Finally a good investigation into the actual problem and infrastructure. No wild speculation and crazy conjecture. Well done.

-- You Knowwho (debunk@doomeridiots.com), October 26, 1999

Answers

It must have been paid for by the UN and the idiots over at debunker.

-- anti-idiot (no@no.no), October 26, 1999.

You Knowwho, this was the stupidest thing ever done on Y2k. Having said, that if you truly believe it was good, then you have formally disqualified yourself as being knowledgeable on anything about Y2k.

I know that sounds confrontational, but you really dont know what you are talking about if you think that Y2k show was a "good investigation".

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), October 26, 1999.

I would say addressing certain key infrastructure data points directly is the basis of a good investigation.

One point that is absolutely correct is that the majority of the problem lies in accounting and not in delivery of services. That is something more Doomers should understand. So we will have electricity, phones and goods and services will still be available. Banks and investment companies are solid. If this is TEOTWAWKI then it is really underrated.

-- You Knowwho (debunk@doomeridiots.com), October 26, 1999.

YKW, what do you use as the basis for saying its mostly an accounting problem. Ever work with single-board computers?. Do you have any idea how many millions of computers just wont work at all when the year. cant be calculated because it went from 99 to 00 ?. Any idea how many just dont like 00 not for calculations but just cant handle the 00 at the firmware level. How many will not accept 00 at all if manually entered at boot time?

I was working with a friend on a satellite tracking system. Roll the computer forward to y2k and the system just hung. You have to replace the PROMs in the motorola SBC and then upgrade the operating system and then the tracking program. Thats for one satellite tracking system in one dish. ZERO ZERO is just not valid in millions and millions of machines and MOST of them are NOT being addressed. Think I am wrong ?. Ask your friends if they have checked their personal computers for Y2k compliancy. Ask trusted (known-good) small business friends/associates who arent afraid to tell you the truth.

I just started working with someone this week who is STARTING assesement TOMMOROW.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), October 26, 1999.

Troll, Troll, Troll, Troooolllllll!!!

Go back and hide under your bridge.

-- MMireles (MMireles2@hotmail.com), October 26, 1999.

Damn this forum, I missed the program.

Sounds like Cringely the polly showed up. Very interesting, coming from the early Gary North.

No comment, 'til I catch the rerun...

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 26, 1999.

"Finally a good investigation into the actual problem"

hey youknowwho... ever hear of oil?

any idea what a 5 (or 25%) cut in oil supply will do to this country??

are u on planet earth???

-- lou (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), October 26, 1999.

Yes, what an excellent unbiased look at Y2k. Sure there may be problems, but nothing bad will happen. I feel much better now. And I'm certainly not going to sell stocks or hoard cash.

-- Henry Mulaney (hank@hotmail.com), October 26, 1999.

Sysman, I wouldn't want to see a grown man cry. The PBS show on Y2K is on again at 3 a.m. EST tonight. So touch that botton on your VCR and go to sleep. If you are on another time zone it might be on later at night again where you are. PBS shows the same show 2x a night usually. : )

-- Debi (LongTimeLurker@shy.com), October 26, 1999.

YKW, you said:

I would say addressing certain key infrastructure data points directly is the basis of a good investigation.

Some else might say:

I would say UNdressing certain key infrastructure data points directly is the basis of a good investigation.

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), October 26, 1999.

Hamster, thanks for relating your experience. I always like to hear from people who know the real truth. On the 1 to 10 scale, how bad do you think y2k will be?

-- Earl (earl.shuholm@worldnet.att.net), October 26, 1999.

Wow, I learned that planes won't fall out of the sky. You Knowwho, you're not the moron you appear to be, are you?

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 26, 1999.

You Knowwho (may I call you You?);

You (you) said: "One point that is absolutely correct is that the majority of the problem lies in accounting and not in delivery of services. That is something more Doomers should understand. So we will have electricity, phones and goods and services will still be available. Banks and investment companies are solid."

Assuming everything else is cool (no embedded chip failures, etc.), and the problem is totally "accounting" -- consider:

What is a bank or an investment company BUT a bunch of ledger entries? Last time I looked, that's "accounting."

"...electricity, phones and goods and services will still be available." Okay, that's good for a start. But what happens when their ACCOUNTING software won't handle Accounts Receivable or Accounts Payable? If they can't bill accurately, they can't get their money to generate the cash flow to pay THEIR suppliers (including their employees). I'm SURE that they'll all say to each other, "That's okay. You can let it slide for a while until it all gets straightened out. Our CEO has agreed to only accept FOUR Beemers this year instead of SIX." Right. They'll rip each other to shreds in the feeding frenzy.

Even assuming this is the GOOD news, it really doesn't look all THAT good...

-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), October 26, 1999.

Why call it "you"? Call it Pat from Debunking, because that's who it looks like.

-- I (see@you.there), October 26, 1999.

Watch for next years hit PBS program "This old bunker."

-- smfdoc (smfdoc@aol.com), October 26, 1999.

What about the embedded chips ???? NOT A WORD ABOUT THEM !!!! even though the date is not used --

Is the embedded chip a generic chip with an unused date function ticking away inside it ??????

-- ALURKER (nobody@nowhere.com), October 26, 1999.

Aw, gawd, don't start 'em off. I know what you mean and YOU know what you mean, but THEY will tell you it's a SYSTEM, an embedded SYSTEM, not a chip. Actually, a system sounds a lot more complicated and vulnerable than a chip, doesn't it?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), October 26, 1999.

Actually, a system sounds a lot more complicated and vulnerable than a chip, doesn't it?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), October 26, 1999.

Yep,

I guess how it "sounds" makes all the difference in the world on what will happen.

That wasn't a very good barrow roll. Gotta love all that old equipment I recognized from having worked on it, I was one of those women rewiring the "code" on that old ENIAC. *ROFLMAO*

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), October 27, 1999.

I saw it and I give it a "D-"

It was...

Mocking and condecending: "Planes won't fall out of the sky". etc., etc., etc., til I thought I was going to lose my breakfast.

Simplistic: Power and banking will be fine. Your stores will still provide you with goods. Water delivery is a cynch and never was a "problem". You'll still be able to write a check. Problems will be minor. etc., etc.

One Sided: No real counter arguments presented to the pollyanna spin and smoothed over "everything should be fine" assesment. Many issues were not discussed.

They stepped up to the plate, took the ball out of their back pocket and trotted up to the center field wall and tossed it over the fence. Now, see, wasn't that simple? Home runs are so easy to do.

This was a government lackey production.

sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), October 27, 1999.

"I guess how it "sounds" makes all the difference in the world on what will happen"

It "sounds" like software to me. It ain't the chip, it's what's on the chip. Software, just like mainframe or PC, instructions, code if you will. Code that may use a date. Fact? Agree?

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 27, 1999.

Sysman,

I wish you had seen it, you would have recognised a few things that were said.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), October 27, 1999.

Cherri,

I really do have to hit the sack, but please explain, seen what? A post here, or elsewere? Or you talking about "rewiring the code"???

I used to "wire" boards, like the IBM 40x accounting machine, even before I learned how to "program" 32 years ago. Card based machines, read a card, print these columns here, total this field, print a subtotal if an account number (or a date) changes, all wired on a plug-in board.

No dates in that hardware. But we did have dates in the data, on the cards. I wonder what would happen if we had to sort those cards on a date?

Or are you talking about how complicated embedded systems are?

Give me a clue. I'll check this thread later, maybe before lunch.

Good night Cherri. <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 27, 1999.

I get nervous when anyone has the need to keep reassuring me that "everything it going to be just fine". But Im sure the spin- doctors in D.C. feel they got their moneys worth from the program.

-- Capt. Dennis (capden@hotmail.com), October 27, 1999.

I thought I read something about Cringley having worked with Apple at one time. Does anyone know anything about this?

-- @ (@@@.@), October 27, 1999.

The reason I was wondering is because the way Cringely has changed so quickly almost makes me wonder if this is some kind of business strategy. Here's a guy who just a few months ago was saying how Microsoft was going to be all screwed up by Y2K because none of their stuff is compliant, not even Windows 2000. Now it is almost as though Apple paid him to go out and tell everybody to forget about it. By doing this, the numbers of people who would get pissed at Microsoft next year will be increased because they won't even bother to worry about Y2K patches or anything. Will all these millions of people fed up with Microsoft problems, a cute little Y2K-immune Apple IMac might look real good!

-- @ (@@@.@), October 27, 1999.

Poolie is getting desperate in his attempts to elevate himself to the rank of "biting, stinging polly", so please be patient with him.

And remember -- it's entirely likely that he just won't make the grade, and we'll be stuck with him as a "buzzing in your face" variety for the next two months.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), October 27, 1999.

Sysman,

Hi. PBS' show was a joke! At one point, they said that some systems wouldn't even have to have the original code changed - that a hardware fix would do the job AND that the programmers didn't want people to know about it because it would "strip them of their power".

What a bunch of bulls**t!!!!!!

As been stated above, it was condescending, simplistic and never mentioned the more serious matters. There was no-one to rebute their one-sided statements. All of the filming locations were away from technical areas where someone might actually see some of the "power- hungry" programmers sweating away on the front lines... Heaven forbid that someone should think that remediation is ACTUALLY WORK and this Y2K thing might actually be a threat!!!

I'm just waiting for PBS to come calling for donations this coming year - they won't get a darn nickle from me, now on in. This show is to TV what Maplethorpe was to art. Pure garbage!

-- Deb (v.mcclell@columbus.rr.com), October 27, 1999.

PBS and that prima facie moron Cringelay, are paid instruments of the fascist elite that is trying to take over this country. No better proof of the collusion of financial, corporate and government powers to cover up Y2K to protect the bottom line of the rich in total disregard for the lives of the people could have been offered. This transparent moronic production reeks with the arrogance and imbecillity of those who think the Titanic is unsinkable. The people will follow the brave few who when the time comes will be the new Paul Reveres calling the peasant army to defend our freedom against the thievery of banks and international cartels.

God save America, imperiled land of the free still home of a few brave men and women ready to die for freedom. Y2K will separate real people from the sniveling wretches who have prostituted their liberty for a few dollars.

Make ready, for these arrogant morons are dangerous precisely because they are proving their lack of intelligence.

The Y2K catastrophe will be well above a 5 on the scale of 1 to 10

Prepare...and be brave.

-- Eagle (y@y.y), October 27, 1999.

Note: the fellow they cut to most as saying everything-will-be-all-right-for-God's-sake wore an expensively-cut dark suit and quiet tie and had a neat haircut and a British accent (actually it sounded to me more like tarted-up South London or Australian). He was interviewed in an efficient and modern office setting. Very respectable and credible.

And the guy who spoke most of the maybe-we-have-a-problem stuff was dressede casually, had a nice little pot going, hair blowing in the wind, and was interviewd by what looked like a Florida canal. Obviously a Jimmy, not Warren, Buffet type. Bit flaky maybe? Hints of Margaritaville!

Maybe it was just coincidence.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), October 27, 1999.

Er, the guy was interviewed by Cringely, not the canal. I haven't quite lost it yet.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), October 27, 1999.

I felt like I was watching Alice in wonderland! There was however, one statement made that caught my ear. " Nobody really understands just how this code works." If that staement is true, that makes the rest of the show, and cess pool a non-starter!

Back to the preps!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), October 27, 1999.

The whole show sounded like propaganda to me. And in the end, just keep your financial records and take your checkbook with you to the store. Talk about irresponsible reporting! I am boycotting PBS.

-- Darla (dnice@hgo.net), October 27, 1999.

No, the special was good. We pollies believe everything we are told. It's going to be in in 2000. Trust us. And believe everything you are told.

-- Dr. PollyDork (DrPollyDork@moron.com), October 27, 1999.

Duh, silly me. I guess Cherri meant that I should have seen the show. I gotta stop hanging out here 'til 2 AM. It's all so much clearer after some sleep... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 27, 1999.

PBS y2k year of our disconnect was a catchy title but, the content was insulting to my intelligence. I work for public broadcasting and have generally been proud and impressed with the reporting, like on Frontline. This program had me absolutely scared/shocked/immobile like a deer in headlights!! You have all pointed out the problems, thank you for reassuring me! The program WAS mocking, condescending and irresponsible journalism, you said it.

-- jody frisby (frisby@psycho.psy.ohio-state.edu), October 27, 1999.

Hey, Eagle, are you really INVAR? You sound just like him! I agree with your message totally, and I'm ready, if it comes to that. Good luck!!

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), October 27, 1999.

Sent this message to Oregon Public Television and KQED, our local Bay Area public TV station. KQED suggested I forward it to Bob Cringely himself at cringely@pbs.org. I did just that. Some of you might want to send him similar sentiments.

"Dear Oregon Public Television & KQED,

"The recent broadcast of "The Winter of Our Discontent" 'documentary' about the Year 2000 computer problem hosted by Bob Cringley represents a new low in investigative journalism. Mr. Cringley's analysis of the Y2K problem showed a complete lack of understanding of the breadth and depth of the Y2K software/hardware issues that face this nation and the world. Yes, real companies are spending billions of dollars to fix real problems, yet a large percentage of software projects are notoriously late despite optimistic management pronouncements. To focus on red-herrings such as survivalist and religious group paranoia concerning this unprecedented technological fiasco was a tremendous disservice to your viewers. To quote...

"'Then who the heck are those Y2K extremists, the ones who are stockpiling canned goods? Most of them are religious fundamentalists and survivalists. The former seem quite certain that God is on the decimal system.'

"Did your host bother to acknowledge that as of early October 25% of the Chief Information Officers for leading Fortune 500 companies are planning to store away foodstuffs in the event of supply-chain breakdowns and that 34% of these individuals plan on having at least $1000 cash on hand prior to the date roll-over? No. Why not? Source:

"http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=105&STORY=/www/ story/10-06-1999/0001037415

"Did your host bother to estimate the impact of the 28% of small businesses in America that have no plan for becoming Y2K compliant? Did Mr. Cringley interview anyone who holds the position that these business failures will dramatically affect the economy? No. Why not? When these businesses experience failures of their 'mission critical' systems, it will not be because of right-wing survivalist and religious group behavioral anomalies. It will be because of poor management foresight and failure to recognize their business' dependencies on information technology systems.

"By the way, are the technology systems supporting OPT & KQED Y2K-OK?

> "As a NASA engineer who has studied this problem extensively, I can say that your decision to broadcast this program appears to have been made without soliciting opinions from the full spectrum of Y2K experts. I am quite concerned that this program appears to have been intended to reflect the agenda of a certain group. My questions to you is "Who funded this program and what were their motives?"

> "I hope some other PBS station decides to investigate how such erroneous and misleading statements from OPT could find their way onto national TV. The resources OPT expended on fancy graphics would have been better spent communcating the likely probability and possible severity of Y2K problems. Whatever happened to true investigative journalism? Cringely is sure no Woodward and Bernstein.

"Questioning futher financial support of "Public" television,

Brian Smith" Brian -----

-- Brian E. Smith (besmith@mail.arc.nasa.gov), October 27, 1999.

Just have your checkbook ready, and enjoy the new millenium!!

-- Robert X. Cringely (my.asshole.is@my.mouth), October 27, 1999.

Cherri --

Guess we have established your 'bono-fiddies' well enough at this point. There are more qualified engineers on this forum than myself and I will bow to their expertise. Your (Cherri) expertise is certainly not in question with me -- you have none.

As a fellow with seven years systems engineering experience doing embedded systems, seven years experience as a software engineer, and seven years experience as a systems analyst... I want to tell you the story that made me realize how serious things were going to be.

In 1997 a gentleman was testifying before congress about y2k issues. He held up a single computer board. He said that the board only cost about $50.00 and that it had the CDC problem. He said that there was one in every pressure control valve in every pipeline in the world. He said that wasn't really a problem because swapping them out only took about four hours and most oil pipelines would be fixed by the year 2000. Then he said, "it." And that is when I got, "it." He said but it is a problem when the pressure control unit is at the bottom of the North Sea. He said, "You see, diving in the North Sea is a deep water/cold water dive. It takes a day to change one of them out. It costs $36,000.00 to change one out. There are thousands of them and unfortunatly, if we started today (1997) and contracted every diver in the world qualified to do the work, it would not be complete by the year 2000." Are you getting it yet Cherri... (sung to refrain of alices restaurant).

Well Cherri, that is when my engineering thought processes kicked in and I asked myself, well what about the pipe lines in Mexico, Venesula, Oman, Iraq, Saudi, Alaska, those under the Gulf of Mexico... and on and on and on... They will all be fixed, right. Shoot it won't reduce the flow by more than five or ten percent... Right? What does that really mean?

Well it seems that the OPEC decided to reduce production already. This drives the cost of everything up. Western society seems to run on oil, as it were. Fuel now is $1.30 per gallon for low test.

So in January production is reduced by another five maybe ten percent. We are looking in the short term at maybe another 20 cents per gallon and low test looks to weigh in at $1.50 in Janurary...

Execpt for one thing Cherri, there is ONE OF THOSE BOARDS IN EVERY PRESSUER VALVE IN EVERY PIPELINE, IN THE WORLD. Every dock that pumps oil from storage containers has them. Every tanker has them. Every damn pipeline moving petroleum everywhere. (Sung to the tune of our house by CSNY)

Cherri -- that is a broad stroke picture of the ability of this system to move oil, in winter in the northern hemisphere... (Sung to the tune of Wooden Ships by CSNY)

So Cherri, how many times did you vote for Bill anyway? Fool you once you were just a fool. Fool you twice, you are a dedicated fool. If he fools you again, you are vermin.

-- (...@.......), October 27, 1999.

jody: Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 27, 1999.

Oh well, I still haven't seen the show. That's the problem with this damned dish, we don't get local stuff! And the local PBS just doesn't cut it on the antenna. Didn't this change? Didn't I hear something about sat. cos. now being able to offer regular network TV stuff?

Anyway, this sounds like Cringely has turned polly. It's kind of a shock to me. In a few other threads, I pointed out that even Gary North ignored Cringely's early warnings. He really was an original doomer. I guess he now has the opinion that sooooo much work has been done, that Y2K is no longer a problem. I wish I had that opinion.

But hey, that's his current view. I've enjoyed his column for over a decade (actually, it was about 8 years, since I just learned that he no longer writes "his" column). I liked his mini series, and look forward to the update. It's been a long relationship (not as long as I first thought), so I guess I've got to cut him at least a little slack. I just wish he didn't make that stupid remark about no need to stock at least some food. That really pissed me off. I would call him a moron, but I know better, I think...

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 27, 1999.

And KOS, I have a full-back sized friend (not female) named Jody. Be careful! <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 27, 1999.