Subject:	Re: Y2k Stock Crash Cancelled
Date:	1999/10/22
Author:	cory hamasaki <kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net>
	Posting History

On Fri, 22 Oct 1999 03:05:27, bks@netcom.com (Bradley K. Sherman) wrote:   > In article <19991021223203.16250.00000248@ng-fc1.aol.com>, > ElmerFin <elmerfin@aol.com> wrote: > > bks@netcom.com  (Bradley K. Sherman) wrote: > >>Wow, that IBM-initiated stock market crash was a dilly. > >>Dow Jones now up only 11% year-to-date. > > > >As the expert on such matters, does this qualify as a Y2K story for this week? > > That, plus the Nikkei up around 17.6k again, plus Rick Cowles > dropping out of Y2k, plus Jocelyn Amon dropping out of Y2k are > the contenders so far.   But -bksie-,   "Lawrence Gershwin of the Central Intelligence Agency said Y2K could cause 'widespread, possibly prolonged disruptions in vital services that could have serious humanitarian and economic consequences' in ill-prepared lands."   I mean, like, what does it matter if Cowles or Amon (who only registers on our Radar because she has an unusual name) drop out, drop up, sprout wings and fly away like birdies.   What part of Gershwin's testimony do you handwave away with those flippy hand motions?   Put it together, Nevada, January to October, a simple receivable/payments system, hopelessly snarled for months; Nevada again, license renewals, a trivial system but wacko for months.  Extrapolate that to entire countries doing the Polly thing.    It's one thing if you're wealthy, a prepper, or are comfortably self-sufficient in the wilds of southern Virginia.   It's another matter if you're dependant on the massa, the system, the welfare, the job at the plant and the economy collapses.  Some parts of the system will fail for months, perhaps years.   If there is a widespread and persisting economic de-evolution, what then.  I'm not worried about IT failures at Liz Claiborne, Coca-Cola, or the Nevada DMV.  No one entity is a lynchpin.  The problem is grit in the system, errors becoming the rule rather than the exception.   Computers are an almost frictionless system, cheap to run, close to perpetual motion.  This fools the pollies into thinking that they have discovered a new law of the universe, that past performance does indicate future results.   The Polly view is the "first system" confidence of a nubie programmer, the 5-10 year experienced person who did a little coding and can brute force an application into submission.  Lightweights, kid coders, green as grass and about to be mowed.   Someone with decades on large systems and in depth experience doesn't make that mistake, isn't seduced by the speed, ease, reliability of computers.  We've seen systems turn on their masters, stubborly refuse to perform, resist our best efforts at debugging, performance analysis, and renovation.   When the FAA, Samsonite, Hershey, Oxford, Bang and Olufsen, eBay, have IT failures because they didn't test enough, they didn't run parallel long enough, they didn't maintain a parallel system, it doesn't surprise us.   We're not like the pollies who froth at the mouth, roll around, kicking, screaming, "it can't happen, this is a special case" or stranger, "it always happens like this, they did it on purpose because..."  Because? Because what?  Because they're idiots?   (the best are the ones who say that *they* do it that way.  That really has me confused.)   70 days, 1699 hours, then it starts.    Maybe the remediation fairy will come, wave her magic wand.  I don't think so.  This has never happened before.  This is unknown territory, here there be dragons.   cory hamasaki http://www.kiyoinc.com/current.html 

-- a (a@a.a), October 22, 1999

Answers

I read Rick Cowles forum everyday and I sure don't know about his leaving y2k. But then I don't quite understand what the rant above is about anyway. sounds like someone was dipping into the medicinal preps!! Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 22, 1999.

Taz, I assure you, reports of my death and/or leaving the Y2k issue are premature. Some folks on the dark side are having spasms over the change from euy2k.com to energyland.net. ;-) I guess they're just catching up. The site change happened two months a

-- Rick Cowles (rick@csamerica.com), October 22, 1999.

The Polly view is the "first system" confidence of a nubie programmer, the 5-10 year experienced person who did a little coding and can brute force an application into submission. Lightweights, kid coders, green as grass and about to be mowed.

Cory - it's amazingly seductive, isn't it? When it all works correctly - it IS amazing. Just like perpetual motion. Thought into reality. Talk about liquidity. The grass almost mows itself!

But ooooh, soooooo fragile. Gossamer, like a spider's web.

And when it breaks - soooooo demanding. Just DO what I MEAN, your STUPID machine. The slightest flaw in logic, a slight deviation from the TRUTH and 00000.

The promise is so seductive. The potential is so incredible. Too bad our efforts fall short.

10 weeks. Then we will see just who really is disconnected from reality.

-- Greg (balzer@lanset.com), October 22, 1999.

Yep, no question about it: Pollies are really stupid.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 23, 1999.