Safeway doesn't "Plan" to limit purchases...

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And the banks don't "plan" to limit withdrawls...

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Focus: Y2K

Eat, don't stew So say those in the food chain -- producers, warehousers and retailers ... But even they stew a bit over the prospects of people hoarding food and the possibility that the juice will go out come 12:00:01 a.m. Jan. 1 Barbara Marquand The food industry is confident that it has squashed the Y2K millennium bug, and it predicts that business will go on as usual Jan. 1.

Producers, distributors and retailers, though, hedge their optimism. They note at the same time that some things -- such as the power supply -- are beyond their control.

A bigger question in the minds of those in the food business is: What will people do between now and then? As 2000 nears, will a sizable number get worried that malfunctioning computers and economic chaos are imminent, and stockpile food?

"It's the one variable you have no control over," said David Heylen, spokesman for the Sacramento-based California Grocers Association.

Allaying a panic: But speaking out about Y2K is one way to exert some influence on that variable.

Grocery manufacturers, food processors and stores are working hard to get the word out that they're prepared. The last thing they want is for people to panic and make a run on stores.

"We want to make sure the wrong message doesn't get sent out to consumers," Heylen said.

Grocery store chains and manufacturers are providing Y2K information on their Web sites for consumers, and trade groups have been steadily reporting the industry's progress on Y2K.

Overall the industry is expressing confidence. The Food Supply Working Group, chaired by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, concluded that the food industry is well prepared for Y2K. It predicted that disruptions to the food supply, if any, would be minimal and resolved within a few days.

Almost 90 percent of firms making food, beverages and consumer products, meanwhile, have finished the final stage of identifying, fixing and testing systems effected by Y2K, according to a new survey by the Grocery Manufacturers of America and Ernst & Young, LLP. And 97 percent of respondents said they were very confident or confident their supply chain would be able to fill, ship and invoice orders without disruption Jan. 1.

Raley's is 100 percent Y2K-compliant for all its supermarkets, said Caroline White, spokeswoman for the West Sacramento-based chain. That means all of the company's accounting systems, scanners, refrigeration equipment and trucks should be operating properly Jan. 1, assuming nothing goes awry with anything outside the company's control, such as the power supply.

"We expect business as usual," White said.

Normality or panic? Whether customers are as sanguine as White is one of the food industry's top concerns, according to the Food Marketing Institute. That's because hoarding could create isolated shortages.

Grocery stores are telling customers through their Web sites that they needn't stockpile food. Consumers, they say, should use common sense and have on hand a few days' supply of basic items, just as they would at any time in case of a temporary emergency, such as illness or a winter storm.

So far Raley's hasn't detected any unusual purchasing patterns by customers, White said. Heylen of the California Grocers Association said he hasn't heard of any stockpiling patterns surfacing in California.

Grocery chains and manufacturers are monitoring product movement closely. Safeway Inc. reports that it has systems that can promptly detect any increase or decrease in buying. If buying spikes for certain goods, the chain will be able increase orders to suppliers to meet increases in demand promptly. Safeway said it doesn't plan to place any limits on total purchases.

Earthgrains, which has a bakery in Sacramento, also will monitor buying habits, as it always does. "We're very tapped into data," said Matt Hall, spokesman for the St. Louis company.

Monitoring the distribution link: Earthgrains' route drivers enter data on hand-held computers every time they go into stores, and the company shares electronic information with certain grocers. The bread maker can boost production in response to increasing demand, Hall said.

Grocery chains report they expect their usual buying, warehousing and distribution to meet customers' needs. They are not planning to purchase extra supplies. Grocery stores normally have on hand a 30- to 60-day supply of goods anyway, said Heylen of the California Grocers Association.

Earthgrains will start the New Year with fully replenished ingredients, Hall said, but it doesn't plan to stockpile supplies either.

Not expecting to rot: For some suppliers stockpiling isn't even a question. Produce suppliers aren't worried about consumer overbuying because their goods are perishable.

"There's nothing you can do to get ahead with produce," noted Sonny Pompei of Pompei Produce Co. in Sacramento. His equipment and trucks are immune from the millennium bug, he said, and he's confident that shipments will come in as usual.

"I'm going to come in on Monday morning (Jan. 3) and place orders," he said.

Daniel Chan, president of General Produce Co. Ltd. in Sacramento, is likewise confident that business will go relatively smoothly for the industry.

"My feeling is there will be some glitches, but they'll be localized," he said. General Produce supplies independent grocery stores, restaurants, hospitals and schools. To ward off potential problems from the millennium bug, it upgraded computers, telephone, voice mail and cold storage refrigeration systems. The shippers and growers that supply his company are large players, and Chan is confident that they have Y2K properly managed.

Uncontrollable woes and contingencies: Of course there are some things over which the industry has no control, such as the power grid. Chan said his company has a generator for backup power for lights and computer systems. And in the winter it could get along for a while without power for cold storage. Even in the summer, the warehouse temperature varies by only a few degrees when there's a power outage.

Grocery stores, meanwhile, are making contingency plans in case anything goes awry Jan 1. Key staff people at Raley's headquarters will work over the holiday weekend, White said. Computer experts will be on hand to deal with any glitches, and White will be there to answer media calls, for instance.

"We'll be ready to put out any fires that come up, but we don't expect any," she said.

Based on its monitoring of the major power suppliers, the grocery industry doesn't expect widespread power outages. But grocery chains report they have contingency plans in place to continue operating.

"When you look at any disaster, natural or manmade, the grocery industry has always done a really good job responding," said Heylen of the California Grocers Association. "We have a good track record."

Hall said Earthgrains has contingency plans for a variety of scenarios. If the Sacramento bakery couldn't bake bread, for instance, bakeries in Oakland and Stockton could supply the area. Or if the software system for fulfilling orders crashed, the company could revert to a manual system.

"We know bread will be available before, during and after the first of the year," Hall said.



-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), November 08, 1999

Answers

Who would purchase/stockpile goods from Raley's? They are the most expensive store around, once in a while they'll have a lost-leader sale and a limit. Albertson's 5 lb Gold Medal Flour is 69 cents, C&H sugar $1.49 5 lb. brown sugar 50 cents, at Raley's, $1.69 for flour and 99 cents for brown sugar.. WareMart and Foods 4 Less will have the same items at the same price with no limits. The only items I purchase at Raley's is their produce, it's the best around. I bet if you were to ask WareMart or Costco if they have seen stockpiling buyers, the answer will be yes because they stock bulk foods in 25 lb. bags (mash potatoes, hash browns, powder milk, etc).

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 08, 1999.

Raley`s and Safeways see no purchase spikes because we are smart and buy elseware at better prices.DA

-- me (y2kme1@hotmail.com), November 08, 1999.

Safeway a few weeks back had Staggs Chili 12/$6, S&W canned fruit 12/$6, tuna 4/$1, canned refried beans $12/$6...haven't seen a sale like that since. Food prices are climbing, I am glad I bought mine when I did.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 08, 1999.

They are outright liars. I live in CA and when I go to the grocery store I often see obvious signs of stockpilers.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 08, 1999.

I live in a small community and we have 2 choices for grocery shopping, one of which is Safeway. As of 2 weeks ago, they have instituted unusual 3 cans per person limits on canned sale items. I have been shopping here for years and have never seen this kind of limiting. Of course, if it is only a one time deal, then I will report back. My guess is that every time they have a sale on canned food, they get wiped out. At least, that's the way it looks on the shelves after a weekend where items were on sale at a very good price. This only occurs with nonperishable stockable type items.

We shall see.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), November 08, 1999.



And let's mention that Safeway and Rite Aide have those lovely 'cards' that you must fill out with your personal information in order to purchase those 'specials' they have, thereby, keeping track of absolutely everything you purchase along with those specials and attaches that information to your name!! I personally avoid any store requiring a 'card' to take advantage of their specials, so only use the 'card' for separate purchases of specials. I guess I am just paranoid, don't want the food police comin' to my house......

-- Sammie (sammiex0@hotmail.com), November 08, 1999.

The Safeway in my town, 45 min north of San Francisco sort of gets it. They recently had a sale on their house brand veggies - 24 for $6. Limit 24. They had hundreds of cans stacked on the shelves, but no whole cases of 24 for people like me to take home. Even went to the store manager to see if they had any in back, but he told me as soon as a box is empty in his store it's broken down and put in the bailer. Ended up coming back with my own box so I didn't have to deal with loose cans. Why advertise case lots if they don't have cases?

-- shopper (sorry@work.now), November 08, 1999.

Sammy-

Must be something in the water here... I keep "forgetting" my card once I get to the checker. They always have one there. They wouldn't hold up the line to refuse me a discount.

-- secret shopper (sorry@work.now), November 08, 1999.


Sammie,

That's why I don't do any significant shopping with a club card, buy at stores that don't track their customers, only pay cash when I'm storing up, made most of my major grain purchases over a year ago (cash). And who said that the info on my club card is accurate anyway ? You really can't be too careful.

BTW (responding to the orig. report) that's pure BS about grocery stores having 30 to 60 days supplies. Three to six days is more accurate. There are no "back rooms" anymore. The stock is on the floor, for the most part, and turns over about every three days. OK, maybe not the canned snails and jalapeno jelly. Grocery chains are the ultimate JIT operations. Warehouses are automated. Their software may be remediated, but if the power is out, they're out of luck (unless they all have generators and lots of fuel.)

I'd also like to know how much flour and other baking supplies the bakery above has on hand at any one time. And how much they rely on JIT.

-- Justa (shop@holic.com), November 08, 1999.


The only store around now that has those "club savings cards" is Safeway. Albertsons/Lucky's just did away with them. When you turn your card in, Lucky's donates money to breast cancer research. If you don't want Safeway to know who you are, fill out a phoney name on the card request form.....use your dogs name if you want to.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 08, 1999.


If you want to buy with a club card, just use a bogus name. This can be fun....be creative "Would you like a hand out with that Mr. Zyggrbloyu?

I've seen nothing other normal sale limits on anything at Safeway so far (bring my own boxes, off-load bags into them and save the bags). In their defense I've gotten some very good deals at Safeway (Bumble Bee Tuna 4/$1, Stagg Chili 2/$1) and Raleys (18oz Skippy $1.29, applesauce 3/$1, Rosarita Beans 3/$1) that beat anything Costco offers. Costco get their fair share of my money too...$600 last week.

Stockpilers? I "overhear" stuff (not that I'm nosy...) like the young couple in the rice section loading all the brown rice...told them the brown could go rancid ("Oh, thanks we didn't know"). The guy in the Costco checkout line who's flat load looked much like mine and said "58 days" and smiled....Yeah, some folks are prepping.

-- Don Kulha (dkulha@vom.com), November 08, 1999.


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