Just a thought

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Had an interesting debate the other day with a coworker regarding Preps. Said coworker did think that there was a chance that Y2K MIGHT have an impact, but was doing nothing about it. (Which is an attitude I'd encountered before, this notion that "if I don't let myself consiously THINK anything bad is going to happen...it won't".)

The exchange went something like this:

Ludi: So you think that there is maybe a 10-20% chance that Y2K might have some adverse impact on your own life, even in terms of slightly diminished income capacity?

(I'll call her Subject A, just in case she ever comes on this board) Subject A: Yeah, I guess that's reasonable...

Ludi: Do you have health insurance?

Subject A: Well yes, of course!

Ludi: Are you ill?

Subject A: No.

Ludi: Do you anticipate becoming ill at any clearly defined point in the future?

Subject A: Of course not!

Ludi: And you've probably spent thousands of dollars on health insurance over the years, correct?

Subject A (growing a bit more uncomfortable): Er...yes.

Ludi: So if a doctor were to tell you that you had a 15% chance of developing a condition that would require a certain undefined amount of either hospitalization or treatment, you'd probably think that having health insurance is a good idea, right?

Subject A (visibly squirming in her seat...which I found rather attractive in a perverse way): Yes.

Ludi: My point exactly.

I had great fun with that tactic. She'll probably still not do anything, but it was an amusing little debate.

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), November 18, 1999

Answers

I used a similar argument over the ast few years. Do you have auto insurance? Fire? Homeowners? Life insurance? Health? Etc. Then why not y2k insurance? Only worked a couple times but it was worth it. Those that didn't listen are SOL.

Unless nothing happens. Then I get to hear about it. My argument back will be "How long since you used your life insurance?" Obviously never, so I'll ask "Should I give you a hard time about that?"

-- Powder (powder@keg.com), November 18, 1999.


I don't know about "everywhere", but here in NJ you can't drive without auto insurance or hold a mortgage without homeowners insurance. Otherwise, I'm sure half this state would be driving and living without it. Remember when seatbelts weren't required by law..? I think i was the only person wearing it then. And yup, since that law, a lot of them still don't wear it.

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), November 18, 1999.

Excellent point! Are you aware that insurance companies view Y2K as a "forseeable event" and so WON'T COVER YOU AGAINST IT? That's pretty scary all by itself. If you want to insure yourself and your loved ones, then you have to do it yourself. Let's work out how much it costs.

Assuming 5% APR on a credit balance, the extra cost (in lost interest) of pre-buying a month of post-Y2K food today is an "insurance premium" of (simplistically) 10 weeks interest on the purchase price, or 0.96%.

So that's the "insurance premium" for a months prepping. One per cent on cash. Two per cent if you pay credit rates for it.

Of course, it rises if you buy more than a month. The real cost is (6 weeks + half of the prep), so even a six month store only has a premium of 1.7% / 3.4% bought on cash/credit.

I LOVE it. Thanks!

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 18, 1999.


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