Milne: More Congressional claptrap (this one works)

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-- a (a@a.a), October 28, 1999

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-- a (a@a.a), October 28, 1999.


My comments in parenthesis ------------------------------ Statement for the Record Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem Foreign Preparedness for Y2K Lawrence K. Gershwin National Intelligence Officer for Science and Technology 13 October 1999 Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee, I am pleased to have the opportunity to provide the Committee with the Intelligence Community's latest assessment of the status of foreign preparedness for Y2K. We recently published a comprehensive, classified National Intelligence Estimate on foreign Y2K efforts, and we are continuing to focus on this evolving issue to ensure that policy makers are as prepared as possible for the potential consequences for the US and our allies of international Y2K failures. This assessment is essentially a "snapshot" of the current state of international preparedness for Y2K. ( If this is a snapshot, then I wonder what kind of shutter speed he is using, cuz the picture he turned out is fuzzy at best) As countries continue their remediation, testing, and contingency planning activities, and as we get more information, some of our observations will change. Efforts to address potential problems vary widely both among and within individual countries. For example, the United Kingdom has a highly successful government awareness campaign which has spurred industry, commerce and government agencies to take steps to correct Y2K problems. ( Meaningless drivel. An awareness' program'. Awarenss programs do NOT remediate anything at all. We have a high awareness in the US. And over 405 of small business has done NOTHING AT ALL. Awareness alone, is meaningless. And of course, that is all he has to talk about. As well, taking steps is not 'successful remediation, either.) At the other end of the spectrum, when Indonesia's national electricity board was recently asked by an Indonesian newspaper about its Y2K preparedness, they replied that they can observe what happens at midnight 1999 in Western Samoa, New Zealand and Australia, and still have six hours to make plans. ( Here is the FOURTH most populous nation on earth and they can forget electricity, period. I stated this WELL over a year ago, when I saw that Indonesia had not even yet BEGUN an electric Utility remediation. Both China AND indonesia had not even completed an assessment as of October 1998. Anyone could have seen it. But, NOW they are saying it.) The quality of corrective work varies greatly among countries and sectors and, in some cases, remediation work introduces new flaws that go undetected due to limited or faulty testing. Moreover, time for effective corrective action is running out. ( Ran out a long long time ago. These imbeciles never give up the false hope that there is 'still time'.) Even if remediation work has taken place, there may be insufficient time left for testing, identifying problems that emerge, and follow-up remediation. Industry experts believe, in many cases, effective testing can take two to three times as long as remediation. (Understatement of the year. Testing is the single most important , most costly, and time consuming element of the remdiation process. Thye vast and overwhelming majority of global systems have NOT even finished being remediated YET ALONE tested.) The availability of funding and technical expertise in foreign countries to analyze vulnerabilities and carry out remediation and testing will continue to be a major impediment. ( This guy has a penchant for stating the obvious and doing it with gross understatement. This is like saying that Tsunamis can cause great moisture related damages if they have a lot of water in them) The public and private sectors will increasingly focus on contingency planning for coping with the impact of Y2K failures after 1 January and prioritizing repairs. ( Of course they will. They have failed to remediate properly. The only thing left to them is disaster plans.) Where effective prevention action has been taken in advance of 1 January, disruptions will likely be random, temporary, and of localized impact. ( I'm going to puke. What a sickening tautology. "Where remdiation has been completed and testing done, there will be no problems." " Where there is no combustible materials, heat nor oxygen, there will be no fire.') In the absence of effective remediation and contingency plans, Y2K-related problems could cause widespread, possibly prolonged disruptions in vital services that could have serious humanitarian and economic consequences. ( PUKE! "Where there IS combustible materials, oxygen and heat, there may be fire.") Y2K failures will occur before and as the date rollover approaches, peaking on 1 January and persisting well beyond that. In some countries, such as Russia, it will likely take a significant amount of time to overcome Y2K failures. (This is testimony on a congressional level? Geez, it is like he is speaking to junior high kids. " The fire will start real small and then get bigger and then it burns out. But if there are a lot of oily rags, the fire will get hotter.") Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia are among the countries most likely to experience significant Y2K-related failures. (Russia...gone. China, most populous nation on earth. Indonesia, fourth most populous nation on earth. Indonesia, no electricity, already in perilous economic shape. Oh, by the way, they just started printing notes denominated as 100,000 rupiah Notes. first time ever. Get it yet?) Countries in Western Europe are generally better prepared, although we see the chance of some significant failures in countries such as Italy. ( Chances? What kind of bullcrap minimization is that? italy has barely started by all accounts. ) Major economic powers such as Germany and Japan are making great strides in Y2K remediation, but their late start and the magnitude of the effort suggest that even these countries are at risk of some failures. (Germany is woefully behind. Japan is way behind as well. Talking about their 'great strides' is LUDICROUS. They always talk about that which has NOTHING to do with where they actually are but only talk about progress towards some place.) Canada, the UK, Australia, Singapore, and Hong Kong are very well prepared and have a lower chance of experiencing any significant Y2K failures. Regional Overview The Americas. The level of Y2K preparedness varies widely among foreign countries in the Americas and even among sectors within individual countries; Canada is working closely with the United States on sectors where national interests are highly integrated such as electrical power-emerges as the best prepared. Most national governments in Latin America have established commissions to coordinate preparations within the public sector and to increase general awareness, but efforts in many cases are late, underfunded, and weakly enforced. ( Establishing commissions remediates NOTHING. Latin America is 100% toast.) Some disruptions of basic public services-including utilities, telecommunications, public health, and social welfare are likely throughout the region, but we are unable to judge their potential scope or duration. ( Nonsense. You are not WILLING to draw simple straightforward conclusions.) We consider it unlikely that these disruptions will affect domestic stability or US interests in this region. ( BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! I think I'm going to vomit. These hearings are a complete FARCE. What kind of damnable idiot could say that mmost of them are way late, underfunded and unenforced and in the same breath say that they will achieve enough coompliance not to cause domestic economic interference.? This guy is either an asshole or a liar. There is no other conclusion.) Europe. European countries, with the exception of the United Kingdom, got a late start in assessing, repairing, and planning for contingencies related to the Y2K problem. Nearly all European governments have national Y2K programs in place, and most are working very hard to minimize the significance of Y2K-related problems. However, we are concerned that some have not allotted adequate resources to remediation and testing. Remediation efforts are the most advanced in the finance and telecommunications sectors and most countries are confident major disruptions in these sectors will be avoided. Small- and medium-sized enterprises are the least prepared. The highly integrated nature of European infrastructure and economic flows increases the risk that individual countries, even the better-prepared ones, will import Y2K problems from lesser-prepared neighbors. ( And the HIGH degree of economic dependence that the US has on global trade will NOT interfere with us. Ohhhhhhh. I get it. The dependencies willl only affect THEM. OVER THER. You know. THOSE GUYS. NOT US. THEM'uns. Asshole) Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are particularly vulnerable to Y2K failures. They got a late start in remediation and lack sufficient resources to identify and correct problems -- virtually guaranteeing that the countries will suffer economic and social consequences for some time. Both countries have old capital stock, much of which has not been upgraded since the Soviet era. They are further impeded because of their perception that a limited computer dependence largely "protects" them. Areas of greatest risk are strategic warning and command and control, nuclear power plants, the gas industry, and the electric power grid. ( And THAT is the EXTENT of what he has to say? PULEEEEEEEASE!! He practically GLOSSED over Russia. Russia is GONE. But, quick, just one quick paragraph throwing in the Ukraine and hope they don't want to dwell on Russia. Don't make any conclusions about what will happen there. Tell them that the European community wil have troubles but don't go too deeply in what will happen with Russia. God Forbid.) Middle East & North Africa. Most countries in the Middle East and North Africa recognize Y2K as a computer hardware and software problem, but started later in dealing with the potential problems with embedded chips and interconnected systems. ( WOW! They 'recognize' it! That must mean they are done.) The oil companies, banking sector, and large multinational companies are best informed and are conducting remediation and testing. ( So what. I am conducting a drainage of the Pacific Ocean by the teaspoon ful, I am working VERY heard and I am dedicated and am motivated to do so.) Government institutions, small businesses, the health sector, and some public utilities lag because of funding shortfalls, a late start in addressing the problem and, in some cases, a misunderstanding of the nature and scope of Y2K vulnerabilities. ( Oh, but you said they 'recognize' it is a problem. But that means that they only know how to 'SAY' y2k. Well, anyway, I am glad they 'recognize that it is a problem. When will they recognize that they can't eat oily sand?) Y2K-related failures will occur, especially in public utilities, although we cannot yet judge their scope or duration. Urban areas will be most affected. ( What CAN this guy judge? Could he judge a brick hitting him in the head? I don't think so. "It has been reported that a hardened, fired, earthen-ware product has struck my cranium. Although there is 'apparent' sanguination, and cerebro-spinal fluid 'apparently' running down my neck and my eyes have 'apparently' glazed over, and my breathing is rapid short and thready, I can draw no conclusions at this time about how i might be affected. Wouldn't be prudent.") Africa. With the exception of South Africa, other countries in sub-Saharan Africa were late in recognizing the Y2K problem but are developing preparations to deal with it. (Oooooh goody! 'ARE developing'. 65 days left and they "ARE" developing a strategy. Clue: Buy Lime. Lottsa lime. Shovels would be good too. oh yeah, and Big black plastic garbage bags, you know, those six foot long 'leaf type bags'. Call Lowe's they got 'em on sale. .) Because many Africans -- especially in rural areas -- expect little from government, interruptions in services are unlikely to spark unrest. (Yeah. Little to spark unrest in Africa. Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone. Jonas Savimbi. Hutus slaughtering Tutsi's. What was that president charged with being a homosexual? No, Not Clinton, that was Sodomy. But, yes, I do understand why you would think he acts little diferent that a sub-Saharan potentate. No, Africa is SAFE. Thank goodness.) Asia-Pacific. Preparations for dealing with Y2K problems across the Asia-Pacific region vary greatly. The Asian countries that rely heavily on advanced technology for power generation, communications, and transportation have had comprehensive Y2K programs under way for some time. Most countries with moderate reliance on computers are aware of potential Y2K problems and have begun assessment and remediation efforts. ( 'Have begun'. 65 days to go. Most. Well, some. Ok, One.) The sectors with the most advanced programs for dealing with Y2K are banking and finance, civil aviation, and telecommunications. The sectors least prepared, as a general rule, are railroads, ports, medical services, and, small- and medium-sized enterprises. Impact on US of Y2K Failures Y2K-related disruptions and failures can affect US interests in three ways: -- They may have a direct impact. (May? I'll have a little of what he's smoking.) Some foreign infrastructures and vital sectors are directly linked to those in the United States either physically or through computer networks. -- They may have an indirect impact. ( May? They 'may' have a 'direc't impact. They 'may' have an 'indirec't impact. Gotta love this guy. Stalwart that he is. uhh, what other kinds of impact are there? I think that using that categorization , direct and indirect is all there is. But, I am glad he narrowed it down. Some guys would not have had the balls to say there "may' be a direct impact and then, have the temerity to stand up there, in full view, and also say that there might be an 'indirect ' impact TOO. The STONES on that guy! Granite cries out to be carved into this guy's likeness.) The United States depends on the uninterrupted flow of many raw materials and finished goods for its economic security and national defense. ( Let's see, you have already as well as stated that abput 90% of the world is kne-walking tight. And you say that we are DEPENDENT on this global trade. ok, I am waiting to hear this astonishing revelation. Go for it!) In addition, diplomatic and military operations depend upon host-nation infrastructure support, including telecommunications and electric power. -- They may have broad national security implications. ( "May" have implications. Everything involving the US only "MAY" have implications. Only "MAY". I think that this guy "May" be an asshole.Now you wanna bet that when he get to THOSE GUYS. OVERT HERE. he will NOT use the word 'MAY" ONCE. ) Foreign Y2K-related crises have the potential to involve US military and civilian components in humanitarian relief, environmental disaster recovery, or evacuations. The direct impact on the United States of Y2K-related disruptions and failures in foreign infrastructures will be limited. ( I agree. Will be limited to cutting off half our oil. Will be limited to severing the majority of our foriegn trade. Will be limited to cutailing overseas flights. Will be limited to "X" amount of people dying. Sure am glad it will be limited.) There are several reasons for this. First of all, Canada, the country to whose infrastructure we are most tightly linked, is well advanced in Y2K remediation and unlikely to export significant problems to the United States. ( We will be safe because CANADA is well advanced. That is the first time that I have ever heard that CANADA will save the USA.) Second, the global payments system is unlikely to experience significant failures, because most of the developed countries appear well prepared in the banking and finance sector. ( Bald faced, categorical, intentional LIE. Laughable at that. 'MOST' developed countries. Oh, neve rmind the undeveloped countries banking systems when they crash. we can just ignore them. tral la la. Screw Zimbabwe. tra la la. The hell with Sri Lank. tra la la, there goes Bolivia. Oops there goes Russia. Nope, no problems will be felt here at'all.) Financial institutions in most emerging markets, however, as well as those in less developed countries, may experience failures because they started the remediation process later and because they are experiencing scarcities of resources and technical expertise. Even well-prepared institutions, however, will still be impacted if disruptions occur in domestic infrastructures -- especially electric power and telecommunications. They are also exposed to Y2K problems in the information systems of their customers, vendors, and smaller banks to whom they are linked. Third, we are highly confident that Y2K failures will not lead to the inadvertent or unauthorized launch of a ballistic missile by any country. If Y2K failures do occur, we are concerned about the potential for Russia to misinterpret early warning data -- especially if we were in a period of increased tensions brought on by an international political crisis. Russia and the United States have agreed to establish the Center for Year 2000 Strategic Stability at Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado. The Center will provide a venue for sharing information on missile and space launches collected by US sensors across the year 2000 date change in order to prevent any misunderstandings resulting from Russian early warning failures. Finally, the United States is unlikely to experience a significant disruption in oil deliveries because our key suppliers appear to be Y2K ready. ( 'appear'. we are 'unlikely to what? because they 'appear'? it's rock solid investigation like this that makes it 'appear' we willbe alright. And when the shit hits the fan, food will 'appear' on your plate. Let them eat 'appearances'.) Major multinational firms have been in the forefront of remediation and testing efforts, and operators of oil terminals and tankers have been similarly active in correcting Y2K vulnerabilities. ( That's what scares me most. That their remediation efforts are 'similar'.) While we probably will not be directly impacted by foreign Y2K failures, ( 'probably will not'. ) breakdowns in foreign infrastructure could impact US interests overseas: ( 'could')

-- i hope this works (very.very@big.file), October 28, 1999.

Thanks a,

That was one of the most enjoyable Milne rants ever. He was making a bunch of great points before he finally ran out of gas!

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 28, 1999.


When he gets on a roll ... In the immortal words of Keanu Reeves: "Woh!"

-- A (A@AisA.com), October 28, 1999.

Yeah, Mr. Milne didn't even take a shot at this part:

Malevolent Actors. The extensive publicity surrounding the Y2K phenomenon and the millennium, the increased vulnerability of critical infrastructures, and the resultant potential for disruptions in services could invite state and nonstate actors, including mischief-makers, to conduct attacks against the United States or US interests abroad, or against other perceived adversaries...

"Malevolent actors", eh? Anything like pseudo-candidate Warren Beatty?

Lying is sometimes referred to as "actor's disease". It seems we have a few "malevolent actors" already at work, some of them with gigs in Washington, DC. Wonder if they're working for scale with a percentage of the Gross (not Net, never Net).

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 28, 1999.



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