Question for Ed Yourdan - Update on position

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I'd like to direct this question to Ed. After his answer, I'd like others to post their comments too.

In the last few weeks, we have seen a jump (big imo) in awareness and information concerning Y2K. This includes articles and industry reports, plus inside information from those in the trenches. Additionaly, it seems as if preparations have also taken a hike upward. I've sniffed around the Net and picked up pieces here and there that have helped me with viewpoint. This of course is to be expected, given that we are now T-100 and counting.

Given that, Ed - do you feel Y2K is going to have a bigger impact then previously expected? Why exactly do you or don't you feel this way? Lastly, are there any new outcome scenarios that you see a greater or lessor likelihood of happening now that you would like to share?

Forum regulars and whoever, can also respond to these questions too.

For me, I feel that not only has actual awareness taken several notches upward across the board, but there has been more (accurate?) reporting on that actual state of readiness then before, resulting in awareness, alarm, preps, etc. Clearly the pace is picking up and we undoubtedly will start to see a kind of feeding frenzy fairly soon. I dread this with all my heart as a lot of people are going to get hurt. It's going to be sickening. I long held to a hopeful "5" on the richter scale, but no longer do I feel that way. Even a 5 would be devestating to our country...but now the outcome seems to surely be greater then this.

-- Ray (shusters@montanasky.net), September 30, 1999

Answers

Don't worry about the icebergs, we're on the Titanic. Three months and counting.

-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), September 30, 1999.

Ray,

One of Ed Yourdon's most recent essays is at this link:

http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2kgreenspan.html

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 30, 1999.


Thank you Linkmeister. I did catch this - and the rebuttal it drew. I now devour everything I can find on the subject, but am still seeking to check the "pulse". It does seem to be quickening, doesn't it?

-- Ray (shusters@montanasky.net), September 30, 1999.

Ray,

A number of things have taken place recently since Greenspan made his remarks. Some of it can be found on the following thread:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001TkZ

"We can't surprise people," Koskinen said. "There are going to be Y2K failures on New Year's Day."

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 30, 1999.


Ray,

Just saw your posting, at 7 AM on Thurs morning. Unfortunately, I can't answer in detail right now, as I'm giving a keynote talk at a software testing and QA conference in a couple of hours. Short answer: yes, there is obviously much more frequent reporting on Y2K stuff these past few days -- but there's still a disconnect between the happy-talk TV sound-bite summaries, and the detailed status information that most of us can find on the Internet. The Senate Y2K Committee's 100-day report is an excellent example -- try comparing the sound-bite summary on CNN (which covered only Bennett's remarks, and apparently didn't feel it was necessary to cover Dodd's remarks) with the text of their report.

Now that we've reached Sep 30, there seems to be a bit more frankness in the status reporting -- e.g., today's report that 30 countries have not bothered reporting the status of their airports and air-traffic control systems. See also the interesting news about failure of small air transport companies, and also port authorities, to report on their status in this country; Gary North has posted links to these reports.

The question is whether any of this matters to people other than the GI's who follow such events closely. I think every one of these reports probably converts another dozen, or perhaps another hundred, DGI's to GI's ... but as a percentage of the nation's population, it doesn't amount to much

Will try to post a longer reply this evening...

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), September 30, 1999.



"The question is whether any of this matters to people other than the GI's who follow such events closely. I think every one of these reports probably converts another dozen, or perhaps another hundred, DGI's to GI's ... but as a percentage of the nation's population, it doesn't amount to much"

And with so few preparing.. so late.. is there time left for meaningful preparation to cushion the blow? I have been preparing - gradually - for 2 years! I can't imagine a newbie DGI>GI convert and having only 9 weekends left for shopping, and limited disposable income each paycheck.

"So much time and so little to do.... wait... scratch that... reverse it." Willy Wonka

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 30, 1999.


Linda/Willy Wonka: Every newbie counts; that's one more preparing and one less who will be a-needing! Trust & Love

-- Carl Eschbach (eschbachcr@ar-arng.ngb.army.mil), September 30, 1999.

9 weekends? $#!+

-- no no no (no@no.no), September 30, 1999.

If someone has money with which to work quickly, as I wish I had when I began 5 months ago as a newbie, they could do it in just a couple of weeks of intensive work, I am certain. As I look back on the intensity with which I have worked with each and every paycheck and a very small overtime settlement from my previous firm, I always reflect that if I'd had all that cash and what I will have in disposable income from now until 12/31/99, I could have done it all in a couple of weeks. Just look at the poster a few posts below, who is just beginning and has $10,000...he can easily do it!

We may not all be able to have retreats, bunkers, solar panels, wood stoves, gardens, wells, streams, etc., but WE CAN EACH HAVE AS MUCH PROTECTION AS OUR MEANS ALLOWS, AND LEAVE THE REST TO GOD. I'd hate for a newcomer to think it was impossible! Keep on keeping on, even if you've just begun. Something is always better than nothing.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), September 30, 1999.


Guy working in the grocery said that people are storing water. I said "we have to." He nodded grimly.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 30, 1999.


Nine weekends!!!! Boy, that's hard to believe. I've been preparing for 2 and 1/2 years and I still feel "unprepared". As Diane would say " - sigh -".

I suggest if you are a newbie, find a GI friend and offer to help around the place for room and board. Or find a community which is set up to take new folks in and have prepared extra which can be paid for with $$$$ or effort. I'd be pretty reluctant to start to prepare to make it with just family at this point, unless your name is Bill Gates and you could just buy Montana!

I think it is interesting that more info is coming out and my DWGI friends still can't smell the coffee. Denial is really very powerful. I think Mable Dodge summed it up best on another thread. Somthing about people not being able to think beyond the moment and delay gratification in order to prepare.

God bless,

-- dr. ben (benalurker@usa.net), September 30, 1999.


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