Experts put most Y2K fears to rest

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http://www.sptimes.com/News/101299/Business/Experts_put_most_Y2K_.shtml

Experts put most Y2K fears to rest

The company that has led the way in warnings says panic and hacker viruses will have a bigger impact.

By DAVE GUSSOW ) St. Petersburg Times, published October 12, 1999

ORLANDO -- The experts who helped prod us into worrying about the Y2K bug have now concluded nothing much will go wrong with the world's computers on Jan. 1.

"The buildup to January is likely to be much worse than the event itself," said GartnerGroup analyst Matt Hotle. That's a particularly significant assessment coming from the Stamford, Conn.-based consulting company. It led the way in warning of dire consequences unless millions of lines of computer software were rewritten to recognize that 00 stands for the year 2000 rather than 1900.

Some companies reported problems this month as more computer functions started using 2000 dates, but most incidents with the feared computer glitch were minor and quickly fixed, analysts with the GartnerGroup said at the research firm's annual symposium here. Lou Marcoccio, who heads GartnerGroup's Y2K research efforts, said the number of incidents will increase again in November as more programs start using 2000 dates and yet again in December.

But a consensus of the firm's analysts who have followed the issue for several years is that the American public will face only isolated problems Jan. 1 thanks to all the troubleshooting that has been accomplished.

"Panic actions of the general public and possible (computer) viruses will have more of an impact on the general public" than any Y2K occurrences, Marcoccio said. He referred to fears that hoarding food, topping off gas tanks and taking too much money out of banks could affect the economy.

GartnerGroup was one of the first research firms to raise flags about the Y2K problem, and its research that covers thousands of companies around the world has been closely watched.

Marcoccio reported "significant progress" in fixing defective software in most countries as well as most industry sectors, even those that had been lagging in their efforts. His latest assessment was based on an Oct. 1 survey and was the firm's first since August. He also warned, however, that too many people and businesses think that the period around Jan. 1 will be the only problem. He said glitches will surface throughout 2000.

Areas of immediate concern include local governments, which Marcoccio said are generally behind in their efforts, and the threat of thousands of computer viruses being released by malicious hackers around New Year's. While those threats may not come to pass, he said law enforcement and security agencies are taking them seriously. Keeping tabs of the situation around the first of the year may be difficult, and the analysts warned people to take care in evaluating information.

"Be very careful about rumors and misinformation," said analyst Andy Kyte, noting that the trustworthiness of information spread on the Internet is a major concern even in calmer times.



-- CD (not@here.com), October 12, 1999

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-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 12, 1999.

"Experts put most Y2K fears to rest"

Again?

Hey maybe there _is_ something I should be worrying about. Hmmm. I think I'll do some research.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), October 12, 1999.


I'd noticed that although Gartner Group continues to produce reports, they've mysteriously vanished from this forum. Here's the explanation.

Well, at least the NWO hasn't yet 'gotten to' Infoliant. And Cap Gemini and Weiss can still be selectively quoted to good effect, if you're careful about it.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 12, 1999.


Flint, Gartner is the main consultant for DoD and the Federal Government. They're the same ones that are saying "Doing nothing at all is probably a safe bet." They changed their tune shortly after they landed their billion dollar contract with Koskinen.

Tell you what. You listen to the government's shills. I'll listen to the folks in the trenches.

-- a (a@a.a), October 12, 1999.


bottom line - y2k BITR or bigger - it certainly appears that all the vectors are convergent on a system wide reset. Sure, banks fail every year. But throw in current inflated PE's, high leverage, pyschological millenium madness, a few real Y2k problems, a dash of even limited last minute anxiety, a prime time to launch a virus or 10, a crazy dictator from anywhere, and what have you got?

ANyone ever hear of a book called "The Fourth Turning"? couple of history/economics types went back a researched things. They make a complelling fact based argument that social,generational, economic, governmental forces run in 80 year cycles - each made of 4 phases, like seasons. I think they go back about 500 years or so. The 80 year window is +/-10years. Civil war period was one, 1920's were one and 2000 is on the -10side of one. If you look at the things we're all complaining about or taking part in, it's deja vu all over again. When the pressures build, a few seemingly random triggers always seems to come along and the cycles repeat. Get the book. It's interesting. and enlightening. A natural part of human life which no pollie or doomer can affect with chatter or debate. we repeat because we can't help it , we're human.

-- toptxs (toptxs1@toptxs.com), October 13, 1999.



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