http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_hyatt/19990928_xcmhy_no_wonder_.shtml

No wonder we're confused

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) 1999 Michael S. Hyatt

For the past few years I thought that when we reached the fall of 1999, we would have a very good idea of what to expect from the Y2K phenomenon. Surely with less than 100 days to go before Jan. 1, 2000, we would know which industries were going to meet the deadline and which ones were not. After years of intense effort and billions of dollars spent by corporations and governments, I expected that as we stood on the threshold of the new millennium a clear picture would finally emerge. Boy, was I wrong.

Imagine a debate titled, "What kind of man is Bill Clinton?" with the two debaters being Barbra Streisand and Rush Limbaugh. After ten minutes you would say to yourself, "Are they talking about the same person?!"

Well, after listening to the recent pronouncements of hundreds of so-called Y2K experts, I have to ask, "Are they talking about the same computer problem?!"

Experts within the computer industry offer diametrically opposed views. Peter de Jager, one of the first to sound the Y2K alarm, now says that we've broken the back of Y2K and any problems will be of the bump-in-the-road variety. On the other hand, Ed Yourdon, a well-respected author of over two dozen books on software, predicts a year of disruptions followed by a full decade of economic depression.

Business leaders are also offering confusing and conflicting information about Y2K -- often within the same statement. A new survey of American corporate executives was released on Sept. 22, 1999. Fully 82 percent of information and technology directors and managers said the Millennium Bug does not pose a "significant business risk." Yet in the same survey, 44 percent of these businessmen acknowledged that all of the mission-critical computer systems at their companies will not be Y2K-compliant by Jan. 1.

If almost half of large U.S. firms will not have their mission-critical systems ready in time (and by definition, "mission-critical" means the systems are essential for the company to conduct business), how can more than four out of every five technology executives say that Y2K does not pose a significant risk?

By far, the most contradictory information about the Y2K issue has come from government leaders. Although most citizens now realize the best way to determine whether a politician is lying is to see if his mouth is moving, we Americans still turn to our elected officials for information and guidance on matters of national importance.

On Feb. 24, 1999, the U.S. Senate's special committee on Y2K issued a major report which described the Year 2000 Computer Problem as "a worldwide crisis" and "one of the most serious and potentially devastating events this nation has ever encountered." The Senate committee warned, "Those who suggest that (Y2K) will be nothing more than a 'bump in the road' are simply misinformed."

And yet, on the very day this report was released, Sen. Robert Bennett, co-chair of the committee, was quoted as saying, "In this country we will have a bump in the road." (Could it be the chairman of the committee was simply misinformed?)

While the committee report itself declared, "The fundamental questions of risk and personal preparedness cannot be answered at this time," the committee's other co-chair, Sen. Christopher Dodd, was advising the public during numerous talk show interviews, "Prepare as you would for a three-day snow storm, certainly no more than that."

The American public's growing concern about Y2K peaked in early March 1999, but was quickly replaced by a sense of relief and complacency in the wake of Bennett and Dodd's optimistic statements. Unfortunately, their soothing words were not backed up by the evidence.

A new Senate committee report was issued on Sept. 22, 1999, with exactly 100 days remaining until the new year. Once again, the public statements by the senators and other government officials simply do not match the details of the report.

In the report we read:

"Many organizations and industries remain unprepared. The Y2K problem still has the potential to be very disruptive."

"Many projected Y2K readiness deadlines are dangerously late," and "Pandemic self-reporting may result in overly optimistic Y2K projections."

"Only 25% of electric utilities routinely disclose Y2K information to the public." Local and regional power outages "remain a distinct possibility."

"Some of our important trading partners are months behind in addressing the Y2K problem and are not likely to avoid significant disruptions."

"The likelihood of disruption in oil imports is high due to the lack of preparedness in key oil-producing countries."

"Severe long- and short-term disruptions to supply chains are likely to occur. Such disruptions may cause a low-to-moderate downturn in the economy, particularly in those industries that depend upon foreign supplies."

"Many small- and medium-sized businesses (in the U.S.) are extremely unprepared for Y2K disruptions. One survey shows that 28% of small businesses do not plan to take any action."

"Rural and inner-city hospitals, nursing homes and physicians' offices have particularly high Y2K risk exposure." This lack of preparedness in the healthcare industry "raises serious patient safety questions."

"Some of the nation's 670 domestic airports remain at risk." Maritime shipping "has not moved aggressively" to prepare, "leading to the likelihood of disruptions in global trade."

Regarding wastewater facilities in the U.S., "Much work remains to be done to ensure readiness." When the Senate report was released to the public, many government officials once again offered soothing and optimistic statements, as if keeping the public from becoming concerned about Y2K was more important than being truthful.

Sen. Bennett, the committee co-chair, said, "There will not be a horizontal, systematic failure," and Y2K problems "will not occur across the nation." He predicted that "most Americans will go through (Y2K) without noticing there's a problem."

John Koskinen, the Clinton administration's Year 2000 czar, said he expected Y2K to have no "significant" impact on the U.S. economy. He added that most of the United States' foreign trade is with developed countries, "and they're doing relatively well" in preparing.

A spokesman with the U.S. Department of Energy said he does not believe that Y2K problems will have any effect on oil prices.

Average citizens should not feel badly if they are confused by all this conflicting information. It is now painfully clear that we simply are not going to get to the bottom of this issue between now and Jan. 1. The only prudent response, therefore, is to err on the side of caution. If individuals and families take steps to prepare now and the disruptions prove to be mild, it's no big deal. But if they do not prepare now and the disruptions prove to be severe, the health and safety of many people will be at risk. As I've said many times before, "It's better to have something and not need it, than to need something and not have it."

Don't let all the conflicting and confusing information keep you from taking action. As the Senate report explains, "Preparation is prudent. Individuals and companies must take charge of their own situation." Take charge of your own situation. The smiling politicians will be nowhere in sight if major problems occur in your community in a few short months.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Y2KOK.ORG), September 28, 1999

Answers

Right on! Even if you don't prepare for Y2K, prepare for floods, hurricanes, winter storms (real ones!), earthquakes, wildfires, etc. The preparations are about the same...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 28, 1999.

http://www.fema.gov/library/emfdwtr.htm

[snip]

Emergency Food and Water Supplies

If an earthquake, hurricane, winter storm or other disaster ever strikes your community, you might not have access to food, water and electricity for days, or even weeks. By taking a little time now to store emergency food and water supplies, you can provide for your entire family.

This brochure was developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Community and Family Preparedness Programs which provides information to help families prepare for all types of disasters.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 28, 1999.

Uncle Bob,

Thanks for putting all those quotes down in black and white. I caught a few here and there and forgot some, but thought I remembered contradictory statements.

I understand better why I get so frustrated and am always second guessing myself on y2k. It gets pretty lonely out here sometimes when you and your husband are the only people in a small town who are preparing.

I also thought by now we would be well into the throes of y2k, either panic buying of goods, or major news coverage, etc. BUT, I grossly underestimated the control the government has over the minds of the public and perhaps over the press.

So here we are. I'm prepared. Your prepared. Now we wait. It's very, very weird. Over a year I've been watching and reading about y2k and today I know no more about what to expect than I did a year ago.

I call this a phenomenon.

-- LindaO (lindao@hotmail.com), September 28, 1999.

People "hear what they want to hear" to reinforce their perception of "reality."

People don't like cognitive dissonance. When they hear conflicting opinions, they latch onto the one that supports their wishful thinking.

Politicians are masters at pandering to people's desires. Don't expect politicians to tell people what they really need to hear. What we need are more leaders and fewer politicians.

-- Steve Young (syoung@exapps.com), September 29, 1999.