Jeez, look at Asia...

Check out this link... wait for Europe to open...

all in realtime

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999

Answers

As I said on an earlier post, I hope Greedspin has stocked up on PAMPERS(the ones rated at up to 35 lbs.). There could be a s*** tornado coming your way very soon.

-- profit_of_doom (doom@helltopay.ca), October 18, 1999.

at midnight mountain

Japan down 2%+

Korea down 4%+

Asia on average 2-3% down, and it's still early!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Wow!

Talk about an 'Ugly Monday'!

-- haha (haha@haha.com), October 18, 1999.

Greenspan is in London with the boys - one hand with a snifter of brandy, the other with a cigar...while sitting on the gold (hold/down) button of their master computer

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), October 18, 1999.

How bad is it Andy? I don't hold any paper, but *it* does of course affect my strategy. I wish, at moments of weakness, I had taken your advice and purchased AU firmware. It's all too volatile and assumes risks I cannot take, such as actually reaping the bene's I'm owed. I guess I'm from the old school. Work hard, reap what you sow, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, type of guy. Oh well. You can't lose what you never had, huh?

At least for now, my ability to assimilate information, and engineer into usable, functioning aids for survival, is still intact.

Best of luck to you pardner.

Respectfully Michael

-- michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), October 18, 1999.

Well, France is open and headed downward at 11:06 PDT

-- Claire (watchingeurope@aol.com), October 18, 1999.

Michael I think it's bad if you own paper stocks in general - Gold stocks may or may not prosper - if you can afford it you can buy gold maple leafs or philharmonics for about $335 each - if you believe what I and many other gold experts are saying then it's not too lat to buy physical gold now. If the experts are right you will not be unhappy with your purchase :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Yup France down 1.1%

Australia 2.3%!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Heyyyyy AAAAAAANNNNNNDDDDDDYYYYYYYYY & Anyone else

Careful that you don't stroke out guys & gals.

Most of the 14 Market oscillators that I follow are still primarily bearish on the DJIA technically...but only for probably another day or so. DMI remains bearish/ADX trendline remains bearish. Commodity Channel Index remains just went bearish, indicating that this move may have a few days to go or perhaps 500 points downward to spare. The Bollinger Bands however are showing a switch is developing and anticipating another bounce... though I suspect in light of all the other oscillator's that the BBs are a bit premature in here. The Momentum Indicator is showing oversold status again, but it could fall still further,anyway. I suspect so. Rate of Change shows being oversold, but it also shows further lows are ahead for Monday anyway. The Relative Strength Index is also showing oversold status but still weakly oversold and that means there is still strength for a downmove over the next day or so. MACD is VERY bearish for the next day or so, and the Volume Index suggests more new lows are ahead (probably over the next week or so) The current new low is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting further new lows are ahead.

Fast Stochastics (not reliable for timing, IMHO)indicates an upward move is building.

Slow Stochastics (more reliable) indicates an oversold market but is not reliable here as a bottom signal setter because stochastics is only reliable in marking bull market bottom retracements. We're now into a "bear market" -- basis LONG TERM...

Guys, we're not likely to see a steep drop here on Monday beyond 300 to 500 points down. I won't say we couldn't see even greater drops than 300-500 points on the DJIA but say 1,000 points or more is highly unlikely without more bad fundamental news hitting the market unexpectedly. It is also possible that this market move may stop out at -300 or more and then turn and retrace back to perhaps even positive territory during Monday's trading. It IS possible (though not likely)) to see a + day on the DJIA, if so it wouldn't be + by much. Frankly I'd expect to see on the close a range somewhere between -150 and -250. This is probably the most plausible range.

IF so, I would be more inclined to see a short term rally as the short-traders unwind their positions to take profits, IF there is no further signs fresh selling or margin call selling on Tuesday. That said, I'd figure that under such a scenario you might see a 100 point or more gain on Tuesday, depending on how low she closes Monday. Right now, its a bit early to figure out Tuesday.

Re: GOLD... GOLD had better NOT break below $310 IF the DOW is tanking because IF Gold does NOT SKYROCKET... then Gold has its own EMERGENCY PROBLEM in that the big boys are back to keeping GOLD down probably due to bank selling of long positions to cover stock losses. Banks and others might just unwind out of all other markets to cover stock losses, per the demand by Greenspan last Thur nite. In doing so, it automatically covers up the Gold market with more selling. This I suspect explains why Gold/Silver sat stupefied on Friday during the Stock turmoil. SOMEHOW, I expect more of that today in the metals. I hope not. I'd like to see her run. For me, Gold... NOW REMEMBER I BASE ALL GOLD ANALYSIS ON THE NEAREST ACTIVE TRADING MONTH, WHICH IS DECEMBER GOLD... and it NEEDS TO CRACK BACK OVER $320 quickly on the open... IF gold fools around below $320.00 til the NYSE opens... this is a bad sign for gold...it shows extreme weakness and probably confirms my suspicions about bank and funds-house liquidations to cover Friday losses. IF so, it will be a long, long day for metals.

IF gold can quickly break over $320 and hold around $325 by NYSE opening, then I think Gold would have a decent chance of locklimiting up for the day, at least for awhile... and should certainly crack back over $330.00 and race to $340.00 and over and should close above $340.

Yes, closing above $340 is extremely important here.

On the flip side... If gold loses on Monday...IF Gold closes below $310... then the Gold Bull Market will have ENDED. That's right, technically a move and close below 310 (basis December 99) would have fatal technical ramifications that will signal something seriously wrong internally within the Gold Comex pits as well as world markets.

Silver will follow gold whereever Gold leads it.

Crude appears to be in the middle of a developing trading range for awhile bouncing back and forth between $20-$25. Too many mixed signals now in the oscillators after Friday's trading.

Well, there's a FWIW from the guy who knows Murphy and his laws quite well. Somehow, I managed to keep from sawing myself off of that limb on Thursday, but it was kinda scary...with that big black bear down below me just a waitin' for supper.

Have fun watching the market and just remember the only floor traders who may survive on Monday would be those wearing their "crash helmets." Yes, even in the exchanges we must have "safety first." I'm just waiting for them to mandate seatbelt laws on their chairs! Especially over at NASDAQ. HA!

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 18, 1999.

Thanks for the analysis Dick... did you ever read my recent post explaining what is going on in the gold markets as perceived by FOA (friend of ANOTHER) over at USAGOLD?

Per his analysis he says the shorts are playing a waiting game, desperately buying time, time which is about to run out as there is no physical available... He says gold will run to $500 in no time once it unravels...

Thoughts?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

This is the link

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001azV

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Yeah, Andy, I read it and a lot of other goodies too.

I don't buy the scenarios though. Perhaps its because I've heard that same sort of song and dance for 20 years now, just a different verse. But same bottom line. The thing is, I just read a Reuters story a few hours ago that most of the Gold boys were covered on their shorts for now. A lot of the problems had been in options also that they've been able to either roll back or are sitting way, way out there.

Thus with a combination of that and the fact that Gold failed to move on Friday ... well that Friday action just about nailed down a coffin on the current technicals for this Gold bull-rally... This would also indicate that the shorts have not lost control of the gold market. As I also said earlier, stock drops may have an adverse effect on gold...IN FACT... Greenspan may have realized this and the whole reason for a stock drop was to force actions by the banks to sell off their metals both long and short positions to raise capital to cover stock losses...thereby killing 2 birds with one stone. NOW, I might be wrong on that, but its a strong suspicion of mine.

Andy, never underestimate the boys that Greenspan is running with... and btw, they're not Europeans... their globalists...and their purpose is to set up a New World Order for a strong dictator to arise greater than anything Hitler could dream of. As I see it, Y2K might be the least of our worries... All I can see is that they're still in control and will remain so barring unforeseen natural calamities like a "deep impact" or solar flare that fries the planet.

Oh, one other thing, ... I AM PERSONAL FRIENDS WITH MURPHY and I find myself out on the darndest limbs, so consider that when you read my rambling comments. Ha!

Have fun watching the action.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 18, 1999.

Thanks for replying Dick... a couple of points...

Yeah, Andy, I read it and a lot of other goodies too. I don't buy the scenarios though. Perhaps its because I've heard that same sort of song and dance for 20 years now, just a different verse. But same bottom line. The thing is, I just read a Reuters story a few

###### ding ding ding ding

REUTERS - the mouthpiece of the cabal Dick :) the controlled establishment press i.e. the big banks that are connected are gonna spread these rumours that the shorts are ok...

Did you read the other Reuters story today basically covering the Denver Gold Miners conference and basically talking up Barrick's hedge position - which as you know is absolutely disastrous - as being not a problem. Consider Murphy's letter to that Bas***D Oliphant!!!

#######

hours ago that most of the Gold boys were covered on their shorts for now. A lot of the problems had been in options also that they've been able to either roll back or are sitting way, way out there.

####### Sorry. Don't believe it Dick. #######

Thus with a combination of that and the fact that Gold failed to move on Friday ... well that Friday action just about nailed down a coffin on the current technicals for this Gold bull-rally...

####### With all due respect to all your expertise over all the years you have been in this game this is pure BS Dick.

You CAN NOT look at technicals in the rigged gold market. It just cannot be done.

Yes you can look at resistance levels and so on - but we are in a different game here now Dick, involving many many factors other than pure profit or loss...

Think about it - gold at $252 fer chrissakes.... that is NOT market supply and demand Dick :) #######

This would also indicate that the shorts have not lost control of the gold market. As I also said earlier, stock drops may have an adverse effect on gold...IN FACT... Greenspan may have realized this and the whole reason for a stock drop was to force actions by the banks to sell off their metals both long and short positions to raise capital to cover stock losses...thereby killing 2 birds with one stone. NOW, I might be wrong on that, but its a strong suspicion of mine.

####### you could be right - we'll see soon enough... #######

Andy, never underestimate the boys that Greenspan is running with... and btw, they're not Europeans... their globalists...and their purpose is to set up a New World Order for a strong dictator to arise greater than anything Hitler could dream of. As I see it, Y2K might be the least of our worries... All I can see is that they're still in control and will remain so barring unforeseen natural calamities like a "deep impact" or solar flare that fries the planet.

####### I agree they are globalists, and I agree with much of what you say. we'll soon see. None of this is new to me... :) #######

Oh, one other thing, ... I AM PERSONAL FRIENDS WITH MURPHY and I find myself out on the darndest limbs, so consider that when you read my rambling comments. Ha!

Have fun watching the action.

####### Thanks very much Dick. Let us agree to differ a little. Fact is the recent breakout of Gold was the largest since 1980. if I had told you a few weeks ago that gold would hit $339 you would have laughed and told me your technicals wouldn't support the run-up!

Yet it happened.

For a reason.

Which is about to made plain for all to see. Won't be long Dick, no way has this bull run ended :)

Cheers - tell Murphy he's doing a SUPERB job! #######

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Dick, all of your techincal analysis is based on two things: past performance (AKA past *psychology* of traders), and the assumption that 1999 is like any other year *prior* to 1999.

If, as many people believe, the second premise is false, it's no stretch to conclude that the *first* premise is on *very* shaky ground.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), October 18, 1999.

Dick - great insight and I agree completely with your analysis. For the rest of the folks just trading on the "news", I believe we, the public, never know what's really going on and therefore MUST rely on the technicals!

Dick's right about what MUST happen for the BULL scenario to come to fruition.

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), October 18, 1999.

But Greg -Dick was basing part of his analysis on a Reuters story, and Reuters CANNOT be trusted.

e.g Reuters just TOTALLY distorted the Denver Gold Miners conference hedging with ABX...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Sorry Greg, I was referring to the gold analysis, not the rest :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

If the market tanks, do you anticipate automatic bank runs?

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), October 18, 1999.

No Mumsie because they've lost all their money ha ha ha :)

Sorry,

that was very insensitive of me :(

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

I don't have money in the market, but I still feel like going WAAAaaaaaaaaaaa. I'm tired of upheaval. Dadgum it.

Give me some likely scenarios and timelines if the good ship Lollipop goes down to meet the Titanic.

Thanks most patient of Andrews.

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), October 18, 1999.

Screw Al-gee, I have first dibs on Pampers with two in diapers here. That ratsaprats.

Can't they keep their bubble afloat while we finish preps? Those maroons.

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), October 18, 1999.

I'm slipping into speaking French... time for bed.

Hit the Pause button somebody...NO TANKING ALLOWED. sigh

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), October 18, 1999.

Pause.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

If the markets are tanking, then the tank is not very deep.

Japan and HK were off less than 2% at the end of their day, and as I write (7.05 EDT) the FTSE and DAX were off about 0.5% each just after lunch.

-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), October 18, 1999.

Lets put it this way. Overall the worldwide markets have dropped between 1-3% overnight after last Friday's action at the NYSE, in anticipation of another "correction" today, Monday. On another thread, it looks like the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) - alias Grenspans' Goons, who BTW have had all weekend to devise a battle plan, are already out in force.

Bear this in mind.

It is no coincidence that the PPT threw everything they had at the market to keep it over the "magic" 10,000 level on Friday...

Had it sunk below that to 9,99+ the bubble.com investors would have had all weekend to wonder if they maybe shoulda woulda get out on Monday.

Should things stabilise today, with maybe even a slight rally, I can see these imbeciles rushing right back in to take over where they left off...

aye aye aye!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

As in...

"They're 'jamming' the S&P Futures now (PPT). Futures up about 5, suggesting a Dow move of about +40 at the open. They will use every weapon in the arsenal today to keep this market 'up' (avoid a crash). Every bullet will be spent.

Will it work? Ultimately, no. But I hope they can prevent a massive decline today for two reasons:

1. It gives the common folk another day to get out.

2. It allows me (another of the common folk) to leverage the downside. I prefer a nice steady decline to a one day wipeout.

-- Me (me@me..e), October 18, 1999."

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Dick, thanks a lot for the market commentary! I hope you can post frequently as you see changes in the technical condition of the market. Do you think we will have our usual seasonally strong time starting in November, or do you think people will be bailing out? I appreciate your brains. Please post as often as you can!

-- Rebecca Waldock (RWaldock@aol.com), October 18, 1999.