light problems, and 30 percent said telephone computer failures are likely.

The concerns are sparked by the so-called Y2K bug, the year 2000 computer glitch that may affect some software and computers.

Because of a programming technique used in early computers, some software views years in a two-digit format, such as "99" for 1999. The two- digit representation of 2000 would be "00," which some computers could interpret as 1900, creating the potential for problems with date-sensitive equipment.

Allison Copas, who sells supplies at Best Price Storable Foods in Dallas, said she believes that small businesses will have problems but that, overall, things will go smoothly.

"In my opinion, I feel like there will be glitches, but I don't think it will be as bad as some people think," she said.

Gary Pipes, Arlington's emergency management coordinator, said that people should be prepared but that there is no need to panic.

For starters, traffic signals are not date-sensitive; they are on a 24-hour cycle, he said.

The telephone and 911 systems are also in good shape, Pipes said.

But failures could be a self- fulfilling prophecy if everyone ignores warnings not to pick up the telephone needlessly, he said.

"People need to realize that if everyone in the city picks up the phone at 12:01, they are going to overload the system," Pipes said. "Don't call, particularly 911, unless you have a true emergency."

Although 61 percent of those surveyed said they do not believe electric company computers will fail, 32 percent said power shortages caused by computer problems are likely.

But TXU, which has spent about $40 million on its Y2K program, is 100 percent compliant, LaVonn said.

"We're proving every day that everything is working," he said. "The Handley Plant in Fort Worth is operating on Y2K time now."

Food supplies, hospital equipment and air traffic control systems were viewed as being slightly less at risk than banks and utility companies.

Twenty-five percent of those surveyed said they believe hospital equipment will fail, 29 percent said air traffic control systems will fail and 27 percent said food and distribution systems failures are likely. Thirty- three percent said it is likely that banking-system failure will cause errors in account balances.

Problems with government computers raised the most concerns, with 44 percent of those polled saying computer failures will cause delays in Social Security checks and child- support payments; 49 percent considered such problems unlikely.

Half of Texans polled said that if there are Y2K problems, they would last only a few days, but 22 percent said the problems will last for several weeks.

Nearly 40 percent plan to buy food, water, gas and batteries in preparation for Jan. 1, but 58 percent have no such plans. Karen Anderson, author of Y2K for Women, said that persuading people to stock up is difficult.

The hardest thing in the world to sell is prevention, she said.

"We're so accustomed to suspending our disbelief that when we hear something is happening, nobody does anything about it," Anderson said.

Although she is confident that there will not be any major problems, Shannon Porterfield, the state's Y2K project director, said people should be prepared.

"Individually, reports we've been getting are positive, and we feel confident, but you can't test everything," she said."And we don't have any way of knowing if everyone has fixed everything

-- G Bailey (glbailey1@excite.com), November 21, 1999

Answers

Something fishy is up with that supposed poll. Texas had one of the biggest 1998 preparer pools with serious shortages. Don't you all recall the articles coming out of Texas about the runs on camp stoves and toilet paper? And that it wasn't just surface spot shortages but shortages the distrubuters themselves were feeling?

It must be spin. Kind of a shame. I'm curious to know what those rallying outside the Alamo are really up to. Everything is bigger in Texas. Imagine the size of some of those stashes.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 21, 1999.

I recently relocated from Texas, gave two weeks notice from an engineering position at a MAJOR utility company (telco); and moved FAR, FAR away to the edge of no-where! I can tell you this... TEXAS is in deep dung! Seems most major Texas Corporations have more money than brains. Their idea of y2k remediation is to replace every desktop in their system and call themselves compliant! :-(

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), November 21, 1999.

Paula: I agree. Although I didn't know so many Texans are supposedly preparing. If they are, I sure don't know 'em. I live near Big D. Have not spoke to a single person IN PERSON besides my husband, who doesn't count, that is preparing.

I suspect my LDS neighbors are, but can't confirm. If one of us brings it up, the other looks suspicious and we dance all around the issue. Seems as if they are trying to find out if we are, and we are trying to find out if they are. At school, some students told me of another teacher that is preparing, but I am hesitant to bring it up to her (I have spoken of Y2K to only one teacher there, one of my closest friends, and was shocked by her response--pure hostility--so I am hesitant to bring it up again.)

All this 18 mos, I have wished I knew someone who GI.

If so many Texans do feel that way, like I said, they sure aren't showing it too much.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), November 21, 1999.

Prepared - I ran into the same mentality that you are encountering, in my travels throughout Texas, was one of my big reasons for saying adios to the state I grew up in. Texans tend to be severely independent in most things - and for a state known for everything being bigger and/or better - the biggest thing in Texas is the size of too many Texan's egos.

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), November 21, 1999.

The people who live in Dallas, Houston and other large cities are NOT Texans. They are yankees who move down here when all the big corporate headquarters moved down here. If you want to see TEXUNS, come out in the country, Red River Valley, Panhandle, West Texas, or the East Texas forest. We have been, are, and will be independant. Trust me, the horses will work just fine, my rifle works just fine, my dogs work just fine. The crops in the fields, the cows, and the hay they eat will all be fine. The water table around here is 35 ft down, hand pump may be slower, but it works just fine. Woods are full of squirrels, deer, some wild hogs. We dont trust govt as far as we can throw it, not county, state or federal. They leave us alone, we'll do the same. Most dont need a whole lot of preps, they already got it. The average RURAL home has about a 3 or 4 month supply of just about everything almost all the time. Sure you need to get milk and bread occasionally, but you can do without in a pinch. I think rural Texas is not represented in these polls because we told the pollster to "piss off".

-- A Rural North Texan (CWHale67@aol.com), November 21, 1999.

Hey a rural north Texan, I live in north TX tho too close to Big D to be considered rural. Lemme guess--Van Alstyne? Sherman? Outside Witchita Falls?

And BTW, I am NOT a yankee. Born and raised in the Dallas area, Texas A & M Class of '92. Live in the burbs and have waaaaay more than 3-4 mos of supplies tucked in this house.

Not just all yanks in the cities of Texas. I am insulted to be grouped w/them. 10th generation Texan here!

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), November 21, 1999.

Uh, guys, if you'll check the archives you'll see that we had a get- together in north Texas back in the spring. About 15 of us meet north of Ft. Worth and had a big time.

I can personally think of 20-30 Texans I've communicated with, meet with and/or talked with.

I'm north of Ft.Worth-Dallas (you can tell a Ft. Worth raised boy - he always calls it Ft.Worth-Dallas - not the other way round) and would be happy to communicate with others in the area. Also not immune to the idea of getting togther for a cup of coffee. Would have to be real soon now, obviously.

Give ol_grey_bear a call over at yahoo.

-Greybear

-- Got Contacts?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), November 21, 1999.