Readiness Often Left to Honor System

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Readiness Often Left to Honor System

Source: Omaha World-Herald

If Midlands residents and businesses enter the new century without any big computer-related glitches - as many predict - it won't be because of intense scrutiny by leaders and regulators. Only a few of the most critical computer-reliant industries - financial institutions and electric utilities, in particular - are being closely monitored for their year 2000 readiness.

For example, several federal agencies are keeping tabs on whether the Omaha Public Power District and other utilities will be able to overcome the date-recognition glitch that could cause some computers to fail come Jan. 1.

But for other systems - such as those that run grocery store checkouts and those that control the pumps at your neighborhood gas station - there's little more than survey results to indicate that the so-called Y2K bug won't bite.

Community leaders, such as the 30 public- and private-sector members of Omaha's Heartland Year 2000 Coalition, have focused primarily on informing the public. Heartland 2000, for instance, has an Internet site and helped organize a town hall-style meeting in Omaha last month.

Group members are so assured of the region's readiness for Y2K that they do not plan to have any other events.

"We are extremely confident," said Joni Sundquist, spokeswoman for the Nebraska Bankers Association, which belongs to the coalition. "There will be no major problems as a result of Y2K."

But those assessments are based largely on business and government surveys.

To Mike Echols, former director of the Creighton Institute of Information Technology and Management, asking businesses to self- report on their Y2K efforts is similar to "asking your child to grade his own homework. Of course he is not going to give himself a failing grade."

Echols, now chairman of Double E Computer Systems in Omaha, said he thinks that major utility problems will be avoided. But business and industry could be hit hard if supply chains break down.

"My concern is with the supply side of the economy," he said. "The economy is so interdependent that some of these problems will have to show up."

Many businesses have failed to respond to surveys from government agencies and trade groups, a fact that makes Echols suspicious about their readiness.

The National Federation of Independent Business, for instance, has reported that as many as 850,000 small businesses will not be ready for the year 2000.

Echols also fears that many foreign countries will have computer problems that will send shock waves through the U.S. economy.

However, there are organized attempts to monitor the progress of Y2K fixes in Nebraska, though they target selected industries or levels of government. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, for instance, is surveying state governments to see how they are preparing for the date change.

"The sound Y2K transition for all of our states - Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska - is a credit to the sound, advanced planning the state (governments) have done to be ready for the millennium, " said John Miller, the agency's regional director.

Despite the lack of comprehensive Y2K fact-checking, Nebraska experts say the state should be ready for Jan. 1.

"We have not found any major glitches," said Fran Laden, co- chairman of the Governor's Y2K Council. "No one is saying we are going to totally crash and it will be the end of the world as we know it."

But Laden admits that the council's conclusions are not based on close regulatory scrutiny.

"I would hate to comment on whether remediation efforts should have been something other than self-reporting," he said. "You are talking about the whole infrastructure of the United States, and it's a pretty big job no matter how you do it."

Although Laden and other government officials are confident, they are developing contingency plans in case computers malfunction.

Douglas County officials, for example, will gather in an emergency operations center in the basement of Omaha's City Hall to monitor events on New Year's Eve. Among other things, public shelters will be ready in case the power goes out and people need a warm place to spend the night.

Many Midlands businesses also have plans to deal with Y2K-related fallout, including arrangements for backup generators and extra staff.

The biggest unknown for the banking industry is whether customers will withdraw extra cash on or near New Year's Eve, said Bill Henry, executive vice president with First National Bank of Omaha. The bank is preparing for a crush of last-minute customers.

"We don't know if there will be 10 or 400,000 people," he said. "But we'll be prepared."

Other Nebraska experts are accepting assurances from industry and government leaders that computers will work on Jan. 1.

"I have no reason not to believe the assurances," said Jay Wilkinson, who helped start the Nebraska Coalition for Millennium Compliance, a group of 50 Nebraska businesses that share information about Y2K. "I've traveled around the country, and I have no reason to believe that anybody is covering anything up."

In fact, Wilkinson's comfort level has increased in the past few years: "In 1996 and 1997, I did believe there would be widespread problems with small businesses, but as we get closer to the year 2000, that concern is waning. There has been enough awareness raised that those small-business owners, for the most part, understand what they have to do."

Wilkinson, president of AlphaGraphics of Nebraska, a printing and technology firm, said there's another factor motivating businesses to correct any computer problems: They can't afford to risk damaging their reputations and profits.

"If executives do not do their jobs," he said, "they are going to be in serious trouble."

Publication date: Oct 25, 1999 ) 1999, NewsReal, Inc.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Tminus55&counting.down), November 06, 1999

Answers

Uncle Bob: I would feel a little uneasy if I lived in Omaha. FWIW the Dallas Morning News in the Business section today FINALLY published an article by some doctors that were anything but positive about getting remediation done on time. They even published the government report showing the medical profession in general as being in a very bad way viz 1/1/00. Sure hope we are wrong and the pollies are right. However, we continue to prep for a 6 month turbulence.

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), November 06, 1999.

Well, I shudder to think of a cabinet-level "Department of Compliance" armed with an encyclopedia of regulations, most of them arbitrary, and a huge army of low-paid "compliance checkers", most of them incompetent. All backed by the force of law. Such a "cure" would only serve to make the disease far worse than it was, and eventually morph into the enforcement arm of a planned economy. Ugh.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 06, 1999.

"You are talking about the whole infrastructure of the United States, and it's a pretty big job no matter how you do it."

Another understatement :-)

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 06, 1999.


<>

This singular statement divides the Y2K "world". If you agree with it, you're probably preparing. If you don't, you're probably sitting on your ass, thinking everything will be peachy. This is the idea pollies either don't get, or want to ignore.

-- cavscout (knowsth@tpeoplewill.lie), November 06, 1999.


To Mike Echols, former director of the Creighton Institute of Information Technology and Management, asking businesses to self- report on their Y2K efforts is similar to "asking your child to grade his own homework. Of course he is not going to give himself a failing grade."

-- cavscout (stupid@com.puter), November 06, 1999.


put the second post over the first, and you'll get my meaning....I think. Sorry for the confusion.

-- cavscout (notenough@coffee.yet), November 06, 1999.

cavscout:

Can you suggest an alternative to self-reporting? What would it be? Government enforcement? Mandatory IV&V? Who would do it? Those would be lucrative contracts for someone. Who would decide who gets them, or who's qualified? Who would pay for it? If IV&V results were challenged, what procedure might be used to resolve challenges?

It's one thing to recognize that self-reporting has major flaws. It's quite another to propose workable alternatives that don't become political footballs.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), November 06, 1999.


LOL...I glanced at the title and thought it said 'Readiness often left to Homer Simpson'

Probably nearer the truth though...

-- a programmer (a@programmer.com), November 06, 1999.


Flint-

All good questions, and I'm not arrogant enough to think I know all the answers. What I do know is that the current administration has dropped the ball on this one, big time. I think that even the most hardened polly can agree on that.

It is, of course, a moot point at this late date, but I think that if Clinton had had any guts in 1995 or '96, he would have addressed the problem head on, and we wouldn't be in such a big mess now. Some kind of monitoring program along with assistance for small and medium size businesses could have been set up, along with ANY kind of a public awareness campaign besides John Koskinen on C-SPAN saying don'tworrybehappy over and over.

That is the root of the problem; the federal government has tried to downplay the seriousness of Y2K, and it has largely worked. Most small businesses don't realize that they are in trouble, so they aren't doing anything about it. If they had been told the truth 3-4 years ago, less of them would go out of business next year. If the majority of business owners recognize a problem, they will make serious efforts toward fixing it, and then self-reporting is much more reliable. Unfortunately, a large percentage of businesses have done nothing, so it makes one skeptical about reports of compliance.

As for the government agencies, a much stricter system of reporting could and should have been implemented. They owe that much to the public.

-- cavscout (notmuch@time.left), November 06, 1999.


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