Oil - can we tell if the work has been done?

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It's late, but was just thinking in broad strokes.

If we could determine that the number of embedded chips in a refinery is say, 10,000, then couldn't the cost of checking them be derived? Multiply that cost, by the number of refineries/pipelines, or whatever the company has.

Now their 10-Q Report should show their estimated Y2K budget. Do those two figures seem even close?

I would bet, that the cost of really checking (not going by Manufacturer's Word), is enormously larger.

But, if we could do this, it would seem that we could easily see if their plan is FOF.

To me, if it is, I can expect only the worst.

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), November 08, 1999

Answers

Gregg,

You must have missed some earlier posts... the plan in the oil industry is to fix on failure with respect to the embedded systems. It would be far too expensive to approach it any other way.

Here is an excerpt from the Chevron 10-Q:

Because of the scope of its operations, the company believes it is impractical to eliminate all potential Year 2000 problems before they arise. As a result, the company expects that for non-mission-critical items and those mission-critical items for which temporary "work arounds" have been developed, Year 2000 remedial efforts will continue into the year 2000. In the normal course of business, the company has developed and maintains extensive contingency plans to respond to equipment failures, emergencies and business interruptions. However, contingency planning for Year 2000 issues is complicated by the possibility of multiple and simultaneous incidents, which could significantly impede efforts to respond to emergencies and resume normal business functions. Such incidents may be outside of the company's control, for example, if mission-critical third parties do not successfully address their own material Year 2000 problems.

Be prepared for the price of gasoline to skyrocket immediately beginning on January 1, and if they have difficulty replacing these systems, expect to go into maximum rationing mode. If this doesn't scare you enough, read the thread called "oil chat" from a few days ago.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 08, 1999.


Looks like "Death by a thousand cuts" to me, but what do I know.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), November 08, 1999.

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