Big Blue, y2k ,& the market

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All of the sudden, IBM now has y2k issues. It has stated this publicly. It will affect their bottom line for the next 2Q's. This will be the begining of the y2k market slide. Strap in, and hold on for the next few weeks!

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), October 21, 1999

Answers

The network news is reporting that they expect Wall Street may have a rough time today because IBM said it expects profits to be down next quarter, despite excellent earnings this quarter. Same with Amgen. They had great earnings this quarter but reported they expect lower profits next quarter. This talk of "lower profits next quarter" appears to be spooking the market.

-- nothing (better@to.do), October 21, 1999.

It looks like about half of the major foreign markets are down. This could be a really interesting day on Wall Street.

-- nothing (better@to.do), October 21, 1999.

IBM has "mucho" Y2K remediation contracts with fortune 500 companies that will be winding down. THat should also impact future earnings.

-- WAtcher4 (anon@anon.com), October 21, 1999.

Flame, get out your umbrella, I was down there last night.....

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 21, 1999.


Market is sure getting volatile. This should be a very interesting day for those of us who are wondering what the market thinks of Y2k.

It will head lower for the open but someone is going to downplay the Y2K issue so it might reverse. At least we should be hearing thoughts on Y2k outlooks from many movers and shakers. Going to be an enlightening day.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), October 21, 1999.



Yeah. I think there are some desperate powerful people out there wo work with a vengeance pulling strings to prop the market up when it looks like it may go into a free fall. I figure sooner or later, no amount of propping will hold it up...it's just a matter of when it will dive.

-- nothing (better@to.do), October 21, 1999.

Flame,

The harbinger----------IBM----------could not be more perfect!

The first behemoth in computer hardware is the one that comes out with the first admission of that dreaded,feared,ignored Y word.

Suspect the Y word will become more frequently spoken now.

You are correct oh great one!! hold on!!

-- D.B. (dciinc@aol.com), October 21, 1999.


DOW -189.65 10202.71 -1.82%
NASDAQ -60.82 2727.31 -2.18%
S&P 500 -19.47 1269.96 -1.51%
BOND 7/16 97 5/8 6.30%
last updated at 10/21/1999 9:48 a

Wall Street's Big Blues
9:47 a ET
Tech stocks tumbled and took the broader market with them Thursday after IBM said profits would be weaker than analysts' forecasts in coming quarters due to Y2K concerns. The Dow industrials lost 200 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite sank about 60, both declines of about 2 percent. Shares of IBM, the world's largest computer maker, sank about 15 percent.

oopsie

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 21, 1999.


Tell me if my sensitivities are overreacting on this one, But The admission from IBM (imho) is HUUUUUUUGE as far as possibly being the crack in the dam. How symbolic!!

-- D.B. (dciinc@aol.com), October 21, 1999.

Went Mac a long time ago

-- feet up (sitting@pretty.cool), October 21, 1999.


Well, you can see why ALL companies will probably try to lie about both remediation and future profits and growth.

Mention the "Y" word and your stock takes a massive drop.

Wonder if anyone else will dare tell the truth for the rest of the year.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), October 21, 1999.


Good point Hamster,

The IBM admission just may be enough though to get the snowball rolling--with at least the self-fullfilling prophecy TPTB our Terrified of.

After all the self-fullfilling thingy was their whole reason for not suggesting the public prepare.

-- Dave Butts (dciinc@aol.com), October 21, 1999.


In light of IBM's forecast, I am passing on the following is a transcript of an email that I sent to tech analyst/500 pound gorilla/ long time friend on Wall St yesterday...

Hey [friend's name]:

Saw you on TV. Looked good, but if anyone was paying attention they might conclude you've got to dial up your meds. Let me see if this chronology makes sense:

1. Ballmer says MSFT is overpriced.

2. [friends name] -- the 500 pound gorilla of MSFT analysis -- says indirectly through another [company name] person that MSFT will disappoint in the near term.

3. Dell announces that PC sales will be a problem.

4. MSFT announces what Wall St. sees as an excellent earnings report. ([friend's name] confirms with a totally straight face.)

5. MSFT shows an unprecedented enthusiasm for future prospects and attributes their uncharacteristic euphoria to robust PC sales.

[Today I would add "6. IBM projects near-term problems."]

[friend's name, who's on drugs and who's not? (i.e., does this make sense?) An enquiring mind really wants to know. Dave still agrees with Greenspan -- this market is not healthy.

PS -- Don't forget: Have your nanny go out and cover your ass for the essentials -- food, water, heat, toilet paper, and meds. (It would be a shame if you had to wipe your butt with shares of [company name].) For a guy of your wealth, there is absolutely zero -- zero -- downside to doing this. I will gladly eat crow if necessary when this is all over.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), October 21, 1999.


IBM's "Dope Slap"

NEW YORK (CNNfn) - International Business Machines Corp. reported higher third-quarter profits Wednesday, but the results were overshadowed by a warning that fourth-quarter and fiscal 2000 first-quarter results will fall well below analysts' estimates.

News of the profit shortfall, which IBM attributed to Year-2000 concerns, sent shares of Big Blue tumbling more than 10 points in after-hours trade and likely will send the markets reeling when trading begins Thursday.

"It's a disaster," said Dan Niles, technology analyst at BancBoston Robertson Stephens. "They told us three months ago that Y2K isn't going to have any effect on them at all. They miss this quarter, now they're saying the next quarter is going to be even worse and that the first quarter will have even more losses.

BancBoston's Dan Niles, who previously downgraded his rating on IBM's stock to "long-term attractive," said the company should not have been taken by surprise by a Y2K-related slowdown.

=====================

Then, Dan had this to say....

BancBoston's Dan Niles, who previously downgraded his rating on Pollyannas from intentionally ignorant to invincibly ignorant ," said those morons should not have been taken by surprise by Y2K. '

LOL LOL

"Taken by surprise' ? Huh? Say what?? All those ' hard working professionals' at IBM were "taken by surprise'? You mean that they could not see what was happening to their company right in front of their noses? And you expect them to understand what is happening to their IT systems AND tell the truth about it which would devastate their stock price?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAAHAHA!!

The calculated stupidity of pollyannas is so laughably funny as to make me choke. All along I have said that they CAN NOT be trusted to tell the truth where their stock price is concerned , and that has been proven true in SPADES. They lied their asses off or they are clueless idiots. Neither of those two choices is particularly tasty . It's all about money. If it would seriously affect their bottom line, they will NOT tell the truth in a forthright and honest fashion. They will hem, haw, hedge and spin. But, they will not say anything that will 'correct' their stock.

And they are lying about their remediation results as well.

Won't be long now. So long suckers.

http://cnnfn.com/1999/10/20/news/ibm/
--
Paul Milne

-----------------------------------------------------

IBM About To Be The Bloodbath Leader

Yup, the lying scumbags told everyone that Y2k would have NO effect on them. Nope, none at all. And guess, what? They lied their asses off and all you ignorant stockholders believed them. And now, quarter after quarter is going to show DISASTROUS results.

So their 'self-assessment' as to their profits was completely FUBAR.

And all you ASSININE Polyannas believe that their Y2K 'self-assessment' is to be treated as if it is 'accurate'?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHH!

I say again....

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

Just like I have repeatedly admonished right from the beginning....

It is all going to come out and pollyannas are going to doing a great big collective 'Dope Slap'.

If they did not tell the truth about how Y2k affected their bottom line, they have NOT told the truth about how Y2K wil affect them in the business world because that is ALL ABOUT THEIR BOTTOM LINE. It is their ULTRIMATE bottom line. They have lied through their teeth. They have been caught.

We're VEWWWY VEWWWY cwose now. Hehehehehehehehe

Watch the very likely beating that the DOW takes tommorrow and Friday.
--
Paul Milne
------------------------------------------------------------------

Crash And Burn Time

IBM made their earnings announcement AFTER the market closed today... Guess why?

=====================

Wednesday October 20, 4:32 pm Eastern Time
NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters)

BILL MILTON, COMPUTER ANALYST AT BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN & CO.

``We're going to get some rough sledding here with revenues being lighter than expected and the Y2K problem hurting the fourth quarter.''

``It seems like they're talking down the fourth quarter.''

DAN NILES, ANALYST WITH BANC BOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS

``This is even uglier than I expected. This is not IBM specific, it's an industrywide problem and they're finally admitting that they have issues. We're going to have to take our numbers down. This is what we were looking for.''

``I thought they would squeak through on the third quarter.''

``They said they're blowing the fourth quarter even worse than I had expected.''

================================

What does "This is even uglier than I expected' mean? Or, "...even worse than I had expected"?

The ONLY thing that has been holding the market up is the Blue Chips. The overwhelming majority of the rest of stocks are down on the year. Only the die-hard fanatic ignorami clinging to wildly overvalued stocks keep this bloated market alive.

It is suicide to 'buy and hold' now just like it was in 1929.

It is almost crash and burn time.

All aboard, ignorami.
There are still a few tickets on the flaming death train to Club Dead.

So long suckers.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991020/zb.html
--
Paul Milne
----------------------------------------------------------

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), October 21, 1999.


the y2k "issue" that ibm stated was not that there were "problems", but, that companies were putting off purchases of equipment until after the new year. a y2k related issue, but, not the one that all are trying to infer. lets stick to the known facts, folks

-- theletterz (theletterz@yahoo.com), October 21, 1999.


***

Thanks for the post FLAME AWAY.

Thanks also to A&L. I always get such kick out of reading P.M.

He is such a hoot. No doubt about what he means.

***

The dam is going to break on denial soon. Don't be downstream.

***

The true denialist wouldn't even notice if his own hair was on fire.

Some on Wall Street don't have any hair left.

***

Keep listening and watching. More to come. Much more.

***

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 21, 1999.


theletterz -- What you are missing is that to some people

*************IMAGE IS EVERYTHING****************

and nothing else matters.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 21, 1999.


Is theletterz correct with his statement that IBM's y2k "issue" is due to companies future purchases or are they having problems with production lines? I could understand IBM having to alter their forecasts if they are not locking in orders from companies on new Mainframes, Services, etc. But is it really fare to characterize that this sudden change in earning(s) forecast provides info on how their manufacturing and internal support mechanisms are faring?

-- theletterz (theletterz@yahoo.com), October 21, 1999.

-- paul dirac (pdirac@hotmail.com), October 21, 1999.


This bears repeating.

We're VEWWWY VEWWWY cwose now. Hehehehehehehehe

Watch the very likely beating that the DOW takes tommorrow and Friday. -- Paul Milne

God... I love this place!

-- John F. (millenniumadrenaline@hotmail.com), October 21, 1999.


Indeed. It's all over for the Dow this time!!!

All aboard, ignorami. There are still a few tickets on the flaming death train to Club Dead.

So long suckers. -- Paul Milne

So long suckers!!! LOL LOL!!!!

-- (brett@miklos.org), October 21, 1999.


paul, the ibm release stated NOTHING about production lines. it was quite specific that it was due to companies putting off purchases. for the record, i'm a RGI, just can't beleive the over reaction to this...on second thought, i can beleive... i think i'll go re-arrange the deck chairs on the titanic now...

-- theletterz (theletterz@yahoo.com), October 21, 1999.

Brett,

YUP... It sure was a disasterous day on Wall Street. This was the big one!! Panice all over the place. Oh wait, the NASDAQ is up 13 at the close and the DOW lost a measly 90 points.

UM, gold is doing really well too I see. Down 25 in two weeks.

-- (Where'sthe@beef.com), October 21, 1999.


This Thurs. am I heard the news report that the IBM (and the market) was down because Y2K expenditures were cutting into their earnings report and outlook.

By late afternoon (and I don't know if I was listening to the same radio station by then) the news was spinning it like this: IBM was down because of "Y2K related fears effecting sales". Making it sound to Joe Sixpack (do they listen to the news?) that people weren't buying computers because they were worried about Y2K.

sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), October 21, 1999.


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