BEARX (the Prudent Bear fund) vs NASDAQ) 101 for double decker

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BEARX vs NASDAQ

During the last 3 months the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) has done 25 TIMES better than the once mighty NASDAQ. BEARX has appreciated 25.13% vs a meagre 0.95% of the NASDAQ.

However, before the year is out I estimate BEARX may well be up 50-60%, while the NASDAQ gets hammered for a loss of -20% to -30%. In the mini-bear market in 1998, BEARX soared in value, ranking it the #1 Mutual Fund in the nation.

BEARX has 2 investment objectives: it sells common stock SHORT, and it buys gold shares LONG. The best of both worlds so to speak.

It is not too late to climb aboard. if you are on etrade you can margin it 50% after one month. However in one month the DOW and NASDAQ will be in tatters IMHO.

OK double decker? Are these the "facts" you wanted???

Link at

http://quote.bloomberg.com/gcenter/gcenter.cgi?iquote=BEARX&PERIOD=3M&equote1=&equote2=&equote3=&nasdaq=CCMP&T=markets_gcenter99.ht&x=40&y=6

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999

Answers

Andy NightShift ol' bud,

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Gold has basically been a BAD investment the past decade. Unless you sold it short, and had staying power for the long term, which would have required some MIGHTY deep pockets. Whipsaws galore. Bill Gates and Warren Buffett would have had a tough time.

It's a good investment now, but who knows for how long.

I talked with a wealthy local elderly gentleman just the day before yesterday who's been playing the gold markets continuously for more than 30 years; he says the same thing.

I hope it keeps going up, for those who are in it long. Genuinely I do. I wish the U.S. would go back to a gold standard.

But not for any reasons related to Y2k.

Cheers, ol' bud. Hope you're making some bucks. We still on for those tequila shooters at Area 51? Feb 29 2000 seems appropos....

Your little feathered friend, who's not from Kentucky, (though that's certainly a good place to be from)

-- Chicken Little (panic@forthebirds.net), October 17, 1999.


Chicken I hope for your sake you have plenty of gold under your wings, are out of the stock market, and are loaded to the gills with BEARX.

We'll see who's right.

Luck to 'ya.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.


Hey, CL, like, what's wrong with KY???

MFU

-- Man From Uncle 1999 (mfu1999@hotmail.com), October 17, 1999.


Hey MFU:

Did you read his post? Where in his post did he imply something was wrong with Kentucky?

-- haha (haha@haha.com), October 17, 1999.


Andy, why don't you take responsibilty for your own money and trading?

A measely 60% profit is worthless, compared to your own Put Option positions that could generate 2000% to 5000% profit in a market crash! I allready tripled my money with Hewlet Packard Puts!!!!

Then when you want to cash out, everyone else will be doing the same. It will be a stamped cashing out that could end up in gridlock! I would never let a Fund handle my finances!

-- freddie (freddie@thefreeloader.com), October 17, 1999.



It is stampeed, not stamped.....sorry

-- freddie (freddie@thefreeloader.com), October 17, 1999.

I've had Bearx for the last 18 months (since i decided the market would price in the Y2K risk and head south). If the market looses 60% Bearx should go up at least 300% IMHO. David Tice (manages BEARX)has understood Y2K for a long time (~2 years) and prepared for it.

IF You want a fund that tries to go up the same amount as the market goes down, try RYDEX URSA.

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), October 17, 1999.


Hi fredie,

Thanks for all the advice you've been giving - I would like to have got into some of your put action but I've never done it before and I think now may be too late to take advantage of this opportunity... I may be wrong. On your recommendation I went and signed up for the Options Advisor course but never really got into it - instead I got sidetracked on gold stocks and shares and buying and leveraging real gold and silver. I also shied away from gold and silver call options as I believed and still believe that those will be "fools' gold" if they ever bear fruit because the exchanges will have closed and you will never collect physical because it doesn't exist, or dollars because you can't collect from a bankrupt defaulter.

Tell you what. I have an etrade account, with about $2-3000 in cash available now. Is there any particular trade that you would recommend that I could enter on my computer right now. I'm serious, I'll follow your advice here... :)

As for BEARX freddie - I figured it was the best managed fund out there... and david Tice as ng said is y2k aware...

I do still have your concern about getting out of BEARX though, as you say it could be a big problem if all are trying to do so at the same time... however I don't think that will happen, the fund will never be emptied IMHO, there will always be a hard core that will stay in, and Tice will also take advantage of any up moves if and when the market turns...

Just my 2cents...

Later,

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.


Gosh, weasel boy, I've never seen this technique before. Pick a time period that favors your comparison. Let's compare NASDAQ to Prudent Bear since PB's inception. Since I remember the Dow numbers from Saturday....

Dow UP nearly 40% versus PB DOWN over 40%. FACT

Stretch the time period out over decades and equities prices have been a good investment (though you can always find bear markets). The price of equities has outpaced inflation (due to increases in productivity and prices). With stock, you are investing in a enterprise. If you choose well, you can find companies that will grow over time. Buy gold... and you have a pretty yellow metal. Gold has no inherent productive capacity. Here's a quiz, Sparky, it's the turn of the century (1900) and you have a choice... 1,000 ounces of gold or $10,000 dollars in a fixed "100 year" acount yielding 6% interest annually with dividends automatically reinvested. Let's be generous and say gold is worth $350 an ounce. Your 62.5 pounds of gold now has a value of $350,000.

Hmmm... and our lousy 6% account? Roughly $3.2 million.

That is the difference between a productive asset and a metal.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 18, 1999.


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