Doomers seem to hope for a catastrophic new year as if it is their religion. It is very much a faith issue with them. If they could reason it out, it would lose it's aesthetic appeal. It must be taken on faith, and all evidence regarding the truth of the matter is summarily dismissed, ignored, or subject to derision by the "faithful."

If you cannot produce the prima facia evidence for the foundation of your belief structure; viz. one chip or one system; then your beliefs are founded upon myth.

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 18, 1999

Answers

More entertaining reading: You are very welcome, Doc.

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 18, 1999.

Getting despatate, Huh Andy?

Look, from what I see, the overwhelming Doomer attitude is this: Nobody knows what will happen, there is evidence that something may happen, buy insurance. Is that so difficult to understand? And why is this a religion?

Sure, there are some who seem to want the society to fall apart and be rebuilt anew because it is corrupt and decadent and yadda, yadda, yadda, but that is a small minority here and you know it. The vast majority appears to be nice, intellegent, concerned people, and you want to take every opportunity to spew your pablum over them. Why do you insist on doing this?

The "Faith Based" attitude seems to belong more to the scoffers and non-preparers. Faith in the system so that they don't need to take action. Someone on another thread nailed this one yesterday. There's enough going on out there as far as problems being uncovered, etc, to make one who does take on faith the idea that society is safe from disruptions to want to buy insurance.

What are you so frightened of, Andy Ray? Why can't people just spend their own money how they see fit?

-- (dot@dot.dot), November 18, 1999.

Ooops, klunky sentence in there. Should say:

"There's enough going on out there as far as problems being uncovered, etc, to make one who does not take on faith the idea that society is safe from disruptions to want to buy insurance.

Actually, that may also be true in its original form...

-- (dot@dot.dot), November 18, 1999.

My father used to say,

"Superior people never make long visits,

have to be shown Longfellow's grave

nor the glass flowers at Harvard.

Self reliant like the cat --

that takes its prey to privacy,

the mouse's limp tail hanging like a shoelace from its mouth --

they sometimes enjoy solitude,

and can be robbed of speech

by speech which has delighted them.

The deepest feeling always shows itself in silence;

not in silence, but restraint."

Nor was he insincere in saying, "`Make my house your inn'."

Inns are not residences.

-- Female Poets for 500 (yahright@not.com), November 18, 1999.

Hi Andy, nice to hear from you. You're quite right, there are no doubt some doomers who HOPE Y2K will overturn the status quo. They'll find evidence to support their assumptions, because they WANT to find it.

Then there are people like me. I have a well paid and fulfilling programming job, a loving family, and the time and money to have lots of fun hobbies. It doesn't get much better than that. I'm idolent and decadent, even. I want Y2K to be a BITR. In fact, I want it to be totally smooth, and teflon coated for good measure.

But I can see a Y2K bug in front of me right now that won't be fixed in installed systems until next year because it would upset our rollout schedule. There's the one system that I need to support my belief system. No, you can't have details, I don't trust you. There's no reason for you to trust me either. Hmm, I don't care. ;)

Oh, and could you please explain why it's wacko to pay a 1.7% "insurance premium" to buy a 6 month food stock to cover a forseeable event (insurance industry words). Go on, try. :)

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 18, 1999.

Many Tinfoils, unhappy with their pathetic little lives, struggling at the outside of society, DO want TEOTWAWKI. Perhaps, they think, major social, political and economic change will elevate them into a place of significance. Many, many on this forum gleefully await the deaths of others...

I don't know about you all, but I'm right tired of the world as we know it....Can't wait for the sound of them cosmic keys jingling and that big voice boomin' across the skies, "Gentlemen....its closin' time." and the Spirit andmthe bride say, "Come, Lord Jesus!"

n Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), November 01, 1999

This culture offers us corporate slavery and snickers bars, two car garages and shiney chains. The people are such contented cattle they'll never wake up to the fact that we need a revolution.I pray that y2k will bring teotwaWki bad enough that we loose the trust that has enabled us to be so complacently enslaved.Our numbers are too high anyway,if our species is lucky it'll be a few billion dead and not just a few million.The species doesn't need you or me just enough genetic diversity to ensure survival.Maybe then our species won't suicide like it appears to be so eager to do.

I pray for TEOTWAWKI (hopeful@doome.r), November 01, 1999.

"People who want to survive Y2K should be prepared to kill."

(its@coming.soon), July 27, 1999.

"So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life." -- Gary North

To be honest, the first one that is able to rend the mainstream press mute, would be one of the greatest American Heroes since Washington.

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), November 07, 1999.

"I think that there will be untold millions dead in the US alone."

Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), July 15, 1999

"Just about any sacrifice is worth getting rid of it (federal government) and moving BACK to a Constitutional republic with extremely limited Federal government powers. Even if it means the decimation of the population. If the population is 'content' to live under this tyranny, then they deserve to be wiped out as a result of Y2k. They do not deserve to call themselves 'Americans' because they have not the first clue what an 'American' is." - Paul

Milne, August 1, 1999.

-- Y2K pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), November 18, 1999.

Apart from a few obvious targets who rarely post here (Milne), this image of a "doomer" is something you Andy Ray have constructed in your own mind, that now functions as a straw man, a substitute for factual analysis of the poster population here, and typical post contents. Besides since (a) the posters here are clearly irrational in your view, and (b) they are clearly having no measurable effect on the 'herd' outside, why bother coming here to punch this poor straw man ? [laughter]

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), November 18, 1999.

Interesting idea, but please be wary of all-inclusive, blanket statements, lest you become the very same thing that you criticize.

-- coprolith (coprolith@fakemail.com), November 18, 1999.

Thomas Jordan. 1612?1685

Coronemus nos Rosis antequam marcescant

LET us drink and be merry, dance, joke, and rejoice,

With claret and sherry, theorbo and voice!

The changeable world to our joy is unjust,

All treasure 's uncertain,

Then down with your dust!

In frolics dispose your pounds, shillings, and pence,

For we shall be nothing a hundred years hence.

We'll sport and be free with Moll, Betty, and Dolly,

Have oysters and lobsters to cure melancholy:

Dame Venus, love's lady,

Was born of the sea;

With her and with Bacchus we'll tickle the sense,

For we shall be past it a hundred years hence.

Your most beautiful bride who with garlands is crown'd

And kills with each glance as she treads on the ground,

Whose lightness and brightness doth shine in such splendour

That none but the stars

Are thought fit to attend her,

Though now she be pleasant and sweet to the sense,

Will be damnable mouldy a hundred years hence.

Then why should we turmoil in cares and in fears,

Turn all our tranquill'ty to sighs and to tears?

Let's eat, drink, and play till the worms do corrupt us, 'Tis certain, Post mortem

Nulla voluptas.

For health, wealth and beauty, wit, learning and sense,

Must all come to nothing a hundred years hence.

-- Get a (life@andy.ray), November 18, 1999.

I guess I would be what you would all call a newbe. I have been reading postings on this forum off and on for about a month now. I've been cruising other sites for about a year. Please forgive the formatting, as I have never before attempted to post anything to one of these before except a quick one liner to someone wanting info on a stove. I would describe myself as a fence sitter. Not quite sure what to think of all this stuff. I've read a number of news articles that seem to leave one with the belief that Y2K wont be much more than a few days of inconvenience, and a number of web articles that claim it's TEOTWAWKI.

The "GI" position seems to be, everything is going to stop working and you better be ready to stash and grow your own food and protect it and your family from those that haven't. This is usually followed by a " But don't take my word for it, do your own research" type of statement. That's not too helpful as a search on Y2K will net you about 250,000 responses, and most of them seem to give the same general links with general facts like "If we lose 40% - 50% of the worlds computers, we're in deep s&*t!" Well I don't think anyone would deny that but how do we know it will happen?

The "Polly" position seems to be, there is no evidence, historical or otherwise, (unless you can find them some) that proves that anything will happen, so "Don't worry, everything is going to be ok. Koskinen (or the head of the FAA, or who ever) said so just the other day" Well I must say, I have never met a government official that I would trust as far as I could throw them. Please don't quote government officials in an attempt to make a point that you want any intelligent person to believe. Other than that, it is hard to find facts to support or prove a negative or non event.

The other day I ran upon this posting from Andy Ray.

Okay, since no one could produce a single independently verifiable "Y2K-doom embedded IC," we will consider that matter settled for now. In a continuing effort to identify one verifiable catastrophic failure of anything in use today, I ask the following: Can anyone produce the manufacturer, part number, a procedure for verifying Y2K non-compliance, and one current application or platform for an industrial controller (since these have been a hot topic lately). To ameliorate the request, I include the following Example of a Y2K compliant system: Example:

Manufacturer: Allen-Bradley Part Number: 1747-L511, 1747-L514, 1747- L524 Procedure: Attempt to roll the real-time clock for powered down/powered up 991231/000101 rollover tests. Results: No real-time clock in SLC 5/01; 5/02 processors, only a free-running clock. Platforms/Applications: SLC 5/01, 5/02 are part of the A-B Small Logic Controllers family of processors. Uses are varied and industry- wide.

(snip)

Regards, Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), July 06, 1999

So I took the advice of the "GIs" and now the challenge from Andy (a Polly?) to do some research on embedded chips and systems. Now I have read on other sites that 3% of these will fail. Some others I found said up to 15% will fail, but no verifiable facts. The way I figure it, if 3% of these fail then 3% of the total systems will have problems or become unusable (assuming we agree that all of the non compliant chips are found in an equal amount of computers). A 3% slowdown in everything would cause some problems, but not the end of the world. So I went to 3 different websites of 3 different companies. I'm sure there are more but I just used the one Andy used "Allen-Bradley" and the only two I could think of Texas Instruments and Motorola. I've put the addresses below so everyone could look into the horses mouth. I don't know how to make a hot link like you guys do, so you will have to forgive me.

Findings

Allen-Bradley http://domino.automation.rockwell.com/webstuff/y2k.nsf Of their 199 listed date sensitive items they listed, 89 (or 45%) need to be fixed or replaced.

Texas Instruments http://www.ti.com/corp/docs/year2000/dspsds.htm Of their 121 listed date sensitive chips, 37 (or 30%) are not compliant.

Motorola http://mot-sps.com/y2k/realtimeclocks.html They only list their non compliant chips totaling 72. I guess if it's not on their "Black status" list, your ok.

Based on this little bit of data, we must conclude that 30% to 45% of the embedded systems (and the computers they are part of) will have problems. This excludes any software problems. If this is true for all the manufactures, We will be seeing problems everywhere for some time. Even if a company doesn't fail, if everything just slowed down or services are reduced by 30% to 45% until they get fixed, we're in deep S&*T! Remember, the companies involved in doing the fixes will be slowed down too and would be overloaded under normal circumstances.

GI'S I come from the days of Woodward and Bernstein and figure there's some kid out there wanting to make a name for themselves that would want to get to the truth. I guess that's just not the way it is any more. I mean, this was not that hard to find once I knew what to look for. I haven't seen any facts like this in any news article or web posting I've read so far. Let's start finding and posting facts folks not just other WebPages that support your view with links to others that support them Etc..

DOOMER'S For those of you that are in to this for the thrill, I hope you get everything you are hoping for. I see a lot of posts on firearms and weapon of choice. Recently one on the benefits of a 22mag for shooting people as opposed to an AR-15 (or any .223) because of lower report and less muzzle flash. I just got to say, when you grow up and do get into your first fire fight (and if you survive) you will find it less cool than you thought. Unless you are a cold blooded killer. Let me tell you what to expect when it does happen. Everything slows way down. You try to drop to the ground but gravity doesn't pull you down as fast as normal. If you have more than 300cc of urine in your bladder, it will be out of your bladder and in your pants before you do hit the ground (this is a self preservation reflex, don't blame yourself). Then the only thing you can think of is how will your family take it if you don't make it. Then training or instinct takes over and you aren't you anymore. Rational thought, feelings, everything, gone, and you fight or run. I prefer to run if It's an option (stats show an 80% better chance of survival) but maybe I'm just a weenie. If you stay and fight it goes on and on and on forever, then 10 or 20 seconds after it started, it ends. One way or another it will end. Then (if you survive) you have your hole life to look forward to sleepless nights interrupted by nightmares. Gee, I hope my weapon doesn't have too much muzzle flash. There are literally tens of thousands of men and women in this country that have far superior training and experience in this sort of thing than anything you will read in Solder of fiction or see in a Rambo movie. The only battle you can truly win is the one you don't get into. All others are a varying degrees of loss.

POLLY'S I must admit, after I read Andy's post and the follow up posts, I thought the facts would come to Andy's rescue. But I guess that just isn't so. Andy, did you look at that website that you referred to in your post? You should, 45% of their date sensitive stuff doesn't work. Thank you so much for helping me off (pushing me off) the fence. To answer your post, I have found not one but 198 bad chips from 3 manufactures. I would guess there are many more, but you only asked for one. All in all I hope your right and everyone else ends up eating humble pie. I'll be the first one to take a serving, thank you.

ALL I guess now I will be considered a "Doomer" or if I'm lucky a GI. Oh well I guess I can live with it. Sorry if I offended anyone here, that is not my intent. I'm a bit shook up from all this info I found and need to digest it and act fast, but that's my problem and my fault. I would like to ask everyone to try to stick to the high road. I don't believe Dr.Yardon created this forum as a place for people to go to and through barbs at each other (I know, I know, practice what you preach). I think he did it so ideas and facts could be traded freely. I have more that I would like to say but I think this is enough for now.

P.S.

Grandpappy and Faith,

I love your posts, they are very helpful and fun to read. I hope others will follow suit soon.

P.P.S

Poole,

Get a life. At least Andy is trying to prove something he believes is true, you're just mean and deceitful. The end DOES NOT justify the means.

I DIGRESS.

-- DOC (hopefor@thebest.com), July 09, 1999

From the archives

-- (from@the.archives), November 18, 1999.

I was prepared to be disappointed yet again when I read your post, and I must say, initially, I was delightfully surprised! You are most welcome for any assistance I provided in helping you arrive at your decisions regarding the catastrophic nature of Y2K, though I question the validity of that claim - based on observations regarding your use of the numeric facts.

Your calculations are off only a little, and only in three areas - one of which a diligent post-er pointed out in a response:

1) The total products listed at Year 2000 Ready number more than 199. As a result, your math, while accurate, does not portray the ratio of date sensitive/unaffected equipment with statistical integrity.

2) There are twenty-eight listed "Known Issues," of which you counted an affected 199 systems. These issues include: ten which simply require a manual reset of the date (five of which are only affected by the leap year day 000229); six which have already been fixed with patches; two with patches shipping next month; four in which the date is merely misreported; two which are actually operating system issues (one VAX and one NT/Win9x - both of which have been addressed); two that require the customer to contact Allen-Bradley due to the custom nature of the design specifics; and two that are truly not ready.

3) If you factor the age of the systems with "Known Issues" and their installed base, the affected systems amount to less than four percent of Allen-Bradley's total offering. If you factor the "Not Ready" systems into this portion, one arrives at a 0.2857% maximum possible percentage of affected systems.

I have postulated since posting on this forum (fora?) that doomers habitually over-/mis-state their case to produce their desired numeric results. The most likely outcome must frighten them much more than any of their hoped-for scenarios; viz. the lights stay on, people shop as usual, and ignore everything doomers ever say again. And, with each passing "mini-Y2K" date, and each defection of the leadership, their cause grows yet more futile.

I noted the overwhelmingly positive response your massaged presentation (and liberal interpretation) of the "facts" received. After this post, please note the dismay, harassment, and harsh-wishes that are certain to follow. And all who sincerely seek the truth, ask yourself: Do the facts form the basis of the hypothesis? or are the facts accepted/rejected based on their agreement with the hypothesis?

-- more (from@the.archives), November 18, 1999.

Y2K Pro,

Thank you for the quotes and links - interesting reading there.

Colin MacDonald,

My issues are not with people such as yourself. I have taken to repeating the phrase: Prepare to whatever level gives you security. Which is exactly what I have done (though that required no preparation, as I believe Y2K will be a non-event).

My issues are with those who made the claims that there was something to prepare for in the first place. They made some fairly substantial claims and predictions, which 1) they have yet to back up (see the above links to requests for data on just a single IC or system); and 2) have not come to pass (to which they have responded with ArtBellian finesse; concluding everything from the first ever successful conspiracy pitting the government, industry, and the media against the populace at large; to blatant denial that they ever made the claims quoted above by Y2K Pro).

They disclaim that they will be the first ones to apologise if they have unnecessarily frightened the public in their bids to overthrow society as we know it, or abet such schemes; but they have yet to step up to the keyboard and admit their folly regarding the JoAnne Non-Effect (one attempt at such an admission was so filled with asterices as to render the admission a justification of the meme by the lack of evidence...).

My issue with those people is thus: They did not know what they were talking about to begin with, and they have demonstrated this fact with fallacious arguments, half-truths, and botched predictions. And, they have continued to push their fear onto a largely uninformed populace for the sole purpose of profiteering off book sales.

They are, simply put, selfish and malicious liars.

Count Vronsky,

I am and will remain active on this board until the non-event passes. There are people about just beginning to look into the issue. I will invest as much energy as possible into sharing the truth about Y2K with those people. Afterwards, they can read my book for the full story.

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), November 18, 1999.

Well, that's a fairly shallow analysis of what constitutes faith. If by faith, you mean belief in the absense of facts, I disagree. There are plenty of KNOWN facts that demonstate we have a very serious systemic problem that may produce some very bad consequences. It doesn't take a rocket scientist or even "blind faith" to realize what those consequenses may be.

On the other hand, I do see a lot of blind faith in operation that can best be exemplified by the statement, "Good ol' American ingenuity will fix it." Duh!! It was good ol' American ingenuity that created this problem in the first place.

Get a clue folks!

Phil Morris

" It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst, and to provide for it." Patrick Henry

-- PatrickHenry7 (patrickhenry7@hotmail.com), November 18, 1999.

I'm a statistical guy by trade, and this looks like one for the 'normal curve'.

A SMALL percentage of people are like the ones Andy describes: wanting everything to crash, and a SMALL percentage of people think that there will be no problems. Most folks are in the middle somewhere.

Some pollies would like to have the IRS crash and be replaced by a consumption tax. I'm a 'doomer', in that I think we'll be lucky to be saddled with only a depression, but I don't WANT it to happen. I like my life just the way it is.

That's the problem with broad brushes, the oversplash colors some people the wrong shade. This forum represents the whole spectrum of opinion. And be assured it is a spectrum, not just two views.

If the system crashes just enough to throw a few pieces of deadwood out of government into real jobs, so much the better. However, I'd just as soon leave things the way they are for, say, a few decades. If that makes me a doomer, so be it. I'm preparing for a complete crash. It's my dough, and I'll cook it any way I see fit.

Kook

PS: I'm an engineeer with HEAVY embedded systems experience. That is the main problem concerning me. I am convinced my company will crash and burn, and my bosses are oblivious to the risk. FOF is the motto of the day. I'm also an evangelical Christian who thinks that Y2K has NOTHING to do with the endtimes. It don't have to be related to Revelations to be sheer ultimate stupidity and the umpteenth time mankind has shot himself in both feet after inserting in mouth. Civilizations all collapse. All of them. Just a matter of when.

-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), November 18, 1999.

Y2Kook (and others),

Excellent observations, except for Andy Ray (for the most part). Civilizations DO collapse, given time. To quote the final verse in one of my own songs:

"So keep the blindfold on: someone else will steer. Despite appearances there's nothing to fear. Life is beautiful, our future's bright and clear, just ask the Mayans...Oh sorry, they're not here."

Cheers,

John Ludi

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), November 18, 1999.