One of the things which occurs in petroleum is a constant time shift. For instance when talking futures markets, one frequently talks about the first nearby. When they say this, they mean the front month contract which is currently trading. That contract is an agreement to buy or sell x number of barrels at some time in the future.

For instance the last day of trading on Nymex to transact December futures for Gasoline is Nov 30, and the last day for Dec crude is Nov 19th. A few days after each contract expiration, some physical swapping occurs, but suffice it to say in oil, one always thinks ahead.

Needless to say, pipelines must act the same, they must plan thier deliveries way in advance to ensure orderly activities when the product moves. These are called nominations to the pipeline. You will see in the article below that folks in the industry are starting to pay attention, as there is a lot of interest in the last cycle before the period when all pipelines are going to go dormant for an 8 or so hour period. This interest will become quite intense as we get closer to the actual time period. My guess is that everyone's gonna wanna be at tanktops on product. This will make demand for the last cycle intense. I'm also guessing that the gasoline panic will be in full bloom by that timeframe so this "shutdown" is gonna create a real burp in the supply demand balance for a while. You see, as we roll to 00 and there are at least "SOME" failures, the panic will become more intense. Expect the great gas panic to last at least 2 weeks even if there are no problems.

Again, this section is from OPIS which is not freely available on the web. It is a pay per view.

This snip is from todays and is for educational and research purposes only:

FEEDSTOCKS: Unseasonably high gasoline demand, and worries about distribution and supply ahead of the Y2K, could have a major impact on the Gulf Coast 70/30 split in coming weeks. If you have a 1999 calendar handy, you may want to circle the last week of November and the first week of December. That period may well mark the beginning of the first pre-Y2K feeding frenzy in spot markets. Last week's sudden surge in Gulf Coast gasoline prices sparked an interesting theory: namely, that suppliers were trying to procure gasoline on one of the last Colonial Pipeline cycles that will deliver gasoline into key markets in time for pre-Y2K distribution. It's an interesting premise, since a corollary to the theory holds that Gulf Coast markets could see a "Y2K rally" well before the end of December. Shippers stress that the "last train" to Y2K gasoline distribution has not yet left the station, but the departure date is fast approaching. Schedulers at two of the major products pipelines, the Colonial and the Explorer, say gasoline on the back 34th cycle probably reflects the last position where motor fuel can prudently be expected to hit service stations before year's end. The Colonial Pipeline's Back 34th scheduling date for regular unleaded gasoline had not been firmly set as of press time, but lifting is expected to be around December 7. The Explorer Pipeline's back 34th cycle calls for lifting Gulf Coast product around December 10. The big question is whether pipeline gasoline prices may spike relative to NYMEX. Early indications are that they will. "We have seen what is an unusually large amount of interest in the 34th cycle, this at a time when forward cycles of gasoline have not generated a lot of interest," said Tom Knight, a trader at Simar Oil

SNIP

The colonial pipeline runs from the Gulf Coast up through Mid Atlantic and into Atlantic markets. This is one of the biggest. These guys are identifying the fact that this draw is gonna suck gas up the pipe from the Gulf due to the level of interest.

BTW, my friends information on Saddam Hussein appears to be correct. Note that he was hinting at delivery interruptions for crude. By the time the meeting rolls around, he'll flat out refuse to deliver squat for a while. This will take a lot of crude bbls off the market, make the saudis a little richer, and screw our economy in a most inflationary way. Keep prepping. You don't have much time. Anyone notice crude was up a touch today after brent opened down this morning? That's a strong signal kids.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 12, 1999

Answers

Oops a little pipeline faux pas, I don't do products much, mostly crude. The explorer is gonna suck gas up the pipe to padd 11, and the mid atlantic, the Colonial is gonna suck gas down the pipe. Sorry for the confusion.

Either way it's gonna suck, pun intended.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 12, 1999.

As usual excellent read, thank you Gordon.

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

Thanks. This gives us a better handle on timetable for "last minute" gasoline purchases.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), November 12, 1999.

Thanks Gordon for the heads up! Yeah I noticed crude was up. What's the explanation for the Dow rising despite the increase in crude?

-- luann (flataufm@hutchtel.net), November 12, 1999.

The Dow was up due to the non-stop excessive credit over the last few years combined with a desire on the part of the FED to keep the bubble spinning and avoid a global economic collapse. This is being achieved through blatant manipulation of all govt. economic statistics combined with a non-stop propaganda campaign which plays upon peoples base instincts such as greed. The president signed the repeal of the Glass Steagal today. He managed to get on TV for a while to really put the icing on the cake and then made a comment about not preparing or hiding from Y2K.

Bill Clinton is a coward, liar, rapist, thief and traitor.

Wake up out there people, you're being lied to again by Billy. This time it could get you hurt. It's not about some chick he did or didn't score with, it's not about how much money he took from the Tongs, it's about allowing innocent people to get hurt because he doesn't want to take the blame. Disgusting.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 12, 1999.

Thanks Gordon. Keep it comming.

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), November 12, 1999.

Thanks Gordon, I appreciate your insight in this area. It's only because of people like you and the information they bring that I continue to frequent this forum.

-- Nabi (nabi7@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.