Ok - so the dow tanks - then what?

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Lets say the dow crashes in October just like the mystics and statistics say it will.

Then what? Lots of people who thought they were rich or at least secure find out they are not. A bunch of companies fail and people lose their jobs and try to get welfare benefits which no longer exist.

We have a miserable Christmas and huddle down and wait for roll-over. Maybe "terrorist" attacks require the govt. to institute martial law. Anyone got a scenario here? An expected timetable of events? I've heard alot of talk about how "Once the dow tanks its all over." Do you think it will all be over before the witching hour? And if so, why?

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), October 14, 1999

Answers

My,my, my, you sure are chiper and all rosy this morning R!

-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.

Market stays down. I'm guessing it goes to 9200 by years' end. After roll over aparent impact to economy takes it down to 7200. Y2k events begin to stabilize by end of 1st quarter. Market heads up. How far? Who the hell knows. But my guess is that in a flight to safety currencies will continue to find their way to U.S. Even though we will be impacted by effects of y2k we will be in a better position to recover. We also have a track record of relative stability.

I doubt market will return to 11,000 level untill the second half of 2

-- 8 (8@8.com), October 14, 1999.


...of 2001.

-- 8 (8@8.com), October 14, 1999.

I'm not sure that I agree with the analysis, but it goes something like this:

After stock market crashes, people reevaluate the value of their entire portfolio, rather than just making small changes. Part of this reevaluation may include Y2K. If people then find out how likely it is that parts of the world and their trading partners are headed into the crapper because of Y2K, then even long term investors like me will start pulling their assets out of the market.

Some may even pull their money out of the banks and do such foolish things as withdraw cash and purchase gold.

If a critical mass develops, we will have a banking crisis. If this happens, there is a high probability that a depression would ensue as occurred in the 1930's. The alternative would be a really bad hyperinflation. The choice will appear to be Greenspan's, but we'll see.

Either way, it would be bad, and I'm not looking forward to it happening, even though it's very predictable.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 14, 1999.


I had a dream yesterday that the dow would tank about 350 points today. Yeah...yeah...dreams...I know.

-- Debi (LongTimeLurker@shy.com), October 14, 1999.


Stock market drops.

Wealth reduced.

purchases curtailed.

bankruptcies.

during christmas?

add y2k and everyone having to work thru holidays.

more serious approach by media-reports issued.

public wakes up maybe a little maybe alot.

late hoarding.

bank runs. fear.

not a pleasant 2 months up to the really big show.

-- D.B. (dciinc@aol.com), October 14, 1999.


Debi,

I had a dream a couple of weeks ago with people screaming OCTOBER!!! at me. last week a friend of mine had a dream they Y2k happened in October and we were all combining our perishable supplies and organizing food prep and clean up chores. There were soldiers rounding people up and taking them away in vans to perform experiments.

Mind you she has never heard of White vans or Black helicoptors or any of the other conspiracy theories we have grown so accustomed too here. She doesn't surf the net or read the paper or anything. Sent shivers up my spine. I was relieved to find out I wasn't one of the people in the van though.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), October 14, 1999.


R, Which state do you live in? If martial law does occur, I think only the big cities would have something of the sort, asper your friend's dream. I've had a few dreams come true, but some that didn't. Dreams can be an indicator of things to come so I like to keep an eye on mine and others. I also had one other where I saw lots of pelting rain, dead cow in the road and the electricity go out completely in my mobile home. Wondow what the symbology of the first two are (this was one total dream). Thanks for the info.

-- Debi (LongTimeLurker@shy.com), October 14, 1999.

R,

The '87 crash had no impact on XMAS. In fact, retailers had a VERY GOOD XMAS season in 1987.

I would caution you that a bear market does not require a crash. The issue to an investor is whether the market goes up or down, not how fast it moves. While the present generation of investors thinks of a bear market as a 2-3 month crash event, history reveals that most cyclical downturns are long and painful scenarios. Short crash events often recover with a short snap-back. The long and painful downturns are much more debilitating and they take longer to recover. It took 29 years to break even, on an inflation-adjusted basis, after the 1973-74 super bear. It took only 6 years to recover from the '87 crash.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), October 14, 1999.


Mike: I think that was 29 years to recover from the 1929 Crash, not the 1973-74 bear market, which was only about 25 years ago. Other than that, totally agree with you.

-- argh (argh@nowhere.com), October 14, 1999.


"...the mystics and statistics say it will..."

Ah, a Warren Zevon fan. I love that song. The full verse is something like:

"if California slides into the ocean like the mystics and statistics say it will I predict this hotel will be standing until I pay my bill"

Can't remember the name of the song off the top of my head, tho.

-- RC (randyxpher@aol.com), October 14, 1999.


Riversoma,

Better watch out. There's a man with a camera in a black limosine following you around. Did ya notice him yet. He's gonna git you.

-- (Gonn@get.you), October 14, 1999.


Desperadoes Under The Eaves

I caught it, too - made my day.

But, to the topic at hand... I'm still heavily invested in stocks, and about 90% in tech stocks and I have no intention of getting out.

The market does this from time to time and there's nothing to worry about in the fluctuations we're seeing, imho. And yes, I'm putting my money where my mouth is. If I'm wrong, poof goes the retirement savings, except for that portion in muni bonds. If the muni bonds are worthless, well, everyone's retirement will be gone by then.

But I've seen nothing to indicate that this isn't the usual ebb and flow of markets. A few top companies (like Intel and Apple) report that they're not making as much profit as Wall St. expected and things go in the tank for a week or so. Note that they're not having problems, just not as much profit as the analysts wanted.

And to be honest, the more shrill the predictions and warnings become, the less weight I give the idea of collapse - it sounds like desperation for the prophecied events to occur.

Now can I have my cracker?

JZ

-- Jeff Zurschmeide (zursch@cyberhighway.net), October 14, 1999.


A few top companies (like Intel and Apple) report that they're not making as much profit as Wall St. expected and things go in the tank for a week or so.

Actually, Apple posted higher than expected earnings yesterday.

-- (go@apple.go), October 14, 1999.


R, Are you naturally obtuse or do you just work very hard at it? Getting flamed by Flint appears to have taught you very little. (That noise you hear is applause for Flint)Your whining is becoming a bore and you seem to dream way too much. Quit smoking that stuff and get with the program girl! Perhaps you should look into mudwrestling, fer sure!

-- Jake (Jake@Reality.com), October 14, 1999.


"Riversoma, Better watch out. There's a man with a camera in a black limosine following you around. Did ya notice him yet. He's gonna git you.

-- (Gonn@get.you), October 14, 1999."

Dang, its about frigging time for that guy to bust a move. I hate it when men play hard to get.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), October 14, 1999.


I too had a dream that was odd. It was of a huge number of men on motercycles, hundreds of them, driving onto a neighbor's property and down the driveway to the back of the house. Another huge mass of men on motercycles continued down the road hustling people on foot to move faster. I have no idea where they were going. It was VERY militeristic. I have never had a dream before with such a frightening specticle. I was watching these events from my mother's house where dozens of relatives were also looking out the window watching. FEAR was the primary feeling. Also paralysis. I was very happy to awaken. FWIW.

-- Leslie (***@***.net), October 14, 1999.

Argh,

The Dow first crossed 1000 in early 1966. On an inflation adjusted basis, it didn't return to that level until 1995. It may be one huge coincidence, but both the depressions of the 30's and 60-70's took pretty much the same amount of time to come back to the prior highs after inflation. The facts are there, but don't ask me what it means.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), October 14, 1999.


Jake,

I was flamed by Flint? Cool! Where? dang I must have missed it. I'll have to see if I can find it.

To everyone else,

Thank you for the insightful answers about the dow I claim no expertise whatsoever about the stockmarket and am fascinated by it. I wish I had taken more of an interest before.

RE:Dreams; Even waking reality is pretty hard to define and agree upon. Nonetheless dreams always mean something. Whether that dream reveals the future, the past, a current emotional concern or some other random experience has always been impossible for me to tell until later. They are always worth paying attention to though.IMHO

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), October 14, 1999.


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