CIA terms U.S. likely Y2K safehaven

By Jim Wolf

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The United States is likely to emerge as a perceived safe haven for investors fleeing Year 2000 technology problems, the U.S. intelligence community said in remarks to be released Wednesday.

The Central Intelligence Agency and its 12 sister spy outfits said Y2K-related malfunctions had the potential "to cause or exacerbate humanitarian crises" worldwide.

Lawrence Gershwin, national intelligence officer for science and technology, said Russia, Ukraine, other Eastern Europe countries, China, Egypt, India and Indonesia were "especially vulnerable, due to their poor Y2K preparations and, in some cases, the difficulty of coping with breakdowns in critical services in the middle of winter".

Gershwin made his comments in testimony prepared for a special Senate Committee on Y2K. The panel is studying the pitfalls of the coding glitch that could boggle computers and the operations they control as clocks tick over to Jan. 1, when they may mistake 2000 for 1900.

"Some foreign governments and businesses will look to the United States and its better prepared infrastructure to overcome Y2K problems abroad," Gershwin said.

"We expect to see 'safehavening' of financial assets, routing traffic through U.S. computer and telecommunications networks to avoid local bottlenecks, using U.S. transportation facilities to move international trade, and calls on the U.S. military to intervene in humanitarian crises," he added.

Such crises could arise from prolonged power and heat outages, breakdowns in urban water supplies, food shortages, degraded medical services and "environmental disasters resulting from failures in safety controls," Gershwin said.

The intelligence assessment said public behavior in the 80 days before the new year and in response to predicted Y2K-related failures would vary widely and could have "significant economic and political implications."

In developed countries, possible risks include hoarding, heavy bank withdrawals, "safehavening" of funds and purchases of guns and other gear to ensure personal safety, he said.

Gershwin, who is responsible for melding the views of all U.S. intelligence agencies on scientific and technical matters, said Russia and Ukraine were "particularly vulnerable" to Y2K failures.

Their areas of greatest risk, he said, were strategic warning and military command and control, nuclear power plants, the gas industry and the electric power grid.

"The chance of a nuclear incident in Russia, Ukraine or another state with Soviet-designed reactors during the Y2K rollover is low," Gershwin testified.

But he said it was "higher than normal because of the likelihood that the power grid" could experience failures, leading to a reliance on emergency power supplies of questionable reliability.

"We are also concerned abut possible Y2K-related disruptions in countries planning major tourist events -- for example, Italy, Egypt, Brazil and the Caribbean -- should local infrastructures experience significant failures," Gershwin said.

Besides the CIA, the U.S. intelligence community includes the Defense Intelligence Agency, which coordinates military intelligence; the National Security Agency, which conducts global electronic eavesdropping with satellites and ground stations; and intelligence arms of the armed forces and State and Energy Departments.

"Y2K has a unique capacity to produce multiple, simultaneous crises," Gershwin said, adding that its impact was difficult to predict.

"We have an uneven understanding about global and national infrastructures," he said. "And the reactions of decision- makers and the general public in a Y2K-stressed environment are also uncertain."

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Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), October 12, 1999

Answers

"Such crises could arise from prolonged power and heat outages, breakdowns in urban water supplies, food shortages, degraded medical services and "environmental disasters resulting from failures in safety controls," Gershwin said.

Ooh, well, he might have been talking about the state of California so far as I'm concerned, that is about what I expect as a California resident.

he said. "And the reactions of decision- makers and the general public in a Y2K-stressed environment are also uncertain."

Ooh really? We don't? Then how is it the FBI has already laid out the plans to handle those who are an "emotional but not an intellectual people?" I don't see any mystery in how Californians will handle Y2K stress.

The CIA knows better than to egg people on. What a chunk of meaningless fluff the CIA wasted everyones time with.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 12, 1999.

KICK ASS....then the world will REALLY BLAME US if we flal apart!

-- Cory Hill (coryh@strategic-services.net), October 12, 1999.

I read this differently. Yes, it's a polly spin on a Y2K story, but the actual quotes are quite disturbing. This is ignoring the domestic part, but saying that globally it will be dreadful and other nations will look to us. Whether we're in much better shape is really not addressed. But that might not have been the question.

We need to see the full report tomorrow.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 12, 1999.

I wonder if this is a new assessment, or if they are just recycling Gershwin's testimony from Feb.-Mar. Guess I'll mosey on over to their site and have a look around for anything new.

If I'm not back in an hour, call the President.

Godspeed,

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), October 13, 1999.

Germany imports 50%-60% of the gas it needs from Russia, thru the Gazprom gaspipe system, which still finds itself in deep Y2K trouble. Anyway, without power or with far less power in the Russian grid as the CIA foresees, the gaspipes (and many other things ) would not work either in Russia, right? Germany needs this gas (and other key resources BTW) from Russia, otherwise it freezes to death, not only Germans, but also German factories, piping, etc.

Needless to add, Germany is the engine of the European economy.

The US is also militarily compromised by the failing Y2K Russian status.

And so on and so forth.

So... quite frankly... if the CIA knows so much about how bad Russia's Y2K status is, quite frankly what the F**CK is the CIA talking about and why the H*LL are they so G*D D*MN happy?

The same line of thought goes for Brazil, the core of Mercosur, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, Irak, Italy !!, Venezuela, Paraguay, Armenia, Turky, the Caribbean, Mexico, etc., etc., etc.

Would Flint and Hoffmesiter/Sapmeister please care to explain this ??

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), October 13, 1999.