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-- Scott Johnson (scojo@yahoo.com), October 07, 1999

Answers

I considered the wild cards to be roughly as likely as the scenarios themselves

And this sort of stuff is supposed to get Y2K taken seriously beyond the handful who all pretty much know one another?

-- Tired old cliches (what_is_the@point.net), October 07, 1999.

Tired,

At this point, do you seriously think that ANYTHING besides the unexpected occurrence of a "wild card" could cause Y2K to be taken seriously by the mainstream public?!? We've tried logical arguments, common-sense arguments, metaphors (Gary North's metaphor of searching for marbles in a canyon), analogies (the insurance analogy) ... and none of it has worked. Unless a wild card does occur, I believe that the general public will sail right into New Year's Eve without any change in their behavior at all.

I found Bruce's article thought-provoking. But unless you're part of the Y2K community, chances are that you would view it as cliches.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), October 07, 1999.

The sad reaction to provocative essays of possibilities/scenarios is that most everyone views them as predictions, when in fact, they're never really meant to be considered as such. They're intended to emit some semblance of thought geared toward generic protection against any manner of these speculative events. When viewed as predictions (which is 98% of the time), those sketching the scenario get tarred with "failure."

Too many people believe in the "what goes down must come up" philosophy of our world, whether it be the stock market or the information systems we use daily. This mindset only brings cliched reading and ignorance of the sense of preparation that should arise from scenarios.

-- Brett (savvydad@netins.net), October 07, 1999.

Brett, I suspect that you meant, instead of "emit" either "elicit", "stimulate", or "generate"

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 08, 1999.

LOL - yes, I did.

-- Brett (savvydad@netins.net), October 08, 1999.

Hi Ed:

Not to be overly picky about these things, but I believe it was Jim Lord who originated the "polishing marble in the Grand Canyon" analogy -- Gary North expanded upon it later, and put the marbles into assorted boxes.

Just trying to keep our histories in order....

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), October 08, 1999.

Anita,

You're right -- the "marble" metaphor did originate with Jim Lord. Sorry for the mis-attribution.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), October 08, 1999.

Bruce Webster is one of the top people in Y2K in my opinion, and I've been around virtually all of 'em by now. Anyone interested in the subject should always pay attention to what he says. Good job, Scott.

-- Drew Parkhill (y2k@cbn.org), October 08, 1999.

Mea culpa: the line about probabilities was ill-thought-out. Setting aside the fact that I don't detail my odds for the scenarios themselves in the editorial (though I have elsewhere), the wild cards actually map to a different set of probabilities.

Here are my estimates on the wild card (not scenario) probabilities: Levels 0-3: didn't happen and no longer relevant Level 4: already has happened and is relevant Level 5: lower probability (<10%) and window of impact is shrinking Level 6: still a very real possiblity (~50%, IMHO) and would undercut the other Asian economies, which are in bad shape still Level 7: lower possibility (<10%), but would have a profound impact Level 8: low probability (<5%), but again a profound impact; the Wall Street Journal has already speculated that the "terrorist bombings" and subsequent military incursions into Dagestan and Chechnya actually reflect internal power struggles Level 9: came close to happening; still significant political repercussions Level 10: remains to be seen, but I'd put this at 3%

Hope this clarifies. ..bruce..

-- Bruce F. Webster (bwebster@bfwa.com), October 08, 1999.

Sorry for the bad formatting on the last one; I'd repost, but I don't know how to delete the original.

In the meantime, I received e-mail from John M. Wildenthal pointing me to a story that the CIA is now looking into the West Nile fever outbreak in New York as a possible bio-attack (see http://news.excite.com/news/r/991010/15/health-flu-terror). If so, it was a pretty mild one--though we'd be very upset by a bomb blast that killed five and wounded 27.

In any case, I'm sure the CIA and CDC are just trying to rule out all possible sources, but we live in strange days, indeed. ..bruce..

-- Bruce F. Webster (bwebster@bfwa.com), October 10, 1999.