What goes around comes around trolls.

One day you will find this to be true.

In the meantime, continue as you were.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999

Answers

Andy does senseless haiku...film at 11.

Hey there ol' bud...how yew been?

Yer little feathered friend,

-----

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), October 30, 1999.

Andy,

Where ya been mate? Hey, have you heard about our new IRS contingency plan for manual refunds? We figured out it will take them at least 20 years just to process all the refunds for the 1999 tax year.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), October 30, 1999.

Got pencil sharpeners?

What a joke. Good riddance to the IRS.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

Hi Andy,

Looks like "the other Cory" has been over at deBUNGy for a few days, shaking things up. What the heck, it's late in the 4th quarter, let's give them their say, here, on a real forum. I say let's take 'em on! I say let's kick some ass!

Wish I had the time... This could be fun... Maybe I'll get a few licks (did I spell that right?) in here and there...

Give 'em hell!!!

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 30, 1999.

Chicken me old slapper,

That wasn't haiku that was f#*ku :)

Enjoy your daily troll.

As you were.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

Hi Sysman,

like the new tag,

but shouldn't it be

Tick... Tock... <:0000=

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

Yes,

if the IRS bites the dust, all good Americans everywhere will be crying crocodile tears...

BIG WOOP

If I don't get a refund next year; as opposed to the possibility of the whole IRS mechanism going down, I'm worried about THAT? No taxes forever? Worried about THAT? Get real.

That would be sheer bliss. We should be so fortunate.

But it'll never happen. And you guys know that.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), October 30, 1999.

Andy Ol' Bean,

Sorry you don't understand the Japanese, ol' bud.

Anata wa boketemas.

(what is it about these Brits? Git, Andy...)

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), October 30, 1999.

I just really get tickled at how cocksure you guys are, in spite of all evidence showing how wrong you are. The 'meme' thing really is accurate; you can't even see that you're infected with a way of thinking that has blinded you, and that has impaired your powers of logical thinking.

I'm living right in the middle of something that proves your way of thinking wrong, all by itself. Yet you continue with your deluded self-congratulatory back-slapping.

Hope this forum's still up about Jan. 10th; I'll be most interested in your opinions and perceptions at that time.

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), October 30, 1999.

Chicken,

I can assure you that my opinion will not have changed a bit by Jan. 10. There will undoubtedly be some disruptions as I expect, but anyone who tries to tell you that they know how many disruptions there will be is either a liar or a fool.

The more profound effects of Y2K will more than likely take some time to gradually build. Check back around June or so, when unemployment and bankruptcies will be pushing the world into dire economic straits.

January 10? That's kind of a "Chicken"-shit copout, isn't it?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), October 30, 1999.

Whats this about,

January the 10th,

Are Chicken and Decker related?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

Yo,Dix's are for chix's,

I am truly sorry for bad times ya'all are going through down there. Hope it soon get's cleared up. That said, it has shown the rest of us how much help the .gov will be incase of a major national emergency. Shades of Andrew. Maybe a little quicker, but not near enough!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), October 30, 1999.

I believe that chicken and decker are JOINED at the hip. hehehe

-- y2k dave (xsdaa111@hotmail.com), October 30, 1999.

Andy, Chicken's been a one-man RSPCA down in the devastated areas of North Carolina, probably still doing relief work. Can you cut him a bit of slack this time? Besides, he hasn't done any of the ram-raiding seen on the forum in the last 24 hours or so.

-- Old Git, who neither negotiates nor converses with forum terrorist-trolls (anon@spamproblems.com), October 30, 1999.

OK

Chicken

I take it all back!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

Andy,

What happened to gold? Why is the NASDAQ at a record high? DOW way up. Gold taking a shit. You are a blathering boob.

-- (troll@troll.com), October 30, 1999.

I'm lathering which boob?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

To the mamary-fixated troll, this is what happened you short-sighted nit-wit!

"So the gold price fell through $300 So what !

The bottom line that we have to remember is why it is up here in the first place, and exactly what there is out there that might suddenly turn it round again. My personal estimate (and hope, for my own career prospects!) is that gold will finish 1999 with a bang, not a whimper. I have been trying to not listen to the bearish droning and whining about the gold price for the last two weeks - as most of it is coming from self-interested bullion dealers and even gold mining companies, for one major reason: risk.

The gold price's move north of $300 caused a lot of problems in an industry self-absorbed and fatalistic, used to big contangoes and hedging as a means to profiteering in a bear market, and gold mining as a sideshow. The hedge books of companies in some cases were bigger than their market caps, and represented big unrealized potential gains at $250 gold, should the management be brainy enough to take the money and run. The simple fact is that these hedge books are still there, and I can think of at least five companies that have sold TEN times their yearly production (can you believe a gold company would be that bearish on its core commodity that it would give away production for ten years???) - only expose themselves to serious financial risk in the case of one of those hundred-year events, a gold price explosion.

What a bunch of turkeys.

My own opinion is not worth much, but I am vehemently anti-hedging. And the endless bull - management has been feeding shareholders about how safe these hedge books are - is making me feel cheated out of performance from a sector that I had written off for a lot of this year. Consequently my recommendations for good situations is limited to those with new projects (exploration companies in some cases), and to producers that haven't sold the family jewels already.

The gold price has dipped below $300/oz on light volume selling - and the usual crap from US-friendly central banks helping out beleaguered bullion dealers - and gold companies from a very tight spot (this time the Kuwaitis).

The facts driving this market at present are still the same. And I am getting pretty bullish on the gold price, and particularly bullish on some of the smaller situations that have been knocked down to bargain prices again - and in some cases trade lower than they did before the gold price rise! (e.g. Viceroy at $1.25!!!). If you are a chartist, gold has come back and filled the gap it made during its rise to $340 on that mad morning when a hedge fund covered. At $300 it is testing solid support and I believe a lot of gold companies are opportunistically looking for a chance to cover hedges, many of which involve options struck at $300. You have to remember some key facts as to why the price is as high as it is:

1) World demand is approx. 4500 tonnes per year vis-a-vis production of 2500-3000 tonnes

2) Physical demand is up 20% this year, mainly from Asian buying when the gold price tested $260.

3) Approximately 10000 tonnes has been lent out into the market to finance hedge books, many of which are unprofitable and present credit and financial risk to counterparties.

4) Counterparties (bullion & lending banks) have worn derivative debacles in Yen, bonds, swaps and copper in the last two years, mostly from hedge funds getting caught.

5) hedge funds are short to the tune of 3000 tonnes, uncovered by any production or reasonable way of covering positions, mostly through options.

6) The gold lease rates normally trade at 0.5% for 12 months. They spiked to 10% for a week, causing pain everywhere when option books started blowing up and the precious "contango" ie the premium of future prices to spot deteriorated. They still remain above 1.5%-2% and mark the new status of gold as a commodity in short supply.

7) Gold traded down to $250 because of aggressive short selling by producers, bullion banks, and hedge funds looking to make a buck from a bear market without considering the risks.

8) The marginal cost per ounce of increasing production globally is approximately $270. This represents a cutoff level where gold companies usually make a loss from extra production. This is especially true in old orebodies in Australia and South Africa. And for all the announcements you see of Barricks' Pierina producing at sub-$100, there are four projects out there with unprofitable production that have to be seriously looked at for future viability.

9) Exploration budgets are one-third or less than what they were two years ago. New ounces are not being discovered faster than they are used, and many mines have been high-grading to maintain profitability in a falling gold price (another one of the things I loathe in companies!!)

10) The announcement of the European Central Banks decision to curtail new sales, and most importantly lending will effectively limit new hedging (where can they borrow the gold from????) and actively discourage renewal of old hedges as contangoes evaporate and the bottom line reason, the profit, disappears.

11) The US economy has finally acknowledged that inflation is alive and well (implied by bond yields of 6.40%) and interest rate hikes are on the way. The US dollar is under serious pressure from other world currencies (the euro and the yen for what its worth!) due to its mushrooming deficit and the huge amount of credit creation from good old Mr. Greenspan. Gold has been shown time and time again to be a hedge against US dollar weakness.

This is why I am bullish and this is why I don't care that the gold price is under $300 again. I believe there are a lot of Ashantis out there, and most of the them will not be disclosed until we get another spike in gold -- which I believe is not too far off.

Look for a base around $295, then another event (such as a falling Dow, a hedge book explosion, a credit default, the announcement by the Swiss that they wont sell etc etc) to set it off and running. If you are a chartist, you will recognize a flag pattern and consolidation formation in the last month or so, signifying a volatility explosion in the not-too-distant future. I believe the direction of this explosion will be up, for the reasons listed.

Basically there is too much random uncertainly out there right now to not be bullish gold - stocks are volatile, bonds keep falling, the US dollar keeps weakening,Y2K is alive and well, and the world is looking increasingly like it is sick and tired of the US dollar being the only alternative. Many Asians were upset by the attitude of the US to their plight when Asia crashed, and the Europeans were mortified when their brand new currency lost 20% in its first quarter. There are big moves going on behind the scenes and I am plugged into only some of them. I have heard the following rumors:

1) The Europeans agreed to stop lending gold to prevent further loss in the value of their reserves. The resulting volatility explosion was a planned event meant to further undermine the US dollar and cause headaches for Wall Street banks and hedge funds that had been actively shorting the euro.

2) George Soros had been plugged into the above and was a massive long gold player and still holds a big position, with full intent to squeeze some competitors (e.g. Tiger) shortly.

3) The Saudis have been huge buyers (I can confirm this is a fact - don't know why though) and are involved in the Euro thing as a repeat of their huge win in silver in the 1970s (see Bunker Hunt's squeeze). etc etc etc I am trying to illustrate that the market is pretty complicated and the gold price is like a window on to the credit flows of the world. It has been used as a funding mechanism by hedge funds (massive shorting to buy bonds) and a profit centre for bullion banks and gold producers. The smart in-crowd made stacks on the way down and are giving some of it back on the way up - I am not shedding too many tears.

Hopefully, you now feel a little more comfortable about holding gold companies in your portfolio and you should see gains in the gold price before year end (at the very least, as a Y2K spike.)

P.S. Patience!!! The gold price will base soon and move north FAST."

An annonymous analyst - 30th october...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

Well, well, after a short absence (way TOO short) the cutnpaste queen Andy has returned with more pearls of wisdom from the minds of others. For those of you that might be so foolish as to listen to this fool on serious issues, such as the movement of gold prices, put your money into lottery tickets. Notice how Andy seems to disappear when gold takes a crap? My, what an intellect.

-- Andy (is@not.dandy), October 30, 1999.

Andy, thanks for still taking the time to post. This wait is excruciating and the Forum sounds like chicken claws and ostrich beaks skid-screeching down the blackboard. By now there should be more overt signs of Impending Unravel -- disconnect at warp speed, reality shield meltdown

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 30, 1999.

I hear the warden has an ulcer and the guards are lookin pretty nervous these days.

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), October 30, 1999.

Andy- Got any lottery number picks? :)

-- Gia (laureltree7@hotmail.com), October 30, 1999.

Welcome back Andy, I missed you!

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), October 30, 1999.

FUCK OFF ANDY!

-- Jan (jan@brady.net), October 30, 1999.

Thank you Jan.

I will.

You lot can continue to masturbate with yourselves.

Have fun.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.

I always thought Marcia Brady was a lot hotter than Jan.

I'd like to mudwrestle with Marcia.

Hey Jan, where is Marcia these days?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), October 30, 1999.

I feel guilty pleasure when I come on a thread like this one, like mudwrestling, ya know?

"The 'meme' thing really is accurate; you can't even see that you're infected with a way of thinking that has blinded you, and that has impaired your powers of logical thinking. "

Chicken, did it ever occur to you that you could be infected by a "meme" too?

Just curious, as a nurse, infections interest me.

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), October 31, 1999.