Milne: Irrefutable Evidence That We Are In Serious Trouble

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Too long to crosspost

-- a (a@a.a), October 26, 1999

Answers

Paul, please look at my post. What is the human thing to do? Thank you

-- Nana (drac@mediaone.net), October 26, 1999.

Nana,

Paul may not view this thread. It was posted by a, not Paul.

If Paul does view this thread, and would like to look at your post, it would help if you mentioned the subject line of your post so that he would know which post you had in mind.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptioc76@erols.com), October 27, 1999.


Paul found it.

-- Updated by (upd@tes.R.US), October 27, 1999.

I propose that henceforth if we assert a negative, that the negative standalone.

For example: "My colleague has said there will be no Y2K problems. None. Zip. Nada."

In this example, the additional qualifiers 'None, Zip, Nada,' are not only redundant, they are trite. They are cliched.

Let us salute them and walk away. Are you with me, men?

-- Scarecrow (Scarecrow@Elements.Style), October 27, 1999.


a

Sez you.

Year 2000 Facts, Forecasts, and Areas of Concern Warren L. Bone, MBA / Year 2000 Consultant 22 October 1999. . . . On This Date-22 October. 1997 88% of companies with fewer than 2,000 employees had not even started on Y2K. Warre It was projected that any company who had not started by October 1997 would not make it. "If people think that they can wait until 1999 or even [1998] before starting to do something, then you have got to question their understanding of the problem. The picture is not a happy one." [1] 1999 7 Only 48 workdays (70 calendar days) until 2000. Small Businesses 40% will not be ready for 2000. [2] 28%, nearly one-third, plan to do nothing at all-will just wait and see what happens. They "think the problem is being blown out of proportion." [3] Are putting themselves in economic jeopardy, according to the White House.[4] Potentially 8 million or more may be forced to close (one third of 24 million). Employ more than 50% of the private workforce.[5] Generate more than half the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).[6] Number between 15 million and 24 million in the U. S.[7] Don't seem to care or understand the seriousness.they just don't get it. Only 81 have applied for loans through The Small Business Year 2000 Readiness Act, [8] which provides SBA loans for consulting, systems and software purchases and repair. That has been available since 2 April 1999. [9] Large Businesses 81% are still not ready.[10] 44% will not be ready for 2000.[11] 92% rank the need for independent Y2K verification and validation as high.[12] This also provides further due diligence. 59% are concerned about legal issues, with 27% believing lawsuits against their company are likely.[13] Half the large companies do not have a contingency plan.[14] Local Governments 25% of counties in U.S. have no Year 2000 plan and will not be ready.[15] 63% of "911" call centers (mostly run by local governments) will not be ready.[16] Healthcare 60% of healthcare providers will not be ready.[17] 15% of healthcare providers have done nothing.[18] Education 70% of schools and colleges will not be ready.[19] Federal Government Is not ready for 2000 and will not be ready.[20] Has been painting the "positive" picture for the public. "The administration is fooling itself and luring the American public into a false sense of security."[21] ".and the job is still not completed. Progress during this quarter, which ended on August 15 [1999], is discouraging. [My italics.] The flurry of activity we saw among federal agencies earlier this year has slowed to a snail's pace."[22] [My italics.] ".the overall federal government improved its compliance rate by a measly one percent during the last three months." [23] [My italics.] Will likely see the need to intervene in the economic sector, as well as in the governmental sectors at the state and local levels, and internationally. "Pentagon officials say the idea behind the change is to give a president options short of martial law to deal with domestic crises." [24] [My italics and underline.] We may see the federal government intervene in the stock market by suspending trading if the market begins declining rapidly. A significantly sustained decline in the value of stocks will herald the beginning of the worldwide recession, which I believe we will experience. (See "Worldwide Economic Impact" topic below.) Also, the government may need to regulate/adjust wholesale and retail prices, and interest rates, in an effort to stave off the deflationary effects of Year 2000 problems worldwide. Almost every Year 2000 report you see, from every source, talks about mission critical systems. These are the systems, which if not working, can shut the business (or government) down; they are essential to the "mission" of the organization. The federal government's count of its mission critical systems has varied monthly. . . . From November 97's high of 8,589 to March 99's low of 6,123 the government managed to reclassify 2,466 systems (29%) as "not really mission critical after all." (Again, see note 25.) An explanation of the calendar of events between the Feb. 99 and May 99 reports, is in order here: The Feb. 99 data above was received from the agencies, dated 12 February 1999. (That report of 6,399 systems and 79% compliant was not released to the public until 18 March 1999, one month later-all the Quarterly Reports are issued a month following receipt of the data.) On 23 February 1999, only one week after receiving the February data, Mr. Koskenin, Chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, announced (at a press conference) that the federal government's mission critical systems would be 90% compliant by 31 March 1999, the President's deadline.[37] On 18 March 1999 the February 12 data was issued. On 31 March 1999 Koskenin reported that, "according to the most recent data obtained from the agencies" 92% were now compliant, and had met the deadline.[38] Then the May 99 figures were issued. "Despite their stellar work, the overall federal government improved its compliance rate by a measly one percent during the last three months. [My underline.] This performance rate is simply not acceptable." [39] The bottom line to all this is that the number of systems identified as "mission critical", has continued to drop up to the point of the 31 March 1999 deadline set by the President. Now note that immediately after the "big deadline" the number of systems began to increase again. Defense Department added 333 more systems. [40] . . . . The agencies in their inventory of mission critical systems had identified eight-thousand-five-hundred-eighty-nine (!) systems critical to their operations, by November 1997. Using that number (8,589) (as the number of mission critical systems which really should be made compliant) the percent compliant each quarter then looks quite different. Two good examples are the 31 March deadline (government reported 92%; should really be only 66%), and the report of August 99 (government says it is 97% compliant; it is actually only 71% compliant.) I suspect that by 31 December 1999-we should see a report dated about 15 November and issued about 15 December-the government will be reporting 100% ready, while my projection right now is that the actual will only be about 75% compliant. (I expect the count of mission critical systems to stay rather much like it shows for August 1999: 6,343. DOD may be still doing its inventory at this late date, but I am sure the other agencies will find that more of their mission critical systems are really not critical after all, and even more can be dropped off the list prior to year end. That will make the government's numbers come out just right: 100% just in time! Using my formula: If the total number systems is 6,343 and the government finally reports 100% of them are compliant, then that's 6,343 in the "Number Compliant" column. 6,343 is 74% of 8,589. To round it all off, and to give the government the benefit of the doubt regarding what is really critical or not, let's say the total number reported and compliant at year end is 6,000, and that since the November 1997 inventory there really were 589 of those systems that were misclassified to begin with, then the number of systems to be made compliant is 8,000. 6,000 is 75% of 8,000. The government mission critical systems will probably be at about 75% compliant at millennium end. (Even if they say they are at 100%.) The government has gained 26 percentage points on its reporting by simply reducing the base of the calculation. The number of non-mission critical systems for any company or organization is probably five to ten times greater than what it calls mission critical (and this would not include all the individual PC-based software in use). Most companies have concentrated on the mission critical. Enough "non-mission critical" systems exist to cause severe disruption if they, too, are not made ready. ".we must constantly remind ourselves that the mission-critical systems we talk about are but the tip of the iceberg-approximately one eighth of the installed base of systems [referencing federal government systems]. Roughly speaking there are 8,000 mission-critical systems plus 60,000 second and third tier systems.uncounted millions of embedded computer chips. We can not allow all of these so-called non-mission-critical systems to fail.The collective confusion of tens of thousands of secondary systems failing could be catastrophic." [41] Worldwide Economic Impact Overall, the U.S. is not in good shape for Year 2000. To put it another way: The U.S. private sector and the federal, state and local governments are all in bad shape for 2000. [I would normally put a footnote here to substantiate these statements; but if you will disregard the efforts to paint a "don't worry, be happy" picture for us all-from the federal, state and local governments and from all those businesses making their Year 2000 Readiness Disclosure Statements and SEC disclosures-you will realize there are thousands of articles and documents to substantiate my statements.too many to "footnote", of course.] The rest of the world is much further behind than we are. [42] Many are at great risk and will suffer deep and severe related problems, many of which will negatively impact our economy. "It is amazing, but true, that the Year 2000 computer bug could harm the world's largest and most robust economy." [43] 75% chance of severe global recession. 60% for recession or depression.[44] Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) down 2%-3%.[45] Stock market down 30%.[46] Business interruptions, domino effect, reduced production, layoffs, higher unemployment, less demand, Y2K costs continuing for years. Deflation. [47] The process is likely to start before 2000, become obvious by April 2000, and continue through 2000 and 2001. Worldwide. [48] Summary Only 48 workdays to get it all done. 40% of small businesses will not be ready, and don't seem to care. 48% of large businesses will not be ready. 25% of counties will not be ready. 60% of healthcare providers (including doctors) will not be ready. 70% of schools and colleges will not be ready. The federal government will not be ready. The rest of the world will not be ready. Major problems. 75% chance of a major deflationary recession worldwide. _ Warren Bone initiated the Year 2000 Project in mid-1996 for Gaylord Entertainment Company (NYSE: GET), an international company headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, with over 60 operating companies. He directed and managed the project for over three years and has dedicated his time to the research and activities related to Year 2000 issues since mid-1996. He has over 25 years experience in Information Technology (including management, systems engineering, design, and development), public accounting, strategic planning, contingency planning and disaster recovery, marketing, product management, business consulting, computer security and crime prevention, and Year 2000. He earned his Master of Business Administration degree following his undergraduate degree in accounting. His Year 2000 studies include daily research of more than 80 selected Y2K web sites, including those of the U.S. government. He is now a Year 2000 consultant to CPAs and attorneys, and their clients. He can be reached at: wbone@home.com, or (615) 353-0249. # # # All Rights Reserved Warren Bone 1999 --------------------------------------------------------------------- [1] Tim Wilson, Year 2K: Ready or Not? - Small firms delay bug fixes, study finds (Internet Week, October 06, 1997, Issue: 684. http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?INW19971006S0128). Gartner Group report. Also: John Tate, John Tate's Update on the Industry (Tate Bramald Consultancy. http://www.tatebramald.co.uk/web/news/jtupdate2.htm). Also: Douglas Hayward, Small Businesses Head For Year 2000 Disaster (Technology News, October 22, 1997. http://www.techweb.com/wire/news/1997/10/1022y2k.html). [2] National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), Survey shows half of all small firms preparing for Y2K; Almost three million have acted to prevent "millennium bug" (NFIB Online: News Releases, May 24, 1999. http://www.nfibonline.com/). [Once there, click on "SITE SEARCH," then type in "survey shows half" and click on Search. Then click on the title of the article to view it. After reading the survey click on "Small Business FAQs" to the right of the screen. There you will see the direct source of information quoted by others regarding the number of small businesses. The President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, in addition to many others, quotes this report. President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, 100 Days to Y2K (Press Release, September 22, 1999. http://www.y2k.gov/new/0922prls.html), and 100 Days to Y2K: A Resource Guide for Small Organizations (http://www.y2k.gov/new/0922doc3.html). Also, David Myron, Y2K looms Over Small Business (VARBusiness, September 27, 1999. http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?VAR19990927S0023 NFIB research indicates that 60% of the small businesses had done something to prepare for Year 2000; therefore, 40% had done nothing, with 75% of that group actually planning to do nothing (which is 30% of the total). SPECIAL NOTE OF CLARIFICATION: The NFIB survey seems to have been misinterpreted and misunderstood. NFIB surveyed approximately 5 million small businesses, identified as those who "own or operate" a business-they are employers. However, in addition to those 5 million, another 7 million work for themselves, and another 9 million also reported business income on their tax returns: NFIB states that there are 21 million small businesses included in these three categories. Given that a survey is conducted on a statistical sampling of the entire population under consideration, those results should reflect the status of all 21 million small businesses, not just 4.67 (or 5) million. The number "800,000" to "850,000" has been tossed around in the news as the number of small businesses at high risk, because 28% of those surveyed stated they plan to do nothing at all about Year 2000. Also, NFIB stated that the number of those that have now taken some action is 2.8 million. 28% of the 2.8 million is 780,000 (round to 800,000.) Some also interpret this as "almost thirty percent": 30% of 2.8 million is 840,000 (round to 850,000). The problem is that the 2.8 million represents those who have ALREADY taken some action-that is the wrong basis altogether. At minimum, NFIB's survey to 5 million small business employers found that 28% are at risk of possibility losing their businesses; that is 1.4 million, not 800,000. More realistically, however, the results should be applied to the entire population of 21 million "small businesses", giving us 5.88 (round to 6) million at risk. My position is, and my projections are, that any company, organization or government, which was not completely ready by mid-year 1999, will not be completely ready by 2000. A portion of that 60% of small businesses will not be fully ready, and since 30% actually plan to do nothing, it is easy to see that at least 40% of all small businesses will not be ready for 2000 when it arrives. My projection is that 40% of the 21 to 24 million small businesses in the U.S. will not be ready: 8.4 - 9.6 million. I have taken this position with all sectors on which I have reported in this document: i.e., 100% of the sector, less the percentage of those "ready" leaves the percentage of those "not ready". Those not ready will also not be ready at 1 January 2000. Given that any survey results are usually several months old by the time we digest them, in the case of Year 2000 I have seen that the patterns displayed by any particular survey hold true from report to report, survey to survey. At this late date in the Year 2000 issue those patterns for any group or sector under observation will continue until 2000 gets here, and beyond. [3] Ibid. [4] Stephen Barr, All Okay On Y2K? Not Yet (Washingtonpost.com, September 27, 1999. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/feed/a47772-1999sep27.ht m [5] David Myron, Y2K looms Over Small Business (VARBusiness, September 27, 1999. http://www.techweb.com/se/directlink.cgi?VAR19990927S0023) [6] Ibid. [7] Ibid. Also: Statement of John A. Koskinen, Chairman, President's Council On Year 2000 Conversion.. January 20, 1999. (http://www.y2k.gov/council/JKTE0120.htm). Also, see footnote 2 regarding the NFIB survey. [8] Stephen Barr, All Okay On Y2K? Not Yet (Washingtonpost.com, September 27, 1999. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/feed/a47772-1999sep27.ht m [9] Small Business Administration (SBA), Y2K Action Loan Program (http://www.sba.gov./financing/fry2k.html). Also: U.S. Senate, Small Business Year 2000 Readiness Act (February 23, 1999. http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/hill/106srpt106-5.htm). [10] CIO Magazine News Bureau, Y2K Experts Poll Exposes Incompletion and Complacency (Press release, September 30, 1999. http://www.cio.com/info/releases/093099_y2kpoll.html). [11] Cap Gemini America, With 100 Days Remaining, 82 Percent of Major Firms Say Year 2000 Poses "No Significant Business Risk" (Press Release, September 22, 1999. http://www.usa.capgemini.com/news/pr99.asp?id=109). [12] Ibid. [13] CIO Magazine News Bureau, Y2K Experts Poll Exposes Incompletion and Complacency (Press release, September 30, 1999. http://www.cio.com/info/releases/093099_y2kpoll.html). [14] Ibid. [15] President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, 100 Days to Y2K: A Resource Guide for Small Organizations (http://www.y2k.gov/new/0922doc3.html). [16] Ibid. [17] Ibid. [18] Ibid. [19] Ibid. [20] Rep. Stephen Horn, R-CA, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology, Horn Releases Ninth Y2K Report Cards (News Release, September 10, 1999. http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/990910.htm). [21] House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, USAToday, Most critical govt. systems Y2K-ready (USAToday Tech Report, April 1, 1999. http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/cte770.htm). [22] Horn, Horn Releases Ninth Y2K Report Cards (News Release, September 10, 1999. http://www.house.gov/reform/gmit/y2k/990910.htm [23] Ibid. [24] Jamie McIntyre, Military Affairs Correspondent, CNN, Expanded domestic use of U.S. military raising civil liberty concerns (CNN.com, October 7, 1999. http://www.cnn.com/US/9910/07/military.civilian/index.html). [25] Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget (OMB), 4th Quarterly Report (February 15, 1998. http://www.cio.gov/docs/y2k4q.htm). This was the first of the reports explaining why the number of mission critical systems identified keeps going down: "This change occurred because senior management in several agencies refined their lists of mission-critical systems." The 5th Quarterly Report noted below, also contains such text: ".senior Federal managers have reevaluated which systems are critical to their organizations' missions and set priorities within their organizations." Further reports use the same text with simply adding the words ".continue to reevaluate." [26] OMB, Getting Federal Computers Ready for 2000. Progress Report, (first report, June 23, 1997. http://www.cio.gov/docs/yr2krev.htm). [27] OMB, Progress on Year 2000 Conversion (second summary report, August 15, 1997. http://www.cio.gov/docs/y2krp897.htm). [28] OMB, Progress on Year 2000 Conversion, 3rd Report (November 15, 1997. http://www.cio.gov/docs/y2knov97.htm).

-- eyes_open (best@wishes.not), October 27, 1999.



My kingdom for a linebreak. If I had a kingdom.

-- semper paratus (you're@killin.me), October 27, 1999.

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