I'm sure that many people here are in a similar situation: what event is it that you will know when you have to bug-out to whereever you would ride out y2k? I'm knd of in a difficult delimma here. I have an apartment in a town of about 40,000 people, where I am also employed. The place I would bug out to if TSHTF is about 45 miles to the south. There is where my family is and where we would hunker down. I wouldn't use the interstate freeway to get home 'cause that would probably be blocked off, but I may be able to use a smaller highway to get there. If worse comes to worse I would just put on my bug-out bag and take off on foot. I would try and follow the railroad tracks or just land nav. my way back, probably traveling only at night and resting during the day. Does anyone have any advice for WHEN I should be taking off? Don't want to wait too long and not be able to get back. What are some sure signs that it's time to go and does anyone have any advice for bugging out? Thanks!

-- Need to know when to go! (stay@alert.com), October 03, 1999

Answers

Just chill out! No need to bug out. It'll probably be more dangerous on your way down there since many will be headin' out. If you HAVE to go then make sure you are armed. But otherwise stay at home. There won't be any special forces guys comin to take you to a detention camp. If TSHTF then EVERYONE will be affected, so why go anywhere? Just have about a months worth of food and water and worst case scenario you sit in the middle of your house and occassionaly fire your semi-automatic at potential looters. No big deal. And this is only IF Y2k is a big deal, probably not.

Relax....

-- Jack Mercer (mercerjohn@usa1.net), October 03, 1999.

Hey guy, really stupid question! Only you know your situation and NOBODY ELSE! Only you must determine when to head south! To depend your life on advice here from people who do not know all the facts about your situation, is just plain stupidity! Get a life!

-- bbb (bbb@bbb.com), October 03, 1999.

There are unlikely to be any utility failures before the 1st. So bug out when you see people emptying the shelves at stores, probably a couple of days before the end of the year, if surveys are anything to go by. Make sure you keep your gas tank topped off every evening in December.

Personally, I think long-term utility failures are extremely unlikely, so bugging out at all is overreacting. If the economy goes into a slump, rather than a crash, you'll wish you had kept earning income as long as possible. If you are unemployed during your bug-out period (or afterwards, because you quit your job), you'll regret it.

-- You Know... (notme@nothere.junk), October 03, 1999.

I don't think you are in danger in a town of 40,000. Would be nice to be with family but I don't think you'll need to rush down there for a while, maybe right before they send out the National Guard.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 03, 1999.

Make sure that in your kit and bug-out bag you have a means of following the news. I have a great multi-band radio that Sony put out a while back that picks up damn near ALL spectrum of radio. As far as the actual timeframe, It's all up to the individual. One of the questions you must be willing to answer are "When is enough enough?" Are you willing to stay for one, two three days with out power, water and heat? I'm going with the combination of "The Three Day Plan" and by watching the media, as well as the trends set by much of the DGI population.

Realize that if you do bug out, you need to have very specific plans. Research is key to a successful evac. When you say you just might 'land nav it' do you have a compass? How about topigraphic maps showing the area and your route? How many others wil be attempting the same thing? How many hazards, both natural and man made will be on your route? Have you got any experience doing land navigation with a compass? Will you be alone on this hump, or will you be with anyone else?

Also keep in mind that the ideas on using 'the smaller highway' to get out is probably running through the head of EVERBODY else as well. Alternate routes including fireroads/breaks goat paths, hell nature trails and other areas must be seem as viable in a true emergency. If doing this, however, be aware of your vehicles limitations. It's one thing to have a 72' Bronco with Mudbuster tires and go offroad...it's an ENTIRELY different issue when you got the little Honda Accord, loaded down with your stuff. Believe me...nothing could be worse than to bog down in the middle of the woods, and having to abandon your stuff because of a lack of ability to transport it.

This leads me to the last part of my diatribe. Have whatever gear you consider to be VITAL pre-positioned so as to keep from having to abandon it. The general rule of thumb is that if you need more than one hand to carry it, (over and above the stuff in the rucksack), you should consider it as castoff in a tight situation. The rule of Special Operations when I was there was you carry what you need to live/survive on your back. anything else is extraneous bullsh*t.

As far as anything goes...just keep your eyes open, watch the market, listen to the news, follow what the .gov is saying, and prepare for what you need. Best of luck to you and yours...

...cause we all gonna need it!

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), October 03, 1999.

When you find yourself wondering if you should bug-out, you should.

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), October 03, 1999.

Bug out NOW! Not a minute to loose! Look out the window - see those cars? They're BUGGING OUT. Don't miss out on this opportunity of a life time!!!

-- Oh (what@bugger.com), October 03, 1999.

Too late. The Alberta Clipper just dumped 14 inches of snow overnight. The roads haven't been plowed. A rig jacknifed on an ice- covered overpass and all lanes out are blocked. A minivan ran out of gas on the on-ramp, and a Cadillac got stuck on the soft shoulder trying to get out. An Explorer, tired of the delay, cut over the median to the wrong-way lane. He got center-punched by a police car, and now all lanes in each direction are blocked.

Make friends with the homeless guys living under the bridge.

-- Spanky (nospam@spamfree.net), October 03, 1999.

If you are only going 45 miles, why don't you just take a few days off and head south at the first sign of it coming down. Why do you even consider waiting? The first bank run, the first grocery store run? Probably head out and have Christmas with the folks and then stay there to seewhat happens. Make sure you take your preps and don't depend on family to feed you. In fact, get your preps out there now. Is your family prepared? Or are you just assuming that your mother has enuff and will be glad to see you?

Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 03, 1999.

Seriously reconsider the comment about night travel- You are much more likely to injure yourself, or be SHOT/MANTRAPPED ie excrement- covered punji-sticked up the wazoo if travelling by night. If I were a GI farmer and saw a shadowy figure passing past my farmhouse- particulary if that figure was wearing night vision goggles you bet I'd probably shoot first and challenge later (if it all). If I saw a lone figure in the daytime limping along with an oversized backpack wearing LL Bean hiker boots- or even better- sliding along on x- country skis, then I'd (the farmer) probably figure that you have someplace to go and are intent on "just passin' thru".

If you are serious about this trip START NOW- start walking- making friends as you go- realize though that's it's probably hunting season (for something) in your area- you'd better wear a LOT of safety orange and be alert for things like vehicles parked at game rail entrances, hunters stands and blinds and NO TRESSPASSING SIGNS! In the rural area I grew up in it was a matter of minor amusement to compare the deer kill count to the "buffalo hunter" stats- we were outside of Buffalo, NY and EVERY year somebody rigged out in the LATEST, most fashionable hunting gear- waving a shiny 5-6 foot walkie talking antenna as he hollared into it "didja get it, Fred"- got "Got" by Fred-from the back usually. Hopefully he survived, regretfully, too many times he didn't.

-- "lurker in chief- Chuck's wife" (rienzoo@en.com), October 03, 1999.

Spend New Years weekend with your family, and bring some extra supplies. Leave the supplies with them. If the lights are still on and the news is good on TV, head back to the city. If the SHTF, you are already where you want to be.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), October 03, 1999.

Your situation sounds like a very good one, unless the town of 40,000 is a suburb or a much larger city. You should be able to "hang out" at your in-town place until it's very obvious it's time to go. And the fact that you have already considered multiple routes helps you even more.

If you have any concern it should be that you will decide you don't need to go when you really do. Make a list of things; power outage, water failure, marked local crime increase, food shortages, etc... that are your sign that it's time to make your 45 mile trip. Who knows, you may not have to bug until weeks or months after things start going bad, if at all.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), October 03, 1999.