DOW up 213.07 at 11:08 ET; what happened?

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Hello,

I was wondering what everyone's take is on the dow's rebound. Most of the post I read indicated the stock markets were "crashing". Doesn't look like a crash right now.....

Well???? What's your take???

-- Genius (codeslinger@work.now), October 19, 1999

Answers

Sounds like the goldbugs couldnt scare enough people to dump before the CPI came out and now they ran out of ammo to talk the equity markets down.

Anyone who shouts "The market is crashing" is misinformed on how the market works today.

Y2k is still not in the sights of the bull markets view.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), October 19, 1999.


Hey genius,

Smoke screen to keep Gold from falling.

The market is the best comedy going today who needs seinfeld?

its up--200---its down 200-- quite amusing actually--some really genius advice----(more comedy) "Stay in for the long Haul"

LOL Its a cattle call! MOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

-- D.B. (dciinc@aol.com), October 19, 1999.


Bubble? We don't have no stinking bubble! I find American's attention span to be about this "-" long. Yet, their greed and sef absorption are immeasurable.

-- Wild Celt (pindrop@pop.com), October 19, 1999.

Bubble? We don't have no stinking bubble! I find American's attention span to be about this "-" long. Yet, their greed and self absorption are immeasurable.

-- Wild Celt (pindrop@pop.com), October 19, 1999.

My take, as a completely impartial, non-involved (directly) market watcher is that the whole system is crazy. It is unstable and bound to crash by any rational system of analysis.

But WHEN is beyond a definitive answer. Right now, peoples hope, greed, and plain foolish speculation are still winning the day.

Thats OK with me, but even if Y2K doesn't crash it, it will undergo "correction" in the near future (months to even years) ---- or else we can all invest, live like kings, and retire early based on nothing but hot air and this Ponzi scheme. It "should" have crashed a long time ago, hence all the erroneous predictions. But I'm realistic enough to know that strange and weird things happen, so am not really surorised its still up .... not to mention possible government manipulation (even more than usual, I mean).

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), October 19, 1999.



Based on the links provided in this forum to qualified researchers and speakers on the subject, I'd remind you that in Christian mythology Lucifer is never an obvious ugly monster but is lovely, charming, and sutble. In short, a crash doesn't happen in a day, it's very deceiving as it builds, it does rally upwards, and then in a disastrous sweep downward it crashes. The pattern is odd enough to stand out which gives experts the opportunity to stategically position themselves to prey and obtain great sums for themselves in the crash. The money in a crash doesn't vanish like a mist but does go into someones pocket. The 1929 crash pattern is in existence and has been for some time giving experts ample time for stategy.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 19, 1999.

Hasn't the market already crashed over a thousand points from it's high? I don't understand the confusion here. Seems pretty simple to me.

-- (Sheeple@bla.com), October 19, 1999.

From what I heard, the Consumer Price Index came in as expected and there is a short covering rally. People don't expect it to last very long because we are almost at resistance. Greenspan speaks later today and trade deficit numbers are out soon.

-- RWaldock (RWaldock@nomail.com), October 19, 1999.

The DOW has retraced or corrected over 10 percent, so has the nasdaq if my calcs are right, but this is never a crash.

Does anyone remember years ago when CNBC used to have those Special Market Wraps whenever the market moved more than 5% in one day. Used to see that alot back in the 80's and the world hardly noticed.

We need to see a DOW well below 9000 before it means anything.

The market is stupid with volatility right now, note the 90+ point rise yesterday just before the close. Anything can turn the market around in either direction.

Right now CNN & Company is doing a Y2k stock market selling segment and ALL of the ladies are saying Y2k is a minor issue that will pass very quickly and if you sell now you wont be able to get back in at a low price. NONE of them said Y2k is worth paying attention to and you should filter out the noise when thinking about stocks. So how many of you really think Y2k is the big issue on the minds of the investor right now?.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), October 19, 1999.


What happened? The loony birds on this loony bin proved their ignorance once again, big surprize!

Gawd I think if the crazies here started claiming the market was going UP I would sell instantly everything I hold! You want a good read on what is going to happen? Just read TurdBomb2000 forum and do the OPPOSITE!

MWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

-- Evil Genius (Notthes@me.asgeniuscodeslinger), October 19, 1999.



Overall, the S&P is down 16% since early July, and continous slowly and steadily down.....

In the past week, we've lost another 6+ percent of (supposed) value - but the fundemental value of the companies in these indexes has't changed, the value of their customers, markets, and empolyees hasn't changed - only the perceived value of the company in the "eyes" of the people buying stock.

That is the bubble - the real value of the actual "things" represented by the stock (the companies involved) is only around 6000-7000. Everything above that figure (obviously an estimate) is speculation based on retirement money, insurance money, and investment money pouring in to the market over the past 5 years.

With a "fixed" number of things, and more money seeking to buy those same things - you get inflated prices, not real value.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 19, 1999.


That was all true last year also, Robert. BTW, when did you move to Marietta?

-- Anita (notgiving@anymore.com), October 19, 1999.

I feel very confident it is going to crash horrifically and historically because the over all IQ point of the nation has been crashing for years. Americans have become an emotional and not intellectual people which defines them as peasants.

Do you see protests in the streets to reverse the tobacco tax so the manufacturers deflate price? No.

Do you see protests in the streets to expand the global economy? No.

Do you see protests in the streets to raise the currency value of some strategic 3rd world nations? No.

They will be doing all 3 things mentioned but not until they have suffered greatly. There will be a ferocious recession and due to the wild card of Y2K it will go into a depression. That depression will be so chronic that normalcy will be redefined to accept it as the new American standard of living. By the time the peasants have gained a clue, if ever at all, it will be too late.

In the decline the peasants will be making many nanny government demands all of which are costly and none that the largest debtor nation can afford. Taxation will be on gas, energy, and just about any choice or item one can think of to further the spiral downward, until they find themselves sitting on park blankets selling chiclets individually. It is what one expects from a nation that scores on the level of Africa and it is what happens to people who score on the level of Africa. A blanket in the park is right and fitting for people on the intellectual level of a 3rd world continent. It is against all reasoning that people who cannot score as even a second class nation sit comfy cozy in a prosperous society.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 19, 1999.


Paul Volker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, know as the man who prevented the USA from falling into hyperinflation in the early 1980's, said this Spring that "the entire world economy" was resting indirectly on the share price "performance of 50 US stocks, half of which had never shown a profit".

So I'd say that if there ever was a case for manipulation in a market place then today would be it and the US stock markets would be it. They can't afford to let us crash until they have made every effort to protect the biggest players.

IMO Y2K crash will be the 'scapegoat' for this bubble bursting and the manipulation will continue until TPTB decide to start that stampede as an excuse for all the highly unscrupulous things which have been going on here for quite a while.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), October 19, 1999.


What happened? Well, the 'bigger fool' theory is not a theory, it's a fact.

MFU

-- Man From Uncle 1999 (mfu1999@hotmail.com), October 19, 1999.



None of this is a crash. However, yesterday was NOT healthy market either. I called down to Smith Barney for laughs and they concur. Today is a classic short squeeze as noted above. People bet on a bad CPI and lost; now they have to cover. If I were long on equities (which I'm not), I would be nervous.

There are two fundamentally different ways that I see a market crash due to y2k: (1) A panic sell-off could send everybody heading for the doors all at once. This would be impressive, but is not the only way to get creamed. (2) A disappearance of buyers seems more probable to me. Here's how it works. Even a polly might hold off purchasing stocks as we get closer to D-Day. The result is that the market hits a pocket in which there are simply no buyers in sight. The resulting large drop in market cap with low volume is a disaster because it doesn't generate lots of cash along the way -- destruction of "wealth" pure and simple. I can hear everybody thinking out loud: "I'll jump back in on January 3rd when it's safe." Who in their right mind will be buying weeks before the "CDC"? Rumors of fund managers putting a moratorium on buying after thanksgiving are circulating and, if true, are very ominous indeed.

While I'm babbling, let me point out another ominous trend that has become clear (to me) only in the last few weeks. Major corporations like Intel and GE, rather than paying dividends, are putting their cash to work. How? They are investing in the stock market. According to Barrons, Intel owns 4.8 billion dollars worth of tech stocks (lots of internets). They are meeting earnings estimates by selling off stocks and taking capital gains. The conclusion is profound: these companies not only have rediculous p/e ratios, but they are generating their earnings by speculating in companies that have NO earnings. If this isn't a bubble, I don't know what is.

Don't get me going on the aggressive accounting practices behind one- time charges that are being used to generate piles of cash for a rainy day (i.e., a day when earnings must be created because they aren't there.)

The DGIs on Wall St. continue to astonish me. I have spent upwards of 5-6 hours discussing y2k with one of the biggest tech gorillas on Wall St. (I would love to give details, because he really is impressive. In fact, he played a prominent role in yesterdays tech wreck.) Nevertheless, he's a smart guy and he listens carefully. His bottom line is that he thinks that I MAY be underestimating the effectiveness of workarounds. Let's hope he's right, but I don't think so.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), October 19, 1999.


The equity markets have not "crashed", but they have almost certainly entered a bear market. A bear market is most accurately defined as a market that rallies repeatedly, but where those rallies repeatedly fail to achieve new highs. To a bull, every rally is bullish.

The DJIA is measured on 30 corporations. There are thousands of publically traded companies. The vast majority of those companies are trading well off their 52-week highs. Only a few stocks are rallying to new highs. OTOH, new 52-week lows are increasing very rapidly.

At this time, looking at stocks only through the lens of the DJIA is like looking at the moon when it is in the last quarter. It still throws a lot of light, even when 3/4 of it is in darkness. We passed the full moon stage back in July, 1997.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 19, 1999.


The supposed rally (so far, 2:00 EST) has only raised the S&P back to approximately where it finished on Thursday....not much of a rally, it would appear, if it only eliminated the losses of Friday and (the little gain of late Monday.

Regardless, the future will unravel - and it appears very unstable for several more months. After mid-late February, perhaps things will be more predictable. The is no rule or absolute that says the drop (if it occurs at all - which I most definitely think will occur!) will occur in mid-late October.

Be patient, but don't speculate - on any future trends - with any money you cannot afford to have already lost.

News stories last night uniformly emphasized "long term" - over, and over, and over again. Implies "short term" won't be so good.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 19, 1999.


DJIA - +92 @ 1400 MST...

snoozin'...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), October 19, 1999.


Markets got into the last part of the session and lost some air:

Briefing Room

Stocks Giving Back Gains as Market Turns Into Last Hour of Trading

10/19/99 3:16 PM ET

Since the last update, the market has taken a bit of a turn. The Dow has skidded a little, mildly shedding some gains as investors start to sell. Earlier, Alan Greenspan spoke to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. This morning, the Labor Department released Consumer Price Index figures in line with estimates.

The market is trying to figure out how those two pieces fit into the larger inflationary picture. As a result, the Dow has been rising and falling within a 30-point range for the past couple hours before trailing off. The Nasdaq Composite was more decisive and took a Chevy Chase-sized pratfall, shedding close to 30 points in a half-hour.

[snip]

Market Internals

Internals have taken a step back in the last hour. They're still solid, but they looked better this morning.

New York Stock Exchange: 1,713 advancers, 1,262 decliners, 700 million shares. 17 new 52-week highs, 223 new lows.

Nasdaq Stock Market: 2,123 advancers, 1,645 decliners, 838 million shares. 43 new highs, 99 new lows.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 19, 1999.


http://www.decisionpoint.com/DailyCharts/DailyMenu.html

Hope not to sound repetitious, but look at ANY technical chart or index graph, and tell me this is a BULL market.

24% of all stocks are ABOVE their 200-day M.A.!

Note that some graphs are a day late being posted--that's why the post above mine may show numbers different from the chart site for today. THIS IS A BEAR MARKET. PERIOD. THAT IS EVEN CONFIRMED BY THE DOW THEORY! ALL other indicators back it up.

BTW, it amazes me how stupid the sheeple really are when I saw the POSITIVE reaction to the 0.4% CPI number today, when it is the last, TRAILING indicator.

Do they think that the PPI index last week that had inflation well over 1% for the month somehow evaporated? It is simply working its way thru the pipeline to the WHOLESALE price index, then on to the CONSUMER price index.

Yet the turds on TV I saw today put the usual positive BS spin on that this low(?) number means now that Greedspin won't have to raise rates!

Well, first of all, he's WAY behind the curve. The FED controls ONLY short-term rates, and the BOND (READ:LONG-TERM) markets have already jacked rates up because they smell inflation.

Secondly, as I said, THE CPI is a rear-view mirror view of inflation! The steep rates are yet to come. With stupid, knee-jerk sheeple who believe every jaw-flap of crap that the "news" spews out, is it any wonder we have a BUBBLE, despite being down 10% from the high?

The technicals still STINK. Something will finally FORCE reality onto those who are dreaming inside a bubble.

Fair value for the DJIA would be no more than 3500 or so.

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 19, 1999.


The original thread began last week -Thursday/Friday, I think - but some/many/most/all of the comments are valid through today (Wednesday).

The past four trading days, prices have risen dramatically in the first few minutes of trading (overnight "buy" orders?) then have either sunk slowly during the day, or (as today) been just "floating" at a steady postion.

Question - for those who know more than I - who is placing these "buy" orders overnight? US citizens, companies, and investors; or overseas markets?

By volume, how much are these first few orders? Could they be an artificial "boost" of just a few prices at the bell to "inflate" or "influence" subsequent behavior?

What has market volume been the past three weeks - is there an indicator that could show people are simply "waiting" right now until things stabilize more - not buying huge numbers of stocks, but not selling rashly or being panicked into buying either by brokers who are trying to reignite their falling commissions?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), October 20, 1999.


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