The Nasdaq is at about 3200. Another record high. I thought we were going to have a crash. I'm confused. Doom and gloom or BITR? Many just don't see anything like the scenario painted here coming true. At what point do you just have to realize that nothing is going to happen?

-- jq public (jqpublic@usa.com), November 11, 1999

Answers

It will not take Y2K to burst this bubble, we just have an abundance of idiots with money for the time being. Sheep get their news from TV, TV says no problem, as long as sheep believe it will go up. People will continue to shovel good money after bad until their are no more idiots with money to put in. Then the quick and the smart will wind up with the money, and the sheep will wind up fleeced again. The masses have no memory. 1929-1945, 1960-65, 1973-1977, 1987, 2000- ? Nothing changes except the names of the fleeced.

-- goldbug (goldbug@mint.com), November 11, 1999.

I agreed with you 100%, jq. You are confused.

But seriously, nobody can predict the future.

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), November 11, 1999.

J.Q.P;

Please ignore those iceburgs in the water, there is nothing to worry about.

(Engine ROOM: FULL RAMMING SPEED!!)

There is nothing that can harm you, although it does depend on what the meaning of the word is is.

-- Bill Clintone (ThePrez@witehose.gov), November 11, 1999.

The fat lady's contract calls for a performance early next year. Any practice runs are her own business. She has not yet said how long her performance will last.

Hold your horses, we are all awaiting the show with bated breath.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), November 11, 1999.

Is that the same Klinton with a K?

-- jq public (jqpublic@usa.com), November 11, 1999.

No need to be confused. The Federal Reserve is doing its best right now to make sure that the "financial sphere" has enough money. It looks as if fear of problems isn't going to affect the stock market. That could change, though, when the general public becomes aware of actual Y2K failures. (January?)

Remarks by Alan Greenspan from September 17th:

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/BoardDocs/speeches/1999/19990917.htm

[snip]

While the evidence of precautionary inventory hedging to date is mixed, in the financial sphere, borrowers and lenders are clearly taking steps to build liquid assets and reduce their reliance on credit markets around the end of the year. This is reflected in a noticeable rise in deposit and commercial paper rates for funding that would be outstanding over year's end. Many corporate treasurers have moved forward their debt offerings to avoid any chance of a dearth of credit availability in the fourth quarter or difficulties funding short-term liabilities. The Century Date Change Special Liquidity Facility of the discount window that was approved by the Federal Reserve Board in July and the contingency actions of the Federal Open Market Committee announced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on September 8 should help to ensure an ample supply of liquidity and relieve funding pressures.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 11, 1999.

There's always a greater fool.....until there isn't.

-- (sockittome@greater.fool), November 11, 1999.

I think all trading should be halted globally until the end of April.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 11, 1999.

>> What's up? <<

Excess liquidity is still sloshing around in the system. The Fed injected a lot of money into the economy during the past year. A lot of it is finding its way into the stock market, much of it in highly leveraged positions.

Any number of fundamental changes in the economy could send the stock market into the blind staggers. It appeared that the dollar's slide against the yen was going to do it in late September, but the dollar stabilized.

>> At what point do you just have to realize that nothing is going to happen? <<

This is a forward-looking statement... past performance is no indicator of future results ... as you have probably read dozens of times in prospectuses and financial disclosure statements. Without it penetrating any deeper than a rain shower on a desert.

I have also made some forward-looking statements both in this reply and in others. I usually give both my reasons and my conclusions. I also tend to qualify my predictions because I know I am fallible.

But do notice one thing. Your optimism appears to be based on nothing more than a blind projection of the present trend into the future, without any sound understanding of how the economy or the market works. You could be right, but doesn't this seem a bit weak to put much weight on?

I'm curious. WHY do you say "that nothing is going to happen"? Take as long as you like to amswer.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), November 11, 1999.

Its called momentum investing (trading). Buy what's going up.

-- gary (thetrendisyour@friend.com), November 11, 1999.

The stock market has nothing whatsoever to do with Y2K so its ups and downs from now until the end of the year may not tell us much. It doesn't matter how much it goes up or down, it's a separate issue from Y2K.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), November 11, 1999.

The NASDAQ is afflicted with "irrational exuberance", that wonderful dreamy sense of building phenomenal wealth for the future, ready to harvest when golden stock fruits dangle from their delicate dividends.

But the approaching Storm of Panic with its High Interest Wind Chill Factor will destroy the harvest.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), November 11, 1999.

Big deal. Did it occur to you that every time it goes up one point higher that is a new record? It happens every other day, and then it goes down again, so what??

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 11, 1999.

Once again, a nail biter of a book that explains this perfectly is J. K. Gailbraith's, "The Great Crash of 1929". Like "The Titanic", we know the ending but it's still a great read.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 12, 1999.

Maybe I'm old-fashioned when it comes to investing, but I think people are not looking at P/E ratios. LotsI know of a few folks who bought stock in companies, and they don't even know what the company produces or services they offer, let alone know who's on the managment team, etc.

-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), November 12, 1999.

.com mania, pure and simple. The wigs are telling people that P/E ratios don't matter or are archaic... And the rank and file sheeple keep on buying... How many of these "investors" will get slammed when the "bell tolls"???

It will not be pretty...

snoozin' on the couch... (BAD DOG!!!)

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), November 12, 1999.

Tulip Bulbs anyone?

-- nervous nellie (nervous@nellie.com), November 12, 1999.