How long before help shows up for JQP after the lights go out?

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I have done a lot of wondering about JQP and his expectations for the gubmint to care for he and his. Lets say that the power does go down all over the nation and it doesn't come right back up. 3 days later the power is still down. Out where I live in the National Forest, there are tons of retirees back in the woods that don't have a clue. They will expect Red Cross or Salvation Army to show up and feed, water and potty them. We all have wells out here and if the power goes down so do the wells. How long do you think before the relief agencies can get to the smaller cities and surrounding areas? And is this AFTER they have put the fires out and fed and calmed the masses in the cities? People will expect the RC to be set up and running within 24 hours...after all,they are ALWAYS there after the hurricanes!! And if the RC and the SA never turn up at all, what and when will the city and county do? Anything?? I really don't expect to see any help in my area except perhaps from some of the local churches. But I would guess that they will contain their help to parishoners. Will the RC haul water and food and showers into central points? How are the elderly supposed to get to those points? We can't feed everyone, but we have had a new 150 ft well put in with a deep well hand pump. Thats our contribution to our neighborhood. I am hoping it is also our safety net from invaders. I am hoping that the neighborhood will come to our defense if necessary ....or at least declare us off limits for looting. Probably pie in the sky dream....sigh....Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), November 10, 1999

Answers

Your hand pumped well could be a "life-saving" device. Be ready for many grateful visitors. Have you got any children's 'little red wagons', you know the four wheel toy wagons with a handle? Two or three of those will go a long way to help others haul their water. You might just check the neighborhood to be sure several are available to be borrowed (just in case).

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 10, 1999.

If the outage is local and there aren't too many around, the winter storm/hurricane model is probably a good indicator. If the outages are widespread, then I do not believe it is mathematically possible to help people in any organized fashion. The red cross can substitute for a fully functioning economy. Widespread failure probably is not even within our imaginations. This is shy I think Dale Way always seemed to stop short to slide into optimistic mode right when it looked like he was about to go total doomer -- self defense.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 10, 1999.

Taz, some neighborhoods will go off the deep end and self-destruct in opportunistic outrage before they think.

Some will be even-minded and band together to creatively cope.

There is nowhere near enough resources/personnel to help all who will desperately need help.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 10, 1999.


Taz --

Under the scenario you are posing, what makes anyone think that the 'relief' agencies or their people are going to be in any better shape than JQP? After all, they normally work by staging from an unaffected area into the affected area. Under the 'worst case' scenarios posed by Y2K, I believe that they'd probably have to stage from the moon to follow their normal process.

(And the above assumes that the transport mechanisms haven't gone 'toes up' as well, not to mention the telecomm industry.)

-- just another (another@engineer.com), November 10, 1999.


if the juice goes off nationwide for 3 days the first day will be hell on earth. the second and third days will be indescribable.

-- clayton (ratchetass@hotmail.com), November 10, 1999.


Churches don't open their doors anymore. Floyd came through Fl., we had to evacuate to the West coast, no Church, that I know of, opened any door, for those of us fleeing. The Local Lions club, gave us shelter. What about the Big Baptist city of Jacksonville, didn't see any Churches offering to open their doors. It amazed my sinful eyes.

-- Been there (churchesdon'thelp@anymore.com), November 10, 1999.

Taz;

This is not a knock on you but, it is time we all come to grip with the fact, that if it get's bad, there are not enough organizations or .gov's out there to help out the whole country. People will die, period. Most of the people, living out in the country, have gotten along by themselves before. They WILL, find a way to survive. It is the yuppies, and old, in the cities that will feel the pain of y2k.

Here in the Burgh................

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), November 10, 1999.


Take a look at the Bean Theory by Sally Strackbien. Just type Y2K Kitchen in the search box, and her website will come up.

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), November 10, 1999.

Taz:

In all honesty, I would not expect any help at all.

Not so much due to malevolence or selfishness (though some of that surely will evidence itself) but due to limited resources.

We have been taught all our lives to submit to the government: they are richer, wiser, more influential, etc. than lowly you and me. Add to this the total lack of leadership from your President and you have a nation that is unprepared for disaster.

Just a second here Taz. Here's a thought! Pretend you're the President (though a better one, I'm sure!) and you have full knowledge of the Y2K problem, even to the extent that you have a pretty good idea of short term impacts and long term consequences. Okay?

Even if you really care about the people, if you earnestly warn them all, they would overload the existing "survival infrastructure" and precipitate a panic BEFORE the rollover! Golly, not good eh?

If you don't care about the people, but subscribe to some fuzzy "third way doctrine" with no sense but lots of good feelings, you have no incentive to warn the people.

Anyway you slice it, YOU MUST GAMBLE ON THE Y2K PROBLEM. Warn 'em all and precipitate a panic. Don't warn 'em all and hope it's fixed in time--you come off smelling of roses, right?

WHAT IF YOU LOSE THE GAMBLE? If nothing else, you've bought time...

Moral conclusion: regardless of the cause of the lack of leadership (be it outright malevolence, ignorance or simple incompetence) you should forgive the leadership for being human--and prone to stupidity. It pleases God for us to forgive others and allows Him to forgive us our stupidity too!

Practical conclusion: expect no help. You remain, as everyone here does, on my mind and in my prayers.

God be with you all.

-- Kurt Borzel (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), November 10, 1999.


Just a thought. Imagine that all power in a larger western state was lost for a week. Imagine that the red cross could jump in gear and set up shelters and bring food. Without the power, how would the red cross even distribute information about shelters and stations for help? This is not a knock on the red cross, just an acceptance that they work best in isolated areas for specific problems. People better hope that the grid does stay up and that we do not have the power problems that might happen. If the grid drops for days there will be serious problems.

-- smfdoc (smfdoc@aol.com), November 10, 1999.


Clayton wrote: "If the juice goes off nationwide for 3 days the first day will be hell on earth. the second and third days will be indescribable."

Truer words were never spoken. In the event of a nationwide disaster, people will essentially be on their own, and for the average American that will be a singular experience. I doubt that many would die in those first three days, but much depends on an individual's resourcefulness. Those who wait for help will fare much worse than those who meet and overcome the problem of survival directly, I believe.

-- PKM (.@...), November 10, 1999.


9 MILLION rounds .223 sold by ONE dealer in ONE day in the Mid West.

Just observing contemporary social conditions...either people will be courteous and helpful, or...it's too hideous to contemplate!



-- Z (Z@Z.Z), November 10, 1999.


In the context, I'm pretty sure that Taz's well is not hand- pumped, but depends on an electric pump. And the water table in some wells is so far down that a hand pump won't work, anyway.

Not many storybook wells left any more of the sort where you lean over the stone wall, lower a bucket down on a winch, and haul it up full of water.

All concerned should become familiar with the idea of triage.

This site discusses systemic triage for businesses in connection with Y2K, but this extract applies to crisis situations in general:

In the medical profession there is a concept of Triage. The dictionary defines it as follows; "The sorting and allocation of treatment to patients, especially battle and disaster victims, according to a system of priorities designed to maximize the number of survivors." The idea being, that if there aren't enough medical resources to save everyone, you prioritize to save as many as possible. Setting these types of priorities involves making some very difficult decisions.

At its simplest, during medical triage you sort the casualties into three groups. First, identify those who'll survive if they get no medical treatment. Next, find those who if they get medical treatment, have a good chance of survival. Lastly, those who, even if they get medical treatment, are unlikely to survive.

You then ignore the first and last groups and concentrate all your efforts on those who have a good chance of surviving if you get to them in time.

Like they say, hard decisions.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), November 11, 1999.


Many churches are not in a financial position to help out in a time of disaster. Often, you will see schools opened up to shelter people. And, if a church does open it's doors, they use it as an opportunity to proselytize. It takes man power and money to operate a disaster shelter and it's left up to the parishoners to donate money and time. I have witnessed first hand the operation of a homeless disaster shelter, and there is no way in hell I would ever volunteer again. The best you can do for yourself, is to make sure you nver end up in one.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 11, 1999.

Tom Carry,

I correct you..... Taz's well pump is a 'hand pump'. She is too smart to drill a 150 ft well for use in a year that may or may not be riddled with uncertanty about the electricty supply and make that same well work only if she has elec power.

Have you ever read any of Taz befor? Helloooo? She is not stupid.

-- bulldog (sniffin@around.com), November 11, 1999.



Just a thought. Imagine that all power in a larger western state was lost for a week. Imagine that the red cross could jump in gear and set up shelters and bring food. Without the power, how would the red cross even distribute information about shelters and stations for help?

I can answer that: amateur radio operators using their own emergency power (generators, batteries, solar panels). That's how they always do it in a disaster. Whether there will be enough operators available, I can't say, but I've done everything in my power to increase that number.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), November 11, 1999.


Yes...the well IS hand pumped. The hand pump was more expensive than an electrical pump would be. The well is 150 ft deep and is on the Florida aquafir. You will never pump it dry in your lifetime. The water level is at 40 ft and even then its hard for me to pump. Get about a qt with each stroke. It is a double action pump where it raises water on the both the down and upward strokes.

Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), November 11, 1999.


---my personal preps are to be prepared for..forever. i have enough to carry me through an entire gardening season, and into the next one. water, a hassle but doable. those retirees will be mostly SOL if they've been sitting on their pensioned duffs and watching satellite tv. the more vigorous will go out begging, or even worse, decide to drag out their rifles and go hunting. I'm talking real old geezers now, not used to real hard exertion. Lot of heart attacks, broken limbs, lost in the woods, or even amateur predatory action once they get real desparate. A hungry man has no friends. a hungry man with dependents will turn into a predator, in most cases. I mean HUNGRY. Your values change, even though you may wish them not to. It's just a matter of time. the answer is that there is no easy answer. If we have a 5 or above, and it lasts very long, a WHOLE LOT of people will suffer and die. that's just reality. back in the depression after the 29 crash, over 40% of the population still lived on working family farms or rural, with hand pump wells available, and a lot more low tech ways to live and it STILL was real bad. today, it could be much worse, cataclysmic. Sad, but thems the breaks. I think whomever survives will have a lot better outlook on dependence, family and community, and a lot less reliance on uncle sugar's "checks", the banks, vague "retirement portfolios" and suchlike. Good luck and better skill to all zog

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), November 11, 1999.

9 MILLION rounds .223 sold by ONE dealer in ONE day in the Mid West.

Just observing contemporary social conditions...either people will be courteous and helpful, or...it's too hideous to contemplate!

-------

I suppose you mean by courteous and helpful that I give what I have worked and saved for to help someone who was too busy doing something else to prepare for himself? If so, then I want to know why you think it is a good thing to give of my store to those who would not store? Why do the indolent deserve my help? And if they try, as I would expect them to, to take what is mine because I have it and they don't, why should I not use 9 million rounds of .223 or whatever else it takes to defend me and mine?

George

-- George Valentine (georgevalentine@usa.net), November 11, 1999.


I am a little more than 2 miles from a small Canadian town on a paved county road and during the great ice storm it took 7 days for someone (an army type and a civilian volunteer, if I remember correctly) to come around to see if we were ok or needed anything.

-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), November 11, 1999.

and?????????? Did you need anything John? Don't leave us hanging. I smell a story here that I would love to hear. Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), November 11, 1999.

Taz, sorry, didn't mean to leave you hanging.

No, we didn't really ask for anything, except information about when power would be restored. Ontario Hydro was totally useless at providing status information and we hadn't seen a hydro truck on our road at all. They only had an ordinary 4 wheel drive vehicle and I am sure very limited supplies with them. I think they were mainly looking for stranded old people without heat, etc to try to talk them into going to a shelter.

Since we had a wood stove and had managed to pick up water in town daily and had arranged to borrow a couple of car batteries for lighting, we were coping reasonably well. They did tell us that we could go to the fire department for water and the shelter for showers - Wonder why? LOL

ASAP, I am going to try to write down what we experienced, especially our rollercoaster emotions during the ordeal, so that others will know what to expect and watch for during Y2K.

-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), November 12, 1999.


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