Big Surprise! The Stock Market Continues...

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I've got a wife that is so sure that it's TEOTWAWKI, I have to keep reminding her that we may still have to make our land payments after 1/1/00.

I've watched a number of "critical dates" come and go: Jan 31, 1999, April 15th, 1999, August 22, 1999, October 1st, 1999....

Large numbers of posts keep telling us that Gold will be at $1000/oz by the end of the year and TODAY the stock market was going to CRASH.

What do all these predictions mean? Nothing, and that's the point. Nobody knows the future and the amateurs are pretty-much always wrong. The market rose and Gold is still at a traditionally low price.

The one thing that you can count on is that the government will lie to us whenever it suits those in charge, whether the subject be Cambodia, Clinton's sex life, Waco or Y2K.

Gary North (whom I greatly admire) has been reduced to anicdotal stories and suposition. No more exposes - you notice the difference?

I have a theory:

If Y2K were as hard to overcome as the doomers say, there would have been a whistle-blower of significance from SSA or GM, or Microsoft, or CIA telling us: "It's all a sham and National Guard will be taking our horded food on December 1st and here's the documents proving the plans"

Instead, we get jerks telling us the stock market is tanking today and those who stay in are idiots.

We're giving way too much attention to know-nothings. These guys aren't experts in investing, 'cuz there aint any such animal, Gary doesn't understand all the code problem ramifications and the government can't be trusted.

Rather than argue over the stock market, why not spend our energy making others aware of the benefits of preparedness, sharing cost-saving ideas and making our future more secure.

So, here's my investment advice:

Go out and buy a 100 pound sack of green coffee from an inporter for $120. Roast it yourself in a air-pop popcorn popper as needed and save $800 on that 100 pounds (about a year's supply for me). Where else are you assured of a 800% return on your money?

-- El Coyote (ElCoyote@Knowitall.com), October 18, 1999

Answers

ROFL, coyote. Obviously, the market is comprised of so many variables that it frustrates most attempts to make profits via market timing. If am a bear by nature. Yet I don't relish the idea of being correct, simply that recessions/depressions are not fun to deal with.

Regards

-- haha (haha@haha.com), October 18, 1999.


So this was a 'good' day for the market, eh? Check out the internals. Not a pretty site.

As for those supposed 'insiders' - they will appear in due time.

Y2k cannot be explained in 30 seconds, but the gov't woman of D.C. (forget her name and position) did a pretty good job when she mentioned (by accident I believe) that "D.C. is expecting to suffer 2 week blackouts, same as the national average."

The market will tank - guaranteed. That is was not "TODAY" will give little comfort after the crash + bear decimates the middle-class.

-- Me (me@me.me), October 18, 1999.


I love your attitude and, in my opinion, you are so right.

-- m l ebinger (ebinger@deltaville.net), October 18, 1999.

Coyote says: If Y2K were as hard to overcome as the doomers say, there would have been a whistle-blower of significance from SSA or GM, or Microsoft, or CIA telling us: "It's all a sham and National Guard will be taking our horded food on December 1st and here's the documents proving the plans"

Coyote, there are such persons. Lawrence Gershwin, science officer of the National Intelligence Council, has reported on the problems expected from countries such as Russia, China, and the Ukraine. In addition Terrence Maynard, chief of the FBI/CIA infrastructure protection office has reported on the Y2K-Hacker threat to the U.S. digital infrastructure.

Gershwin and Maynard might not be public names like Bill Gates or Jayne Fonda but their reports are available. I watched Gershwin testify to congress on CSPAN2. The information is out there, the popular press is ignoring the information because Y2K is too technical for them.

-- cory (kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net), October 18, 1999.


Roast 100 lbs. of coffee in a popcorn popper? How many years would that take, and how would you be able to hear the TV set?

I buy my automatic coffee in a 39 oz. can for $3.88 and it suits me fine. Do the math, it ain't worth the trouble.

Your idea in general is of course very good advice. If you buy tons of stuff when you see it on sale it is like making an investment for the future because you will undoubtedly save money, particularly with food because over the long run this always goes up.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 18, 1999.



Starbuck coffee, 1 lb. whole bean on sale $4.99/lb. have a $2.00 off coupon = $2.99 lb. Can't afford to buy one cup of coffee at Starbucks, but I can afford to get a whole lot of cups out of that one lb.

-- cafeene (caffeene@caffeeeneee.xcom), October 18, 1999.

Greenspan and Gold On October 14, 1999 Fed Chairman Greenspan delivered an extraordinary warning to bankers about the need to prepare for a finanicial crisis, market crashes and panic. The Fed Chairman's speech, "Measuring Financial Risk in the Twenty-first Century", was extraordinary in several ways :

1) The Fed Chairman sounded the alarm about a real possibility for a collapse of the financial markets. Unlike other Fed-speak, Greenspan's speech was unambiguous...his message clear. 2) The Fed Chairman pointed out that such a collapse can occur anytime...without advance notice (hint, hint...nudge,nudge). Clearly, Greenspan is warning these bankers that the potential for collapse "anytime", includes the coming weeks or months . 3) The Fed Chairman is talking openly about potential "panic" in the markets. 4) The Fed Chairman warns about "a bursting bubble" in the tradition of "Dutch tulip bulbs or Russian equities." 5) The Fed Chairman tells bankers they need to prepare for a systematic failure, across all markets, affecting "even a seemingly well-diversified portfolio."

It is extraordinary for the Fed Chairman to clearly and unambiguosly warn about market crashes, financial collapse and panic. It is extraordinary for the Fed Chairman so publicly to warn banks about the need to prepare for a finanicial crisis, market crash and panic.

What has prompted the Fed Chairman's blunt warning and urgent call for action?

First, the bankers and other financial institutions have not taken sufficient action based on Greenspan's previous warnings. As Greenspan states , "I have called attention to this risk-management challenge in a different context when discussing the roots of the international financial crises of the past two and a half years. My focus has been on the perils of risk management when periodic crises--read sharply rising risk premiums--undermine risk-management structures that fail to address them." At the time of the LTCM debacle, Greenspan issued some warning about risky financial shenanigans, including derivative trading. Greenspan warned that failure of the relatively small LTCM could lead to failure of much larger financial systems. However, after the LTCM crisis, many banks and "risk-management structures" have failed to address Greenspan's warnings.

Secondly, a new crisis, much larger than LTCM, looms before the Fed Chairman. A clue as to nature of this crisis can be found in what Greenspan, on October 14, 1999, tells the bankers to do:

"At a minimum, risk managers need to stress test the assumptions underlying their models and set aside somewhat higher contingency resources--reserves or capital--to cover the losses that will inevitably emerge from time to time when investors suffer a loss of confidence. These reserves will appear almost all the time to be a suboptimal use of capital. So do fire insurance premiums. "

The Fed Chairman wants the bankers and other "risk managers" to "stress test" their assumptions and models. Where have the words "stress test" been used in the past couple of weeks, just before Greenspan uses the same words. Ashanti Goldfields recently suffered a large drop in its stock price despite the sharp rise in gold prices. The drop in Ashanti's stock is due to Ashanti's hedging program. Recent reports indicate someone from Ashanti said that Ashanti had "stess tested" it's hedging program for a $50 rise in gold but not for a $70 rise in gold. Recent reports indicate others invloved in shorting gold or hedging had not "stress tested" their strategy. The bullion bankers are vulnerable to billion dollar losses due to rising gold prices.

The recent run-up in gold prices has caught bullion bakers, derivatives speculators, and other gold shorts in an historic squeeze of monumental proportions. The Fed Chairman, privy to specific information he can not divulge, probably sees a clear risk for financial collapse larger than the LTCM debacle...a collapse which even the Fed with all its tools can not prevent.

While he does not want to divulge company-specific horror stories, the Fed Chairman probably feels compelled to at least warn the general public in some way. And that is a reasonable explanation for his October 14 speech, publicly admonishing the bankers to reduce risk and increase reserves. Greenspan may also be thinking about his "legacy". If the financial markets collapse and some banks fail, the Fed Chairman would be able to say that he warned the banks and the public.

The media justs reports on the effects, but not the content (stark warning) of the October 14 speech. Read Greenspan's blockbuster for yourself. The text of the Oct 14 speech is at:

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/boarddocs/speeches/1999/19991014.htm

-- nospam (nospa@spam.spam), October 18, 1999.


I can make you change with PINTO beans, but if you think you're going to get kidney beans which are worth twice as much, you're off your rocker!

Well, in all seriousness, if the whole financial system goes into collapse all one can do is have some t.v dinners in the freezer, and just don't go into all upon that fateful without warning day. It'll be infested out there with cucko instant gunmen, religious apocalypse folk, and possibly some scattered revolutionary groups.

As much as some folks hope for the complete wipe out of their Visa debts and bad credit ratings, we best hope a financial melt down won't happen. They might put Bill Clinton as the face on the new currency or worse Ronald Reagan. Maybe Disney could save us by whipping out some Disney Dollars as the new currency? I'd go with Mickey Mouse before I'd go with Clinton and Reagan on the bills.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 19, 1999.


wiley coyote,

I suspect you cannot take the pressure and this is your way to vent a little steam. That is understandable as we all are experiencing the impatience and intrepidation of waiting for the potential unraveling of our way of life.

Chin up old Man!!

By the way!! you stated:

"Instead, we get jerks telling us the stock market is tanking today and those who stay in are idiots"

Correct me if I am mistaken but did'nt the stock market have one of its biggest drops ever last week??

Dont lose it coyote, we all know the waiting is maddening, but jeesh, to call people idiots that have accurately predicted something--does not exactly make you out to be the sharpest tool in the shed.

Instead of going on the attack (destructive) you can just as easily convey your frustration,annoyance,depression etc. in which case the good people here would have embraced and related with you.

But alas---no! its easier to critic others due to your frustration!

-- David Butts (dciinc@ao.com), October 19, 1999.


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