I enjoyed the Mini Survey on Y2K post and I think that could be a great starting point to share personnal experience in this area. The media, at this point are not going to call it as they see it, IMO they are being directing from a higher level as far as Y2K coverage and we can expect this to continue throughout next year.

We have several critical area's that could cause severe issues for us all. Power, Telecomm., Transportation, Food/Water and Energy. Does anyone think any of these will collapse and if so, what makes you think that? Please respond and good luck to all.

-- Rich (Rluck@aol.com), November 17, 1999

Answers

Rich,

Hello! I believe our weakest link is foreign oil - too much depends on it being delivered/produced on time. Oil is the lynchpin for all other industries, without it, our society's way of life is severely impacted.

Why do I think oil will be impacted? Please see my earlier post today - the Senate reports that we import 55% of our oil, and 29% of the imports are at medium to high risk of glitches (Venezuela and Saudia Arabia). Of course, it's all dependent upon how many critical systems are effected and how quickly they can be corrected.

Yes, Y2K can be fixed, and WILL be fixed too, though it will take some time and perhaps some personal sacrifices to get through it.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), November 17, 1999.

I suspect that things will fall apart gradually over the course of several weeks, and NOT all at once at midnight, the way people seem to expect.

More like cancer than a heart attack, but just as deadly.

-- not looking (forward@to.it), November 17, 1999.

If you want a cross-section of opinions on various vulnerabilities, start with the Washington DC Y2k Org survey.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), November 17, 1999.

I very much doubt any of those things will "collapse". There is alot of room between the incredibly high level of performance they operate at now and collapse.

What might collapse is faith in the banks, or the stock market. Property values might collapse. Prices of fuel and food might sky- rocket. A person would have to be willfully blind not to see those possibilities.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), November 17, 1999.

For a synopsis of how I personally expect it all to play out, try this article (is a direct link to an article on my site):

http://www.y2ksafeminnesota.com/introduction.htm

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), November 17, 1999.

Delays, delays, delays. Know how to make a pencil? There are a LOT of people involved, most of whom are running on a JIT basis. If any one of them has a problem, then the pencils stop flowing for a while.

Oh, I know, most businesses aren't run by idiots. Most of them WILL have fixed their problems, and they will be ready to find alternative suppliers. Most, not all. Suppliers have problems all the time, and under normal circumstances, when a company fails to deliver, its customers just move to another supplier. But there's generally some warning that the supplier is in trouble, and inevitable knock-on delay as the customer alters their working practices to deal with the new supply arrangements.

The most likely result is that there will be a short term undersupply problem: there will be food on the shelves, but Joe Blow might not be able to buy his first choice of wide screen TV in mid January.

What follows? Inflation, loss of consumer confidence, stock market rollercoasters? It'll all probably shake itself out in the end as suppliers expand to fill the spaces left by their non-compliant rivals. Computer memory prices more than doubled after the Tiawanese earthquakes, but the thing is, there was never QUITE an actual shortage of memory (although it's still damn close), just a sudden lack of oversupply. There's quite a bit of slack in most markets.

So, it'll PROBABLY be OK. But if enough supply chains stutter at the same time, maybe, just maybe, enough global businesses will close their doors that we'll see a depression that makes the 1930's look like a blip. Probably not, but MAYBE.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 18, 1999.

POLLIES HAVE CRYSTAL BALLS SO THEY FEARLESSLY RISK FAMILY AND FORTUNE ....however....

....playing "cool prophets" will not save one pollyanna.

Doomers are human they study facts and protect their families.

We are all prepared to be wrong... we hope in a miracle. How about you pollies? Are you prepared to be wrong?

A BIG -VERY BIG Washington insider is now advertising on the VENTURE CAPITAL page of www.siliconvalley.com A color cube rotates with a Y2K message..."CLICK" on that cube - carefully explore. Check the win win reality of smart preparations. Dont be losers!

The General

-- General Facts (General@Washington.Facts), November 18, 1999.

POLLIES HAVE CRYSTAL BALLS SO THEY FEARLESSLY RISK FAMILY AND FORTUNE ....however....

....playing "cool prophets" will not save one.

Doomers are human they study facts and protect their families.

We are all prepared to be wrong... we hope in amiracle. How about you pollies? Are you prepared to be wrong?

A BIG -VERY BIG Washington insider is now advertising on the VENTURE CAPITAL page of www.siliconvalley.com A color cube rotates with a Y2K message..."CLICK" on that cube - carefully explore. Check the win win reality of smart preparations. Dont be losers!

The General

-- General Facts (General@Washington.Facts), November 18, 1999.